SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/6 - Whitney Day
  
  

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Have a fun & safe Whitney Day, everyone ! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 8/6 - Whitney Day

 

Race  1

1.Battle of Normandy 

2.Alexis Zorba ( GB )

3.Cara's Prince

#7 BATTLE OF NORMANDY begins his working life this afternoon, and does such with a couple'a decent gate moves in tow. $60,000 bred animal went for more than 8X that amount across the street 51 weeks ago, so is obviously well meant. Dam was a multiple stakes winner on the lawn ( who won her bow ), and the other three members of the family tree that we were able to dig up, won their first, second, or third start, as well. Lone sibling to date has gone 55-61-80 in her three starts to date -- with the lattermost coming in her initial turf attempt on this course a fortnight back. #2 ALEXIS ZORBA (GB) ( played by Anthony Quinn in 'Zorba the Greek' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zorba_the_Greek ) immolated some baccala in her initial North American start, but has the hood added & must be left in the mix. #3 CARA'S PRINCE could spice thing up underneath.  OFF TURF: 4-2-5-3-2

 

Race  2

1.Madame Rose 

2.Mostly Harmless 

3.School of Thought

#3 MADAME ROSE is officially a professional maiden, but has partaken in the superfecta in four of her last five -- often outrunning her odds in the process. Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeek selection. #5 MOSTLY HARMLESS has been kept in jail since the June 30th snag, & would need to win in order for the connections to show a profit -- should another claim ensue. Lasix now a part of the makeup. #1 SCHOOL OF THOUGHT is switched back to the main after a disastrous turf attempt, & is reacquainted with Irad, who piloted her to an honest showing two starts back. 

 

Race  3

1.Khali Magic

2.Happy Sophia

3.Quality Stones

#2 KHALI MAGIC down the lane. #1 HAPPY SOPHIA is one of two in second off the shelf tries over a glib surface, and although this mare has amazingly, never drawn the rail on a fast track, she is in fact 4:1-2-1 when beginning from the two slot on a fast track. Not hopeless for a share at double digit odds. #3 QUALITY STONES is the clear speed of this deal & digs today's distance of ground, as proven by the 16:4-4-2 ledger for such.

 

Race  4 

1.Eyes On Target

2.Good Governance ( GB )

3.Founder

These three & no more for all your rolling action. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the last quintet of #1 EYES ON TARGET, as this one has done nothing but improve over that time, & that includes a solid placing in a near identical spot down in Elmont four weeks back. Note that the one who finished directly behind 'Target, came back to win, essentially replicating the prior speed figure. #2 GOOD GOVERNANCE (GB) ( scratched Thursday for this ) is one of two off "true" breaks in the action & showed in the Bernard Baruch two years back on the inner. Logical. #4 FOUNDER ( weird name for a horse ) hasn't been in action since last fall, but has a touch of back class & rates a chance if sound & fully cranked up.  OFF TURF:4-7-9(MTO)-10(MTO)-11(MTO)

 

Race  5

1.Dynadrive

2.T D Dance 

3.Safe Conduct

#5 DYNADRIVE blew up the tote board to the tune of 92 clams on the first of July, and although this one steps up to a stakes today, it's not that much of a hike, as it's a restricted event. We'll take a shot at another big offering. #6 T D DANCE was a bit rank in a G3 event down at the Shore, and beat only one home that day, but we'll give him a chance to make amends in today's 2nd time blinkers spot, as he receives his 11th different jock from that many afternoon treks to the frontside ( huh ?? ), and it's a goodie in Looie. #2 SAFE CONDUCT found the line first in his one try right here & owns a stellar 5:3-1-1 ledger at today's dx.; logical.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-2-6

 

Race  6 

1.Olazabal

2.Disarm

3.Perform

#8 OLAZABAL ( Perhaps named after the famed golfer ? ) begins his working life here, and does such with some decent morning moves on the worktab. This one's a half to Graded Stakes placed Texas Swing, who has a 10:4:1-1-3 boxscore, earning nearly 160 large. From a DRF Formulator aspect, 16% Delgado is a crisp 7:3-2-0 w/ male dirt firsters at this level not getting the wonder drug ( 27-1 or less ), with returns of $25, $9 & $5. Getting a square price beneath a revitalized Javy. #2 DISARM completed the triple first time out down in Louisville, and that's proven to be a key race, as nine returnees have amassed a cumulative 9:3-1-1-1 mark from eight different races, with an average BSF improvement of 3.7 points. Should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there. #3 PERFORM placed at first asking & should be in the mix once again. 

