SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/30 - Happy Memorial Day - God Bless Our Fallen Heroes
  
  

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Just a reminder that for selections & analysis of the three Grade One's from Santa Anita Park today, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/30 - Happy Memorial Day - God Bless Our Fallen Heroes

 

Race  1

1.Royal Currency

2.Secret Hideout

3.Sister Linda

#5 ROYAL CURRENCY down the lane in the day's opener. #6 SECRET HIDEOUT stayed in the thick of things a bit longer second time out, and draws ideally while catching a glib surface for just the 2nd time. Could spice up the exotics a bit. #3 SISTER LINDA hasn't been seen since finishing up the track when debuting last year, but that proved to be a key race, as there have been three next out winners from the nonet to race again ( from just seven different races ). DePaz takes over for Michelle Nevin, who has been suspended for a drug violation.

 

Race  2

1.Classic Lady

2.She's the One

3.Pop the Bubbly

#6 CLASSIC LADY owns a 4:2-2-0 mark on the Widener, is 3:1-1-0-1 off a break in the action, and 3:1-1-0 w/ Joel in the stirrups. Slight edge in a race with no first draft tossouts. #3 SHE'S THE ONE has yet to miss an exacta, and that includes placings right here, AND in second off the bench engagements. Logical. #5 POP THE BUBBLY ( another having exited the suspended Nevin's barn ) completed the tri in her one similar L/O scenario, and is 5:2-1-1-1 with today's jock aboard.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-6-4

 

Race  3

1.Major Spin

2.G Munning

3.Aggregation

#2 MAJOR SPIN went pillar to post like butter and toast two dozen days back, and while it may have been attributed to a wet track, we're betting that the light bulb has come on for this one; will need to out hustle two other speedsters breaking outside of him. #10 G MUNNING more than outran his turf pedigree when trying the stuff for the first time, and stakes placed runner is now back on the main, while getting Lasix & an outside post position. #1 AGGREGATION came back off after eight flips of the calendar to procure the sheepskin in Ozone Park a month and a half ago, & teh bloodlines tell us the result was likely legit. Factor once again. 

 

Race  4 

1.Biondi

2.Nikostratos

3.Uragano

#1 BIONDI showed marked improvement when coming out of hibernation to grab 20% of the pot in this race at The Big A. HUUUUUUUUUUGE jockey switch today, and while a bounce is always possible, we'll give him the nod with a dearth of speedsters signed on. #4 NIKOSTRATOS has placed in both starts to date, and gets juice & the eye cups for today's comebacker; barn knows how to have 'em ready off the bench. #8 URAGANO goes over the blades for the first time, and is a half to stakes winner Niko's Dream, who went 17:4-4-2 over the stuff, banking nearly $267,000.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-3-7

 

Race  5

1.Freedom Machine

2.Waterville

3.New Ginya

#2 FREEDOM MACHINE found the line first in her only "second off the hiatus" 2X turf deal ( which came in one of her two tries on this course -- the other being a 3/4 length defeat ), and picks up Looie off the recent troubled trip. Mild choice. #3 WATERVILLE has gone 51-61-73 thus far, so who truly knows where her ceiling is? Regression always feasible in "2nd off the respite/2nd time Lasix" deals, but we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude. #9 NEW GINYA got up in time to win at first asking back in the fall, and gets the big "L" for today's return. Factor if sound & fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 8-4-9-3-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, #8 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  6 

1.Laobanonaprayer

2.Make Mischief

3.Bank Sting

#6 LAOBANONAPRAYER was an open lengths winner in her lone try over a local fast track ( at this level ) to the tune of $19, and from a DRF Formulator standpoint, barn is a snappy 4 of 7 with dirt stock ( 63-1 or less ) not getting Lasix, off break of 51-61 days ( $3, $7, $8 & $9 ). #7 MAKE MISCHIEF is 9:5-2-1 outside of graded stakes company and excels at today's distance. #4 BANK STING is a poyfect two of two in 2nd off the jammies, and is another who digs this trip. 

 

Race  7

1.Captainsdaughter

2.Yo Cuz

3.True Empress

#5 CAPTAINSDAUGHTER was bizarrely spotted in a turf try last time out, after having hit the board in all six dirt tries to date ( trainer is 5% for a reason ), but gal has done quite well here, and blinkers are now a part of the makeup. Could be overlooked in this spot. #2 YO CUZ was a'stumblin' & a'bumblin' at 1-5 in the Stallion stakes, and ended up missing the board that day. Deserves a chance to make amends. #7 TRUE EMPRESS has partaken in the superfecta in five of six, and expect Cancel to take his usual overland route in possibly landing a share here. 

 

Race  8 

1.Tin Pan Alley

2.Hot Rod Rumble

3.Best Idea

#4 TIN PAN ALLEY has been beset by two layoff lines after just as many outings, but improved in the secondary one, and with a bit of maturity & a reduction in weight, can do the same once again. Tepid choice in a race with but one first draft chunk out. #8 HOT ROD RUMBLE shoots for the hat trick today, and as he's entering off back to back solid efforts, we'd say it's well within reach. #2 BEST IDEA got smacked around a little bit when placing in the allowance heat on May Day, but was still able to pick up 20% of the pot, and can do even better with a tidier sojourn.  NOTE: AS OF 12:23, #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  9 

1.Therapist

2.Somelikeithotbrown

3.City Man

#3 THERAPIST has been in the super all three times he's started on the ITC, comes in of a strong runner up finish when going seven panels on the next course over, and from a trainer stat perspective, C-Squared is three of five when stretching out his ungraded turf stock off of this kind of break at 10-1 or less ( no Lasix ), with payoffs of $6, $8 & $10. #7 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN hasn't faced the starter since early November, but is 5:1-1-1 off a sabbatical, & has a 3:1-1-1 mark on the Inner Turf Course; hard to dispute the 8:4-4-0 boxscore at today's dist. also. #2 CITY MAN has a decent overall body of work with Rosario legged up, and can't fault those taking a favorable view.  OFF TURF: 1-4-8-5-2

 

Race  10

1.Celebrity News

2.Sinfully Sweet 

3.Mo Nighean Don

#6 CELEBRITY NEWS displayed little when facing winners as a maiden in a stakes affair on 4/24, but is reacquainted with the miracle drug today, and this one is a half to three multiple turf winner, who banked 538K, 137K, & 112K respectively. Another one for us that's switching to Saez. #4 SINFULLY SWEET burned some bread when returning off a five month L/O, but can improve with that under her belt. #2 MO NIGHEAN DON flashed some improved speed last time out, and may jazz things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-7-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 13(AE)-2-4.

 
Belmont             ( Current ):42-180   ( $235.30 ) Beatable   Favorites    3-10 ( 22.2% )  Favorites  Win %: 66-180 ( 36.5% ) ( As of Monday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 5-25      ( $30.40 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-23    ( 34.1% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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