SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 11/28


Just a reminder that for coverage of today's Matriarch from Del Mar, merely go back one page. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 11/28


Race  1


2.City At Night


These three and no more to start out the day.   #6 RUTHENIAN was green in start #1 before being marooned in the followup engagement, but despite all that, posted some decent speed figures in both. New jockey aboard today, and there may be some hidden value here, given that this one has finished in the back half of the pack in both outings. #5 CITY AT NIGHT has hit the board in both "non stakes" events, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. After a solid debut, #3 PARATUS had no palpable excuse for the flop a month and a half later, but given the Hall of Fame trainer calling the shots, we'll give him a chance to make amends.  OFF TURF: 9-3-10(MTO)-1-2


Race  2

1.Kissing Frogs

2.More Good Times

3.Lady Fatima

#3 KISSING FROGS has only beaten home three in her last quartet, so Mott does the sensible thing in making this one available for purchase for the first time. The good news, is that aside from him being 2 for 2 when spotting his turfers in the claiming ranks for the first time ( 59-67 days ), 'Frogs owns a win & a placing from as many firm course efforts off a break in the action. Slight edge. #2 MORE GOOD TIMES was a decent enough 4th in the comebacker, and the P.P.'s show a win and a runner up finish from as many "2nd off the bench" jammies. Recognize that the triad who finished directly in front of this one last time out have amassed a 3:2-0-1 mark ( from two separate events ) in their followup heats, with an average Beyer improvement of one point. #8 LADY FATIMA exits the same race as our secondary selection, and has a decent rapport w/ today's helmsman.  OFF TURF: 4-1-6-2-9


Race  3

1.Bustin Bay



#3 BUSTIN BAY gave the gramma another shot after getting destroyed when trying it in the overture, way back when, and the result was just as disastrous. Filly is back on the brown stuff this afternoon, and aside from having done well in Ozone Park, this miss now lures a 30% rider into the irons. From a limited standpoint, Vasquez is 2-5 with mid level dirt dashers who missed the baccala 10-50 days back, & are dropping 50% or more ( $11 & $14 ). #4 GRINGOTTS has a decent ledger right here, and is a lovely 4:2-1-1 beneath today's single digit jockey ( 18:2-1-1 otherwise ); could make things lively in the exotics. #5 AMOS runs sans eye cups for the first time, and could scoop a small share of the cookie dough.


Race  4 


2.Water's Edge

3.Emperor's Cause

#5 SCOTTO showed a decent "Z" pattern in the most recent effort, when losing 2 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half before gaining more than 7 1/2 lengths from that point to the line. Shoukd be rolling late once again. #1 WATER'S EDGE has yet to miss an exacta and has been freshened up a bit for this. We'd prefer a different pilot, but waddya gonna do. #4 EMPEROR'S CAUSE was a game runner up in this race on the 8th of October ( outrunning his 11-1 offering ), and while you always have to exercise caution off a career best effort, we're compelled to include. 


Race  5


2.Mr. Connecticut

3.Bless Bless

#6 BERNARDINO has been lightly raced throughout his six start/six year old working life, but grey "horse" ( You hang on to dem dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) owns a few decent running lines, including an adjusted 69.7 right here last year -- which was also his only "2nd off the L/O" attempt. We like the newfound speed shown in the recent comebacker. #11 MR. CONNECTICUT came along stoutly to secure 20% of the pot when facing similar in Long Island a touch over a month ago, and given the two figures earned to date, seems to be a deserving favorite. #8 BLESS BLESS showed appreciable improvement when transitioning from the green to the brown a half month back, but might have outrun his bloodlines a bit that day, so we'll relegate to the "unders".  OFF TURF: 9-10-6-11-2


Race  6 

1.Lil Commissioner

2.Danny California

3.First Constitution ( Chi )

Watching 'The Wizard of Oz' whilst typing away tonight, and boy, does it still hold up.  Speaking of the "Little Munchkins", we landed on #2 LIL COMMISSIONER in this spot. Atras trainee spit the bit when overmatched in his first start off an elongated absence, but is back in for a tag today, and that's highly relevant, as this one has scored in his last three affairs with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. Gelding is one of two in second off the shelf engagements, and owns stellar marks both at this trip & over this strip. #7 DANNY CALIFORNIA may not appear to have displayed much over his last pair, but as this one has always been about 8.6% better on a fast track than one with moisture in it, you can feel free to upgrade those proportionately. Best days may be behind him, but we like how there's no scary drop, despite Dubb having earned back all his bread after the April purchase. Aside from the initial North American start, #8 FIRST CONSTITUTION (CHI) has continued his steady Chilean ways with a pair of placings at this level, and is sensible once again. 


Race  7

1.Too Sexy

2.Love and Thunder ( Ire )

3.Raven's Cry

One can never be TOO SEXY ( believe us ), especially in regards to this #3 having won two straight and three of five, and you simply have to love the way this one came motoring home in 45.9 when blowing away similar at Elmont on 10/17. As this one has essentially ascended the Beyer ladder over her last nonet, who truly knows where her ceiling is. Looking good on paper, but with a dearth of speed signed on, could be hampered by a slow opening quarter. #2 LOVE AND THUNDER (IRE) encountered more traffic than me on The Snail the other day, but was photogenic the only time he went from two turns to one, and gets the better of the two Ortiz's this afternoon. #8 RAVEN'S CRY found the line first in his only second off the shelf deal on a firm turf course, and owns a win & a 2nd from as many times when breaking from the outermost two slots.  OFF TURF: 1-4-6-7-2


Race  8 

1.Sir Alfred James

2.Hopeful Treasure

3.War Tocsin

We're not really feeling the heat from this heat, so exercise a bit of prudence in this year's rendition of the Fall "Highweight" Handicap, which has become a shell of it's former glory, as just TWO runners were assigned 130+ pounds ( 131 ). What the hell's wrong with adding some more weight to these ??   #6 SIR ALFRED JAMES went coast to coast like butter and toast down in Louisville just a week & a half back, and we like the confident shipping & placement by Cash, who brings McKee along for the ride. #4 HOPEFUL TREASURE is a bit light from a class perspective, but tallied a win the only time he raced here, and has the sort of "declining" mark which we've grown to love ( 13:5-3-1 ). Finishing up the "All Shipper" triple with #8 WAR TOCSIN, who can plod along for a piece. 


Race  9 

1.Mischievous Kiss

2.Anador ( Fr )


You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the #'s of #9 MISCHIEVOUS KISS ( who should be no worse than third for those punting to show ), as this has gotten better with each passing start. Successful sprinter transferred to the sod game with aplomb earlier this month, as he rallied nicely to win a stakes at 7-1. The 401 Tomlinson figure for the trip tells us the result was likely not an aberration, and we'll ride the hot hand for a barn that's 5:3-2-0 with ungraded turf stayers who won off of this kind of break that are NOT receiving the big "L". #7 ANADOR (FR) stepped right off the plane to win her 1st N.A. outing by a noggin' a month back, and is facing no stars for her primary tangle with winners. #10 CAIRONI finished just behind 'Kiss last out, so is an obvious player once again.  OFF TURF: 10-2-9-11-6


Race  10

1.Funny Enough ( AE )


3.Wicked Happy ( AE )

#11 FUNNY ENOUGH (AE) needs one to defect in order to get saddled up today, but should that come to bear, would be dropping in class off a placing at Laurel, while toting along a bullet breeze from ten days back. #8 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS was kept in jail by Linda Rice ( who is STILL awaiting final determination on her license revocation ) after being snagged on the 3rd of October, and comes back at that same level for a barn who's lost 26 straight. #12 WICKED HAPPY (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but posted an adj. 70.1 the only time she was in a third off the respite situation, and can make some noise with these.  OFF TURF: 4-16(MTO)-2-12(AE)-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:43, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 6 & 10 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Aqueduct           ( Current ): 19-96     ( $140.60 )   Beatable  Favorites    1-8 ( 12.5% )  Favorites   Win %:    33-96     ( 33.6% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 10-68      ( $87.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    31-68     ( 45.6% )

Belmont              ( Final ): 68-300   ( $523.40 )   Beatable Favorites   10-32 ( 29% )   Favorites  Win %:   100-300  ( 33.3% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3072-15804 ($26,574.30)  Beatable Favorites : 388-1412( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5962-15886 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3157-16372 ($27,393.50)   Beatable Favorites : 403-1480( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6125-16473 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout