SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/23 - Our 17,500th Race Analysis...Having never missed a day in 8 1/2 years
  
  

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Today marks our 17,500th race analysis for Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Raceway, and Capital OTB ( heving NEVER missed a day over 8 1/2 years ), and we want to thank you all so very much for your continued support over that time.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #12 Devil or Angel


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/23 - Our 17,500th Race Analysis...Having never missed a day in 8 1/2 years

 

Race  1

1.Rush to Honor

2.Cagney

3.Crawford County

#6 RUSH TO HONOR returned off a bit of a freshening to finish a daylight clear runner up in an off the turf event on the main three weeks back, and aside from this four year old having a maturity edge over nearly the entire field, is decently bred for today's initial try over the gramma ( a half to a stakes winner on the gramma, who banked more than $122,000 there ). #4 CAGNEY has improved with each passing turf start, so who knows where his ceiling is in that regards; could be a doodle dandy here at a price. #2 CRAWFORD COUNTY skips over the blades for the first time today, & although the resume' ain't much, daddy loved the stuff, and this one could spice things up.  OFF TURF: 1-2-6-9(MTO)-5  NOTE: AS OF 1:55. #7 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  2

1.The Honorable Ruth

2.Rough Tough Love

3.Dawnland

#3 THE HONORABLE RUTH came from the back of the pack to complete the triple at 29-1 on the 5th of the month, and from a DRF Formulator point of view, Ferraro is a sublime 6 for 9 with mid level dirt stock who hit the board less than three weeks or less ago ( 7-1 & beneath ), with a WHOPPING R.O.I. of $7.34. #4 ROUGH TOUGH LOVE has gone 35-51-56 in her fast track races, and 21% shedrow is 5-14 with BEL based dirt entrants at this level who scored < 46 days in the rear. Drops off the tally. #6 DAWNLAND has hit the super in four of five & draws ideally. DUE TO A GATE SCRATCH THE #1 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  3

1.Afilada

2.Cupid's Girl

3.Oh Mrs. Maisel 

This is our 17,500th race analysis here at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Raceway, and Capital OTB, and as ALWAYS, we want to thank you all for you're loyalty & patronage. Boy it went fast...   #4 AFILADA has a steady body of work, and has been kept in jail since the May 13th purchase. Mild choice in a that's difficult to embrace. #3 CUPID'S GIRL comes in today off a career best #, and takes the biggest drop in the biz; sensible. #7 OH MRS. MAISEL was inexplicably spotted on the lawn last time out, but perhaps that was done to throw an ugly line on the page to dissuade potential suitors from dropping a slip today for a barn having a nice meet.  

 

Race  4 

1.Landbiscuit

2.Chess'sDream

3.Girl Dad

#8 LANDBISCUIT came from the back of the back to close out the exacta directly behind a next out winner in a near identical spot last month, and is another meeeek choice in a heat with no first draft tossouts. #5 CHESS'S DREAM is one of two off the shelf, 5:2-2-0 @ the dist., and is up for grabs for the first time. #6 GIRL DAD completed the tri at 21-1 in his sole start off a respite & has fared well at today's distance of ground.  OFF TURF: 8-1(MTO)-3-9-5

 

Race  5

1.Sweet Franny Lu

2.Cara's Dreamer

3.Instinctive

#2 SWEET FRANNY LU bested slightly weaker here a month ago, and given that she's now two fer three on the ITC, we'll give her a shot to repeat -- especially with her ability to send or come from off the pace. #8 CARA'S DREAMER has partaken in the superfecta in her last seven starts over firm going, and that's reason enough to toss into the hopper today. #5 INSTINCTIVE is a well traveled sort who was nicely spotted for a starter allowance win at Philadelphia Park recently, and finished 3rd in her one "third start off the break" attempt. Bobblehead comes in for the ride.  OFF TURF: 2-5-4-6-9

 

Race  6 

1.Brilliant Brooks

2.Mr. Pete

3.Mad Munnys

#7 BRILLIANT BROOKS has won two of three, has hit the super in all three outings when last to load, is 3-5 at the trip, 2 for 4 @ Big Sandy, and from a trainer stat perspective, De Paz is "De Man" with his platers who won 26-50 days in the rear -- and with some healthy prices, too ( $17, $18, $19 & $3 ). #1 MR. PETE has always been quite the steady sort, and that includes owning a fantastic 6 for 12 record when breaking from the innermost two post positions ( 6 for 39 from the three hole on out ). Don't overlook. #6 MAD MUNNYS hasn't seen the scene in a couple of Memorial Days, but has been working well for the comebacker, and it's been quite some time since he's been entered this cheaply. 

 

Race  7

1.Goodnight Olive

2.Customerexperience

3.Besty Blue

#6 GOODNIGHT OLIVE has done very little wrong in her working life, but appears to be a bit of a fragile sort, so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. That being said, the pre-layoff jock comes back, and even if she's lost some of the steam off her fastball, should be too much for these. You can feel free to upgrade the most recent of the #5 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE by about 14.8% or so, as historically, this one has been precipitously better over a fast track than a wet one, and factoring in this one having as many wins as places & shows combined, we'd be remiss in excluding. #2 BETSY BLUE is 13:6-5-1 lifetime, and what the hell's wrong with that?  NOTE: AS OF 1:54 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  8 

1.Big Package 

2.Matta

3.Principled Stand

#2 BIG PACKAGE is but a schnoz shy of being 2-2 in second off the L/O events, has fared well on a firm Widener, and Donk has been honking his way into the winner's circle at quite some rate this spring. Should appreciate the class relief. Whatsa Matta with the #5 here? Not much, as this one is a snappy 3:1-2-0 in second off the layoff tries, while you'd be hard pressed to find a poor running line along the way. He's a notso bad. #1 PRINCIPLED STAND is a five year old with just four starts to his credit ( uh oh ), but three of those were wins, and with a death of speed signed on, this one could be long gone once they spring the latches.  OFF TURF: 1A-4-3-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 2:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Barone Marchis

2.Suit of Armor

3.Raw Courage

#11 BARONE MARCHIS immolated some baccala when taking the overland route 48 days back, but gets a trainer AND jock upgrade off that disappointment, and there's a nice Formulator stat in store here, as Noda has won with half of his eight sand stock claimed 46-50 days ago ( $16, $7 x 2 & $5 ), with sub categories of 1-1 here/w/ Irad & 1-1 at this level. #7 SUIT OF ARMOR is on an upwards trajectory when it comes to his starts over a glib surface ( 41-54-62 ) and we see no reason to leave out. #5 RAW COURAGE could perk up being switched back to his favorite surface.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 DEVIL OR ANGEL  NOTE: AS OF 2:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont             ( Current ): 70-307  ( $410.90 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-20 ( 20% )  Favorites  Win %: 112-307 ( 36.5% ) ( As of Thursday morning ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )       Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:  8-26      ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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