SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 5/8
  
  

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Took it on the chin yesterday, & with two favorites coming in, they are now on a 99 for 205 run ( 48.3% ) since the closing weekend of the winter meet. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/8

 

Race  1

1.Villainous

2.Automate

3.Runabout

#2 VILLAINOUS didn't show much in the Stud Muffin, but we dig that Duggan is 4 for 9 with mid level dirt stock who missed the baccala 34-50 days ago, with healthy returns of $10, $46, $8 & $2. Jose sees fit to take the call. #1 AUTOMATE was a well beaten but decently clear runner up when making his first start off the purchase down in Maryland a month ago, and Trombetta sees fit to ship this one northward for today's elevated purse. Three for seven mark at the trip duly noted. #6 RUNABOUT has been a popular item at the claim box of late, having changed addresses after three of his last five treks to the frontside, and with good reason, as this one always seems to give a good account of himself. We're going to relegate to the "unders" however, due to the nibbling nature at the trip ( 13:1-7-3 ). 

 

Race  2

1.Vienna Code

2.Herald Angel

3.Fractorization

#2 VIENNA CODE hasn't shown much in either turf start to date, but they were in fact the first two starts to her career, so we can be a bit forgiving, no? The light bulb has come on a bit since then, and four year old has a bit of a maturity edge over some others signed on, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #4 HERALD ANGEL is 2:1-1-0 outside of stakes company, 2:0-0-0 at the stakes level, so perhaps today's placement somewhere in the middle can yield a positive result, especially as the aforementioned tally came on the inner, with the placing happening under the piloting of Irad. #6 FRACTORIZATION has been in the money in all four turf outings thus far ( 4:1-1-2 ), and that includes a showing right here off the bench. Factor if  fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 10-3(MTO)-5(MTO)-6-2

 

Race  3

1.Idalisa

2.Central Capital

3.Happy Hill Lil

#1 IDALISA is a decently bred ( 348 Tomlinson for the trip ) three year old who went for 4X the stud fee at Saratoga back in 2019, and has a nicely hidden bullet gate breeze amidst a bevy of ordinary moves for today's overture. First sibling to race is out of a dam who was 21:3-3-4 on a fast track, and was sired by an hombre who was a graded winner, banking more than $1.5 mil. 6% trainer & rider click to the tune of 5 for 18 with NYRA dirt stock at 24-1 or less, and just look at the mutuels -- $23, $35, $10, $21 & $13. Watch out, suckahs !  #4 CENTRAL CAPITAL completed the super ( 11-1 ) in her lone dirt start off the pine, and J/T combo popped with a bomber not too long ago. #2 HAPPY HILL LIL was a lively third in her lone "3rd start off a L/O" deal, and may spice things up a bit beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 11:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELCTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Chateau

2.Firenze Fire

3.Drafted

Our top two should suffice for all our rolling action.  #3 CHATEAU appears to be the clear speed of this deal, owns a nice "declining" mark of 15:5-4-3 at the trip, and they'll have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #4 FIRENZE FIRE sure has turned to be a dependent fella, as thus six yr. old "horse" ( You keep on protecting those bad boys ! ) has earned over two and a quarter million bucks to date, and that includes a stellar 5 fer 8 mark in Elmont. Doesn't quite need to come out of the clouds, so expect Irad to keep the above within shouting distance early on. #5 DRAFTED has been freshened up by Duggan after the Toboggan ( a race from which three comebackers went 3:2-0-0-1 in their followup engagements, with an average BSF improvement of 2.3 points per ), and can pick up another minor check here. 

 

Race  5

1.Sinful Dancer

2.Danzigwiththestars

3.One Whirlwind Ride

#5 SINFUL DANCER has shown some guts in overcoming difficulty while placing in both starts thus far, and as this one is actually a touch better bred for the green than the brown, we wouldn't be surprised to see a maiden breaking effort today -- especially with the miracle drug being administered for the first time. #3 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS appears to be the mainger danger to the above, based on the last two adjusted figaros, as well as being in receipt of what's called an "Around the world" treatment this afternoon ( First time Lasix, First time Blinkers, and First time sans tes-tee-klees ). #7 ONE WHIRLWIND RIDE is a tough name to say, but Simmonds charge has a couple'a decent running lines & has some green coursing through his veins for today's initial spin on the sod. Expect Dalton Brown to be pumping this one right outta the gate.  OFF TURF: 11-2-8-9-5 

 

Race  6 

1.Platinum Paynter

2.Thankful

3.Lemista ( Ire )

