SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 11/27


Just a reminder that for complete coverage of today's Hollwood Derby from Del Mar, merely go back one page.  

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #5 Favor

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 11/27


Race  1

1.Inevtabl Connection

2.Glen Echo

3.Munny Bolt

#5 INEVTABL CONNECTION was a gamely and well clear runner up when starting things out up at The Spa back in mid August, but as often happens with the babies, was sent to the sidelines afterwards. Gelding has fired off two back to back bullets for the comebacker, before Klesaris dialed it down a bit while looking for a good spot. Logical if sound, so take a peek in the paddock. #1 GLEN ECHO is a $50,000 bred animal who went for 3X that much at KEE a bit more than a year ago, and progeny of one of the hottest sires in the land has a couple of crisp morning moves for today's bow. #6 MUNNY BOLT completes the "Nassau County Triple" based on the back to back ( albeit money burning ) ITM finishes ( finishing directly in front of a next out winner in both ). 


Race  2

1.Marvelous Maude


3.Masterof the Tunes

#1 MARVELOUS MAUDE ( Well, this may be the only time we'll have the chance to incorporate a "Family Guy/Maude" clip, so here ya are ) has improved with each passing turf start, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Gal has never finished out of the money, and Jockey/Trainer combo have done quite well here of late. Factor in a win at today's distance of ground, and you have a logical contendress here. #3 INSTINCTIVE is but three parts of a length shy of shooting for the grand salami here, and although she's never seen this green before, we love how she doesn't need to take her track with her, as she starts on her 8th different oval ( and fourth different in succession ). Troika of career best figaros staring at your in grill is nothing to sneeze at. #4 MASTEROF THE TUNES may come along late for a small share.  OFF TURF: 9-5-11-2-4


Race  3

1.Citizen K 



#2 CITIZEN K has been a completely different equine since switching surfaces off an elongated absence, as DePaz charge has hit the board in both tries on the gramma, and could be sitting on a real corker in cutting back for today's 3rd start off the pine. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #7 YARROW appears to be the only one with a shot of upsetting the apple cart here, based on the solid efforts shown in both starts since returning off a break. We love the fact that after setting a 48 & 4 half when losing by just a length in a turf route two back, this one overcame a boatload of trouble to complete the exacta in a dash when running a 46 flat half. Mainger danger to the above. #1 D'VINICRIS seems to have found his niche with the newfound short game on the sod, and could trip out for a slice of leftover apple cobbler.  OFF TURF: 4-1-6-2-12


Race  4 

1.Pier Forty

2.No Burn 

3.Texas Swing

#2 PIER FORTY is a nibbler by rote ( 28:2-7-5 ), but one of those two tallies came in one of his two "second off the layoff" engagements, and although camera shy -- the 10:0-6-1 mark in this zip code is honest enough. Mild choice in a race with but just one first draft elimination. #8 NO BURN procured the sheepskin by a pole at Big Sandy on all Hallows Eve, and was transferred from one William to another right after he left the test barn. New shotcaller calls upon the pre-claim pilot today ( something we always dig ), and as this one has ascended the Beyer scale over his last triad, we'd be remiss in excluding. #9 TEXAS SWING bested conditional platers last time out, and while facing sterner, can definitely make some noise. 


Race  5


2.Golden Plume

3.Windfall Profit 

#1 FLAUTO has yet to miss a superfecta skipping over the blades, and despite fading in the comebacker, can move forward with that under her girthstrap. Meeeeeeeek selection. #8 GOLDEN PLUME had a positively grotesque trip in Elmont 44 days back, ( "Bumped hard at the break...taken up.", but lost by just a par that day, and the top three have come back to ring up a 3:2-0-0 mark in their followup events. As we alluded to earlier, the J/T pairing does fairly well in tandem. #9 WINDFALL PROFIT finished just a length & a half behind the above last out, and could move up with the blinker addition.  OFF TURF" 11(MTO)-7(MTO)-8-1-2


Race  6 

1.Send for Me



#4 SEND FOR ME is a well meant firster who has a nicely tucked away gate move for today's initial foray, and Into Mischief progeny is toting along a 394 Tommy to boot. When it comes to his dirt firsters ( "Dirsters" ? ) at this level, Thomas is two of three right here, and one for one with female stock, and just look at the healthy mutuels -- $18, $13 & $11. Of the six members of the immediate family tree, three won at first asking, and three broke their maidens second time out. We see this one as the only runner with a chance of besting #1 SPLITSECONDSONNY who transitions from the green to the brown today, and appears to be better bred for the latter. #9 MARYSVALE flashed some early hoof before fading on the 7th of November, and as Mott runners improve with time, can improve a bit today.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 FAVOR doesn't make our first draft.


Race  7

1.General Ken

2.Sy Dog


We're not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly.  #1 GENERAL KEN was privately purchased after demolishing eight others in the Wilmington curtain raising, and followed that up with a gusty nose win at odds on 51 days after. You must beware the bounce, but this barn doesn't send over too many short animals, so we'll lean this way. #3 SY DOG went from zero to hero right outta the box ( coming home in 58 & 2 ), and while we feel he may have outrun his pedigree a bit that day, we'd be silly to exclude. #7 MASETA improved by about 20% from the first start to the next, and while a bit light from a BSF standpoint, could land a share should a hot pace develop.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-6-5


Race  8 

1. Vindictive

2.Manor House


#5 VINDICTIVE was rotten at 4/5 in an optional event at Big Sandy on Oct. 2nd, but before you right this one off, we see that this one has been extremely disappointing in both one turn events, while finding the line first in both starts when making that 2nd left. There could be a bit of value here. #4 MANOR HOUSE returned off a nine month hibernation to grind out an 11-1 win down in Hallandale Beach three fortnights back, and while this one disappointed in his sole 2X try, we always give an animal a couple of attempts under a particular set of circumstances, and we fins it encouraging that the connections are paying the freight for Romero to fly up here for the mount. #2 BOURBONIC gets some much needed class relief and completed the tri behind a next out winner in his one start off a L/O. 


Race  9 

1.Orglandes ( Fr ) 

2.Summer in Saratoga

3.La Dragontea ( GB )

#2 ORGLANDES (FR) got up in time vs. slightly weaker, and although this is a bit of a tougher spot, we're assuaged by the solid 13-1 placing at this level just before the score. As good a shot as any in a wide open feature. #1 SUMMER IN SARATOGA has won six of her last seven turf routes where the jock stayed aboard, and what the hell's wrong with that? #4 LA DRAGONTEA (GB) completes the Escargot/Buffalo Wings/Fish & Chips triple based on being a neck short of having won five of her last eight, while having the ability to send or rate a bit.  OFF TURF: 3-5-4-2-8


Race  10

1.Value Proposition ( GB )

2.Arrest Me Red

3.Chewing Gum

#7 VALUE PROPOSITION (GB) shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, for a runner who's missed the board but twice in his 12 race career ( with half of those outings being scores ). #3 ARREST ME RED will be led over today by a shotcaller who;s 3-8 with turf sprinters who who 45-67 days back that are NOT receiving the wonder drug ( $4, $6 & $7 ). #2 CHEWING GUM rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 12-5-1-11-10


Aqueduct           ( Current ): 18-86     ( $126.20 )   Beatable  Favorites    1-7 ( 14.3% )  Favorites   Win %:    30-86     ( 34.8% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 10-68      ( $87.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    31-68     ( 45.6% )

Belmont              ( Final ): 68-300   ( $523.40 )   Beatable Favorites   10-32 ( 29% )   Favorites  Win %:   100-300  ( 33.3% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3072-15804 ($26,574.30)  Beatable Favorites : 388-1412( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5962-15886 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3157-16372 ($27,393.50)   Beatable Favorites : 403-1480( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6125-16473 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout