SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 1/14


Just one chalky winner on the day yesterday ( along with a $125 triple box ), however, we still have a 138:41-20-15 mark on the stand ( $276 Bet/$415.50 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least the 2nd race on January 27th.

We maintain our streak with one winner each day of the meet, with multiple winners on 13 of 16 of 'em.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/14


Race  1

1.Frosted Wild Ride


3.Dario's Angel

#6 FROSTED WILD RIDE has merely bested the chase ambulance in her last duet, but drops 10G, 10lb.'s, and is in receipt of the wonder drug for the first time. That last part is of some relevance, because from the most minuscule of samplings, this barn ( who has done some "miraculous" work at the stand ) is two of three with said move for their dirt dashers who missed the money 6-50 days back ( $10 & $24 ). #7 BECAUSEOFTHEBRAVE has hit the board in her last troika, and is another getting the "Big L" for the 1st time; logical contendress, especially with the nice draw. #5 DARIO'S ANGEL showed improved speed in the most recent, and is reacquainted with blinks off the nice showing. 


Race  2


2.Competitive Saint

3.Just Right

#2 ALCOOLS is a fairly consistent sort who's partaken in the superfecta in seven of his last eight dirt events, and has done nice work at today's distance of ground. From a trainer stat perspective, barn is two of five with locally based mid level sand sprinters ridden by today's parent who missed the board 6-50 days back & are 15-1 or undah ( $10 & $15 ). #3 COMPETITIVE SAINT has been exclusively a turf runner over the last 20 months, but won his lone dirt attempt, so how can we exclude -- especially as he finds himself at his lowest level to date. #5 JUST RIGHT is confidently hiked up in class despite having been kept in jail since being purchased, & you have to dig the nice "declining" mark of 10:3-2-1 at The Big A.  NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3


2.Early Glow


#1 KHULUQ showed marked improvement from her first start to the followup, and has Lasix administered for the first time this afternoon, which can only help, as Brown is a poyfect three fer three when doing that to his maiden special weight dirt horsies returning off absences of 34-50 days ( $8 & $3 x 2 ). #6 EARLY GLOW put forth a so-so effort when switching to the main for the first time, and should move forward in today's second off the shelf engagement; blinks & juice now a part of the makeup as well. #3 MASABEEH bested half the field when a mite green when starting things out , and as this one is substantially better bred for the brown than the green, we'd be shocked to not see a big move forward today. 


Race  4 


2.Starship Goddess

3.Gentle Annie

#3 CARTWHEEL  ( 1-4 in second off the shelf engagements ) looks solid for Kantarmaci in this spot. #2 STARSHIP GODDESS picked up 20% of the pot in her lone start off a break in the action ( directly behind a next out winner ), and despite being out of jail, is hiked up off the recent purchase. #7 GENTLE ANNIE can land a share. 


Race  5

1.Lookin for Trouble

2.Our Man Mike 

3.Storm Shooter

#5 LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE returned off a bit of a freshening to finish a well beaten, but gamely runner up in this race right around turkey time, & while a nibbler by rote, could move forward with that under his girthstrap. Mild choice. #6 OUR MAN MIKE finished just behind the above in the aforementioned affair, & as this one has historically been about 12.1% better on a fast track than a wet one, there may be a bit of value here. #1 STORM SHOOTER hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but has hit the board in 4 of 5 and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. 


Race  6 

1.B C Gory Days


3.My Man Matty 

#4 B C GLORY DAYS ( we've had some ) has done some fine work on the main thus far in his career ( 6:M-2-2-1 ), and while we're not sure what's going to get this one over the hump today, we'll give him a tepid nod because of the overall body of work vs. a hum drum bunch. #1 LINDROS gets a jockey change today after the whip went airborne in the most recent, and draws snugly for today's second start off the shelf; recognize that his sole start over a glib surface yielded an adj. 76.6 ( that came sans Lasix, which is now a part of the makeup ). #8 MY MAN MATTY begins his working life this afternoon, and does such with a bullet gate breeze -- something that ALWAYS merits inclusion. Late bloomer is from our favorite sire, and you should know that three of the six immediate members of the family tree scored at first asking.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish !! ), DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7

1.Hammerin Aamer

2.Lost In Rome

3.Musical America

#6 HAMMERIN AAMER was hiked up for the 3rd straight time, and came withing a length of securing the first hat trick of his career, before transferring barns -- and now being moved up in class once again. Hard trying 8YO has done splendid work in Ozone Park, and was a jazzy runner up ( at 18-1 ) under today's helmsman when finishing just behind a next out winner three years back. #3 LOST IN ROME is another who likes it here, and is still kept above November's purchase price, despite the last place finish on New Year's Eve. #2 MUSICAL AMERICA is fleet afoot and can land a share.  NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 

1.Yankee Division

2.Seven Lillies


#2B YANKEE DIVISION won this race two fortnights back, and is eligible to run in it again with the "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump now. Gelding is 10:6-0-2 at this trip ( 12:1-1-2 otherwise ), 4 for 8 in Queens, and Rudy Rod has won with half of his eight Aqueduct based female optional dirt stock going short, who won less than 51 days in the rear ( $27, $10 & $8 x 2 ). #1 SEVEN LILLIES has been in the money over his last quintet, and factoring that in with a 6-7 ITM superfcta rate when loading first, we have no qualms with tossing this one in the "unders". #6 BLEWITT is in excellent form these days & it's hard to argue with that 9:5-3-0 ledger on this strip.  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9 

1.Tap the Heart

2.The Honorable Ruth

3.Lost Anchor

We close out the day with the cheapest race they run on the grounds.  #12 TAP THE HEART got smacked around a bit at the onset when starting things out back in November, and T.P. wipes the competition clean with his second time starters on the dirt taking the biggest drop in the game ( 34-61 days ) as he's won with half of his 20 starters ( $5 x 4, $4 x 3, $3 x 2 & $6 ). Lasix now a part of the makeup. #11 THE HONORABLE RUTH has yet to miss the money, and given the drop & medication addition, how can we leave out? #14 LOST ANCHOR is another one plunging & catches a glib surface for just the second time.  

Aqueduct          ( Current ): 41-138  ( $415.50 )   Beatable  Favorites    4-21 ( 19.1% )   Favorites   Win %:    52-138     ( 37.7% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout