SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/10 - Keeneland - Spinster - Happy Columbus Day ! ( In advance )
  
  

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About a breakeven day for us here yesterday, as our two winners keep us on an 18 for 50 run, and we tossed in two exacta boxes of $80 & $74, along with another successful Beatable Favorite, as well.

Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis of the Belmont card, just go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 10/10 - Keeneland - Spinster - Happy Columbus Day ! ( In advance )

 

 Race 9

1.Bonny South

2.Dunbar Road

3.Letruska

Today's featured race is the Spinster, and for some edification on this race, check out this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spinster_Stakes . As for the race itself, we'll give a nod to #2 BONNY SOUTH. 4YO was a hard charging runner up behind today's favorite in the Personal Ensign, and is reunited with his favorite helmsman this afternoon, as she's 6:2-3-0 with Florent in the stirrups. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, barn is 3 for 5 with graded dirt stayers in this odds range ( with this jock ) off breaks of 36-50 days who are NOT receiving the miracle drug. Gal could use with some pace to cut into. #1 DUNBAR ROAD won the Alabama in her only third off the layoff deal, and is 4:2-0-1-1 when breaking from the pine; will need some room late. #4 LETRUSKA is 3:2-0-1 in second off the L/O affairs on the sand, and well travelled runner doesn't need to take her track with her, as this is her 7th different venue from her last eight trips to the track. Deserving chalk. 

 
Belmont            ( Current ): 37-147   ( $326.20 )  Beatable Favorites    2-15( 13.4% ) Favorites  Win %:   43-147   ( 29.3% )( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-50        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-48     ( 54.7% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017