SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 6/11
  
  

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Blanked on the day yesterday, but we had a couple'a Rollong Pick Three's for over $400 each, and and three Rolling Doubles totaling more than $200, to go along with a successful "Beatable Favorite:.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #6 Don't Call Me Mary


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/11

 

Race  1

1.Mystery Messenger

2.Artemus Citylimits

3.War Stroll

#2 MYSTERY MESSENGER is a very consistent sort who's been a part of the superfecta in eight of his last nine on the gramma, found the line first in his sole start at today's dist., and 16% clan more than doubles that rate ( 3-9 ) with sod sprinters in the 68-168 day bracket at 32-1 or undah ( $13 x 2 & $14 ). Jose gets the call. #5 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS has gone 74-76-83 in his troika of turf starts to date, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Lone "3rd off the layoff attempt" yielded a troubled third place finish, and it's difficult to fault a runner who has missed the tri but once. #4 WAR STROLL has a 3:1-0-1 mark in third off the shelf engagements on the gramma & is also two fer three on the Widener; useable.  OFF TURF: 3-6-2-1-7(MTO)

 

Race  2

1.Viradia

2.Take Charge Tina

3.Awesome Alana

We only have one first draft elimination here, so tread lightly.  #3 VIRADIA has been laid up since being snagged four months ago, and returns a a level slightly below the purchase price. Mare knows where the line is, and has a solid shot if able to get back to the pre layoff form. #2 TAKE CHARGE TINA goes turf to dirt today & owns a 3:1-1-0-1 when doing such, and is halved in price by Bobby Klesaris off a couple'a 4th place finishes. #4 AWESOME ALANA showed absolutely nada after a pair of decent showings at The Big A, and now finds herself at her lowest level to date. May perk up with a cleaner onset. NOTE: AS OF 11:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Family Biz 

2.Grumps Little Tots

3.Chris and Dave

#4 FAMILY BIZ only bested two against slightly weaker when last facing the starter, but that was in the goo, and it ended up being his best wet track figure to date. That being said, if you were willing to prorate that to his best Beyer on a glib surface, than it should be enough to lay over this allotment -- IF permitted to run, as Linda Rice had her license officially revoked by the the New York State Gaming Commission on Monday. #1 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS is back on the sand after the failed turf experiment, and got his photograph taken when last entered at this level; 3:1-1-1 mark when first to load duly noted. #2 CHRIS AND DAVE is quite the warhorse, as he makes his 67th career start this afternoon, and has not only done well at this trip and over this strip, but won in his lone pairing with Looie 2 1/2+ years ago. 

 

Race  4 

1.Chasing a Legacy

2.Gongheifatchoy

3.Papa Smooth

#5 CHASING A LEGACY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) was a bit rank pre loading when beginning his working life a month and a half back, but showed some good speed for a quarter ( 22 & 1 ) before fading. Dam was 16:6-5-1 when dashing on a glib surface, and this one is a half to one who's still running, and has amassed a 36:10-7-7 on the brown stuff ( earning 270 large ). Bombs away !  #4 GONGHEIFATCHOY takes the biggest drop in the game after a career best performance, and despite that, you may still get some value here. #2 PAPA SMOOTH has never been entered this cheaply, and is back on what will likely be his preferred surface down the road while having the eye cups removed.

 

Race  5

1.Sky Kitten

2.Goldmakesmesmile

3.Itsakeyper

#9 SKY KITTEN has lost ground in the lane in her last 11 trips to the frontside, but goes short on the turf for the first time, and note that this one has closed out the tri the last two times she's gone from two turns to one ( 72-1 & 4-1 ). Could perk up. #1 GOLDMAKESMESMILE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but after losing 36 straight to begin her career, went back to back just before the two post start shelvings. #2 ITSAKEYPER may come along for a share.  OFF TURF: 2-1-7-8-5

 

Race  6 

1.Ruthless Gal

2.Holy Breeze

3.Dixie Kitten

#7 RUTHLESS GAL was within three lengths of the leader up 'til the halfway point of her bow on the inner, before fanning extremely wide turning for home & calling it a day. Tagg ain't known for having them fully cranked up at first asking, and we wouldn't be surprised to see something improvement for today's stretchout. Two returnees from that heat came back to go 2:1-0-0-1 next time out, with an average BSF improvement of five points. #5 HOLY BREEZE exits the same affair as the above and should appreciate getting off the wood. #1 DIXIE KITTEN was in the rear with the gear first time out, but solid turf pedigree tells us to give this one another chance.  OFF TURF: 4(MTO)-5-6-8-2

 

Race  7

1.Finding Fame

2.Slam Dunk

3.Tara's Talent

#7 FINDING FAME has been befallen by three layoff lines after just five starts to date, but despite that, has partaken in four of her five trips to the track. Tidy DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Shug is 3 of 7 with locally based optional dirt stock who crashed the party less than 51 days ago, w/ payoffs of $7, $5 & $3. #2 SLAM DUNK ( second half of the McGaughey uncoupled entry ) was a well beaten but gamely runner up behind Miss Brazil who's done some nice work, and there's another trainer stat in play here, as barn has won with four of their nine dirt equines who have been 1-2-3 48 to 50 days ago & are 11-1 or lower ( $3, $4 & $8 x 2 ). #1 TARA'S TALENT as good as any for the show dough.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 DON'T CALL ME MARY fills the bill, as The Toddster is 1-10 in all applicable categories. 

 

Race  8 

1.Point Him Out

2.Good Old Boy

3.Montauk Summer

#11 POINT HIM OUT put forth an okay showing in a very similar spot a month ago, and gets a little bit of an upgrade in the jockey department for today's second off the layoff jammie. Meeeeeeeeekest of choices in a race that's difficult to hug. #10 GOOD OLD BOY overcame a seven wide trip in an eight horse allotment to get up in time when nicely spotted in the first start off the bench by Maker, but six year old totes the most weight of his career ( by four pounds ), so we'll leave beneath. #4 MONTAUK SUMMER posted an adj. 79.7 in his only try off the pine, and that would fit decently enough vs. these.  OFF TURF: 10-5(MTO)-6-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-4-3.

 

Race  9 

1.Freudian Analyst 

2.Hoping and Praying

3.Artie's Lit

#2 FREUDIAN ANALYST is most definitely a professional maiden these days, but we always utilize the entire history of the winless when looking for something positive ( as it can yield some big prices at times ), and as this one does have a few decent running lines ( compared to the rest of this bunch ) we're willing to give him a shot for today's secondary turf route. In the FWIW department ( regarding today's 2X attempt ) we see Storm Cat as a paternal grandsire, and a paternal granddam who was a nose shy of being two for three in turf routes. #5 HOPING AND PRAYING beat just two home in the overture ( a horse & the chase ambulance ), but has since received the unkindest cut of all, and we'll chunk him into the cake batter. #11 ARTIE'S LIT rounds out the top three ( which is another way of saying that we have nothing else to say ).  OFF TURF: 5-6-8-2-1

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  46-274     ( $325.10 )  Beatable Favorites    6-17  ( 35.3% ) Favorites   Win %:    110-274  ( 40.2% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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