First of four graded stakes today is upon us, and we're seeing it as a wide open affair.   #4 PLATINUM PAYNTER has oodles of early hoof, is one for three in second off the layoff engagements, and comes in today off a dead game runner up finish at the level just below this in Ozone Park 27 days in the rear. With a dearth of speed signed on, who's to say this one can't go all the way? #6 THANKFUL has been out of form of late, so The Toddster decides to shake things up a bit & give this one another chance on the gramma. The turf bow didn't really get the pulse racing, but hey, she was just starting things out, and get of A.P. have been doing okay on the verde. #2 LEMISTA (IRE) is two for two off a hibernation, and one of those tallies came in her only try making a left hand turn; BIG shot.  OFF TURF: 1-2-6-4-3

 

Race  7

1.Piedi Bianchi

2.Victim of Love

3.Sadie Lady

#1 PIEDI BIANCHI is reunited with Martin for today's Vagrancy, and that's fine by us, as the ol' grey mare owns a snappy 7:3-1-1 w/ Carlito, and one of those scores came off of a break in the action to boot. Going back 2 1/2 years, we see that this one went 2:1-1-0 when teaming up with Manny Man, with the placing occurring here at Big Sandy. #3 VICTIM OF LOVE found the line first in her one and only attempt over this oval, is 3:1-1-0 in "true" starts off a break in the action, and has a snazzy 2 of 3 record at today's distance of ground. Jockey/Trainer combo are 2:1-0-1 together. #2 SADIE LADY hasn't seen another horse after the latches have been sprung in her last duet, and is 2:1-0-1 in ( dirt ) 2nd off the layoff deals while having won half of her six starts with Carmouche in the stirrups. Hard to knock. 

 

Race  8 

1.Traffic Song

2.Lilly Simone

3.Now Yus Can't Leave

#2 TRAFFIC SONG was steadied twice and went three wide when beginning her working life down in Hallandale Beach two months back, but still bested more than half the field that day at 26-1. Filly has been working smartly since, and switches from Rajiv Maragh to Kendrick here, which is the equivalent of getting Lasix for the first time. Expecting a step forward in this spot. #3 LILLY SIMONE hasn't partaken in the super in her quartet of outings thus far, but the numbers are alright, and Johnny gets the assignment. #4 NOW YUS CAN'T LEAVE ( a classic line/scene from "A Bronx Tale" ) was sold for nearly 23X the breeding fee at Ocala in September, and is displaying two crisp morning moves ( one of them from the gate ) for today's debut, and we're hoping it carrys over to today, because there's nothing worse than wasted talent.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-5-6

 

Race  9 

1.Nova Rags

2.Wolfie's Dynaghost

3.Overtook

#2 NOVA RAGS got smacked around a bit when beginning from an inside slot in the Florida Derby, and by no means embarrassed himself when hanging on to 4th behind a duo who went on to run in the Derby. Mott cuts this one back to one turn today to get him some confidence back, and that seems like the wise thing to do, as this one is two for three in doing such. Interesting to see the back to back bullets since last seen, as this one had NO bullets in his dozen workouts prior. #4 WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST blew up the tote board to the tune of 70 clams at first asking back in the fall, and the pedigree tells us that the result may not have been an aberration. Runner up from that day won his next duet, ( one was the Gotham ), and Jose takes over for Junior who is on the above runner. #1 OVERTOOK was given a bit of a break after placing in the Withers, and expensive yearling still has some plenty of upside, in our eyes. 

 

Race  10

1.Sovreign ( Ire )

2.Ziyad

3.Channel Cat

Featured race of the day is upon us, and aside from the usual Chatterpaul nonsense, it's a fairly competitive Man 'o War.  #1 SOVREIGN (IRE) has put together a decent resume' for himself overseas, ( $1.15 million earned ) and that includes a pair of ITM finishes when coming in off a layoff. When it comes to his locally based graded turf stayers off absences of 68-268 days ( ridden by I. Ortiz ), barn is a tight 3 for 4, with returns of $6, $4 & 8. #3 ZIYAD has a 5:1-2-1-1 boxscore off a L/O line, and could be coming late with any sort of pace to cut into. #5 CHANNEL CAT is two of four at today's distance of ground ( 3-16 otherwise ) and is another who would benefit from a pace meltdown.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-2-4

 

Race  11

1.Venus Oyzo 

2.Gathered Flowers

3.Scarabea

We always permit ourselves to go anywhere in a horse's P.P.'s to find something positive ( as they're maidens for a reason, after all ), and #10 VENUS OYZO outran her odds in a big way when finishing 4th at The Spa last summer, and although there's a lot of water under the bridge since then, perhaps a switch to a ( albeit frigid ) journeyman can help the cause. Price play in a finale that's difficult to hug. #5 GATHERED FLOWERS showed stark improvement in the secondary engagement, and while she may have outran her pedigree that afternoon, we'll chunk in with the switch to Franco. #3 SCARABEA closes out our 2,069 word writeup.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  15-91       ( $128.70 )  Beatable Favorites      4-6 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     36-91     ( 39.6% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     9-22      ( 40.9% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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