 

Race  7

1.War Like Goddess 

2.Virginia Joy ( Ger ) 

3.Key Biscayne

#6 WAR LIKE GODDESS has done very little wrong throughout her abbreviated career, as the 9:7-0-1 mark shows, and that includes a two of two record on the ITC -- with one of those coming after a break in the action. Hard to knock. #2 VIRGINIA JOY (GER) has hit the board in both "3rd off the layoff" attempts, & is a poyfect two of two with Irad in the stirrups. We like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit. #5 KEY BISCAYNE shoots for the hat trick today, & while that may be a bit out of reach, a minor award is feasible.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-6-5

 

Race  8 

1.Saint Tapit

2.Fluid Situation

3.Perfect Munnings

We're not feeling the love here, so feel free to go get some FREE water at The Big Red Spring. However, for rolling bet purposes...  #8 SAINT TAPIT was a visually impressive winnah right outta the box on Long Island in late June, and the lone dirt returnee got his Polaroid taken when next in action, improving by 6 pts. in the speed figure area. #5 FLUID SITUATION is eligible to improve with today's class drop. #1 PERFECT MUNNINGS was a snappy victor in his one spin over this oval, and it came at this tricky distance. NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #9 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  9 

1.Matareya

2.Wish You Well

3.Hot Peppers

We've always loved these seven furlong Grade One deals, especially the Test -- and for you're viewing pleasure, we've enclosed extended coverage of one of the greatest races we've ever seen...You vs. Carson Hollow. This is the 20th anniversary of that event, and although we were watching it in the backyard by the shoe board -- the whole place was literally shaking. Here it is, and enjoy...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u03E155wcIE .  #1 MATAREYA tries to get one for the thumb this afternoon, and dazzling filly definitely doesn't need to bring her track with her, as she starts at her 7th different venue from nine affairs, and has yet to miss an exacta when going one turn. Only thing that could hinder her chances would be a tardy start, but going 7/8th's, she should be easily able to recover from any issues early on. A single for those looking to mingle. We see the #4 WISH YOU WELL as the only one with a chance to upset the above, based on the 90.9 in her sole start over a track labeled FST, along with the numerous bullets on display for today's comebacker. #6 HOT PEPPERS has won five of six dirt deals, and what the hell's wrong with that? 

 

Race  10

1.Olympiad

2.American Revolution

3.Happy Saver

Abbreviated, but decently competitive rendition of the Whitney this year, and we'll give the slight edge to #4 OLYMPIAD. Mott charge has been a completely different animal since trying the two turn game, as he's never been any worse than second at any point of call in winning five straight. Fella has some positive familiarity with this oval also, & sheds 32 ounces off a tally -- which is something we always dig. #1 AMERICANREVOLUTION found the wire first in his one "third off the respite" heat, and it happened to occur right here in Togatown. #5 HAPPY SAVER has yet to miss a tri, and who are we to rock that boat ?  NOTE: AS OF 1:11, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Annapolis

2.Nations Pride

3.Stolen Base

Couple'a solid sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play for this Grade 1, and as we're starting to see gremlins dancing in front of our eyeballs, let's get to 'em directly.   #6 ANNAPOLIS ( who is 3 of 3 over firm ground ), will be brought over by Mott, who's a saucy 6:4-2-0 w/graded sod stayers who won < 68 days back ( ridden by Irad ) at 5-1 or under, and are NOT getting the wonder drug ( $4.25 ROI ). #4 NATIONS PRIDE: Appleby is also quite "saucy" when it comes to his turf routers not getting the "Big L" off absences of less than 56 days ( $2.81 return on investment ). #5 STOLEN BASE ( spotted on Friday ) lost by only a neck in his one second off the L/O spot, and could be coming late with any sort of pace to cut into.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-9-5  NOTE: #3 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  12

1.Sir John

2.Your Mission

3.Dreampoint

#5 SIR JOHN hasn't been in action for ten flips of the calendar, but returns WITH Lasix for the first time, and WITHOUT is dangling participles. Barn a decent 3-13 when making the aforementioned medication change to those going long on the lawn at this level ( 68+ days ). The payoffs for that survey were $6, $7 & $10, and there's a sub category of 1-1 with Junior aboard. #2 YOUR MISSION has completed the exacta in two of three outings thus far, and The Toddster is 4-12 with locally based turfers making that 2nd left, off breaks of 1-43 days ( getting the juice ). The parimutuel returns for those wins were $10, $4, $5 & $7, & this one draws snugly. #8 DREAMPOINT closes out the loooong day.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-1-7-3-8

 

Saratoga               ( Current ):  31-172  ( $289.20 ) Beatable    Favorites:   5-14  ( 35.7% ) Favorites Win %: 55-172  ( 32% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  6-31      ( $50 )        Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  9-30    ( 30.3% ) 

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Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3351-17014 ($28,678.50)  Beatable Favorites : 410-1503( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6402-17024 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3436-17582 ($29,497.70)   Beatable Favorites : 425-1571( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6565-17685 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


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