SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont at Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 9/23


Just a pair of chalky winners on a mess of a day chock full of the stuff. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont at Aqueduct - 9/23


Race  1

1.Hay Stack

2.Summertime Fun

3.Invest Wisely

These three, and only these three for all our rolling action to begin the day. #1 HAY STACK got smacked around a bit when debuting a month ago, but still managed to pick up the smallest check in losing by less than three beneath Irad, who returns today. January foal has a maturity advantage over just about the entire allotment, and the pedigree says to give this one another chance; no worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit. #8 SUMMERTIME FUN was in the back half of the pack first time out, but is extremely well bred for this sorta deal, and can move forward with that under her girthstrap. #9 INVEST WISELY split the field when beginning her working life on the 7th of August, but four returnees from that affair came back to amass a 4:2-0-1-1 mark in their subsequent outings, with an avg. Beyer improvement of two pts. per.  OFF TURF: 9-5-1-2-10


Race  2

1.Boss Cara 

2.Sweet as Sugar

3.Dame Cinco

#2 BOSS CARA had done some excellent work since being snagged back in February ( 4:1-3-0 ), but after the recent flop, is now back in for a quarter. Logical. #1 SWEET AS SUGAR immolated some baccala when tossing in the first clunker of her career up at Finger Lakes last month, and is now made available for the first time. Factor if sound. #6 DAME CINCO was a lively and well clear runner up in her sole "2nd off the bench" attempt, and makes sense despite the mild hike in class. 


Race  3

1.Ocean's Reserve

2.Today's Flavor

3.Central Pride

#7 OCEAN'S RESERVE is the sort of horse that your dad told you to stay away from -- the type of animal who seems to hang while burning a bit of money -- but appears to lay over this entire field sans our secondary selection, and while we'll be using, it's with more than an ounce of trepidation. Oh yeah, Javy took off some mounts this past weekend ( along with getting fined $1,500 ), so check for any changes. #1 TODAY'S FLAVOR appear's to be the only one with a chance of upsetting the ice cream cart, based on the collection of adjusted figaros, along with the fact that he's been gelded since last in action. Take a looooong look pre race because of the respite. #4 CENTRAL PRIDE completes our "Ruthian" triple, based on a return to the main & elimination of blinkers. 


Race  4 

1.Foolish Ghost

2.Big Engine

3.Big Bobby 

#2 FOOLISH GHOST ( cross entered yesterday, so glance at the scratchboard ) played the fade in the comebacker, but runner with a nice "declining" boxscore ( 40:10-7-5 ) is a swift 3 for 4 in second off the bench jammies, and has won more than a third of his starts at today's distance. Fantastic DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Rudy Rod is a near poyfect 7:6-1-0 with 2nd off the claim, locally based optional sand stock off L/O's of 32 days or less, over the last four years ( $5, $36, $10, $7, $8 & $11 ). #8 BIG ENGINE ( uncoupled entrymate w/ the above ) is backed by a nice trainer stat as well, as the aforementioned shotcaller is 3 of 8 with local runners of this ilk who hit the board less than 38 days back ( ridden by Trevor ). #9 BIG BOBBY is a bit of an in and outer, but scored the only time he was last to load, and you may get some good value here.   NOTE: AS OF 10:55, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.


Race  5

1.Tizzy in the Sky

2.Winter Mischief

3.Beachfront Bid

Another heat where our listed troika should suffice.  #3 TIZZY IN THE SKY has closed out the exacta in both starts to date, and 20% shedrow is a crisp 4-13 with dirt dashers at this level ( getting Lasix ) who hit the board less than 51 days back at 8-1 or undah ( with a sub category of two of three with females ). #5 WINTER MISCHIEF gets her working papers today, and well bred runner totes along a healthy 404 Tommy for the bow. #2 BEACHFRONT BID is just as decently bred for the brown as the green, and her results on the latter aren't half bad, sooooo..... 


Race  6 

1.Disarmed ( AE )

2.Eye Witness

3.Twenty Six Black

#12 DISARMED (AE) needs a bit of luck in order to make it over to the frontside today, but should that occur, would be supported by a wonderful Formulator statistic, as over the last 260 weeks, C-Squared has a 17:10-1-2-1 ledger with mdspwt turf sprinters off L/O's of 18-37 days ( no juice ), with a whopping ROI of $5.52. #4 EYE WITNESS went for nearly 11X the 60K stud fee at KEE a year ago, and like most Ward firsters, is working extremely well for the curtain raising. Turf pedigree a tad unproven, but given the connections, we wouldn't be surprised t see a strong performance. We're not quite playing roulette in selecting the #2 TWENTY SIX BLACK here, as this chap closed out the tri in a similar placement up north two months back.  OFF TURF: 11(AE)-10-2-9-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO TWO SCRATCHES, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-8-3.


Race  7

1.C Falls

2.Search for Truth


#4 C FALLS is a bit of a nibbler, but comes in off of back to back career best #'s, and with a dearth of speed signed on, just may lead this grouping on a fruitless pursuit. #1 SEARCH FOR TRUTH hasn't seen the scene in a couple'a Labor Days, but the Mad Genius knows how to have 'em ready after elongated absences, and this one draws snugly. #8 SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY has had a bevy of bad trips & could surprise with a tidier sojourn.   OFF TURF: 4-10-8-14(MTO)-13(MTO)


Race  8 

1.Gambling Girl

2.Les Bon Temps

3.Lady Mine

#6 GAMBLING GIRL put it all together in her 3rd start with an open lengths score in the Adirodacks, and when it comes to his Aqueduct based maiden breaking dirt dashers at this level ( 10-49 days ), The Toddster is a tight three of five ( $4, $5 & $10 ), with a sub category of 1-1 w/ I. Ortiz in the stirrups. #5 LES BON TEMPS has not had many 'Good times" since the gutsy maiden win at CD back in the spring, but new barn is 3-9 with ungraded sprinters on the local main ( sans wonder drug ) beneath the 17-1 water mark ( $14, $8 & $7 ). #4 LADY MINE has hit the board in three straight, and we dig how there was no regression when facing victresses for the first time. 


Race  9 

1.Busy Morning

2.Bustin Bullet 

3.Aunt Virgina

#10 BUSY morning drops in class off a nice showing, scored by a half'a dozen he only time she dashed, and from an itty bitty sampling, Abreu has won both times he's cut back his turfers who were 1-2-3 < 68 days ago at 12-1 or less ( $17 & $8 ). Should be able to sit an ideal trip. #7 BUSTIN BULLET has never been farther back than three lengths in any turf try, and lone win came underneath today's jock. #4 AUNT VIRGINIA was compelled to show a different dimension after a'stumblin & a'bumblin at the onset last time out, but was able to rally nicely in completing the exacta. Can't fault those taking a favorable view.  OFF TURF: 8-13(AE)-1-9-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Aqueduct               ( Current ):  12-49   ( $49.20 )   Beatable  Favorites      1-3    ( 33.3% )  Favorites  Win %:   23-49    ( 46.9% )    ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  9-37      ( $77 )       Beatable    Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )      Favorites  Win %:  15-36     ( 41.7% )


Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3433-17431 ($29438.80)  Beatable Favorites : 417-1530( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6555-17441 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3517-17999   ( $30,258 )   Beatable Favorites : 432-1598( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6565-17685 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout