SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 11/27


Blanked yesterday ! 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #9 Alluring Angel ( GB )

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 11/27


Race  1


2.Red Butterfly

3.Spinning Colors

This troika and only this troika to start out the final scheduled turf day for at least the next four months in these parts.  #5 VAX showed marked improvement when catching a glib surface for the first time 23 days back, ( we're sure the blinkers didn't hurt, either ), and late foal is backed by a solid DRF Formulator stat as well. Over the last 1,826 days, Maker more than doubles his normative 17% batting avg. with mdspwt dirt stock who hit the board < 45 days in the past that are NOT getting the wonder drug, as he's 11:4-3-2-1 w/ that sort ( $2.71 ROI ). #2 RED BUTTERFLY switches over to what we feel will be her preferred surface down the road, and we like that there's no drop off the flop. #3 SPINNING COLORS should be no worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit.  


Race  2

1.Wicked Lady

2.I'm Nervous Now

3.Holiday Jazz

#7 WICKED LADY was a daylight beaten, but decently clear runner up directly in front of a next out winner in her first start off the claim, and looks solid back in a near identical spot this afternoon. #3 I'M NERVOUS NOW has been quite flat in her last pair, but got the Polaroid taken the only time she was made available for purchase, and is eligible to rebound at a decent price. #1A HOLIDAY JAZZ totes the lightest impost of her career, and note that the lone win has come both at this trip and over this strip. 


Race  3

1.My Man Matty

2.Today's Flavor

3.Clash A.J. 

Another heat where our listed triad should suffice.  #4 MY MAN MATTY begins his working life this afternoon, and late bloomer ( a whopping 26 months between the first workout and the last ) has a couple of decently hidden morning moves on the docket. Recognize that Javy has won with 5 of his last 11f or this clan on the dirt at 12-1 or beneath ( FTS'ers-50 days ), with returns of $20, $3 x 2, $8 & $11. #6 TODAY'S FLAVOR has been beset by a few layoff lines, but has also closed out the exacta in three of four. Mixed signals. #7 CLASH A.J. makes his second try off gthe bench & gets back to the main.  NOTE: DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR 3RD CHOICE SHOULD BE #3 -- NOT #7.


Race  4

1.Beachfront Bid

2.Timeless Journey 

3.To a T

#2 BEACHFRONT BID went pillar to post in an off the turf deal right here back in mid October, and before you think she had it all her own way that afternoon, keep in mind that she set faster splits than the prior try. Repeat well within her grasps. #6 TIMELESS JOURNEY owns a win & fourth from as many T to D attempts, and said tally came in a 3rd off the bench jamboree -- on today's strip to boot. #7 TO A T closes out yet another affair where our posted selections should do the trick. 


Race  5

1.No Regard

2.Dee's Speedstre

3.Who Me

We don't have the best feel for this deal, so exercise a bit of caution. #9 NO REGARD got smacked around a bit in the lid lifter, and now takes the biggest drop in the game, while switching from an apprentice to a journeyman and getting a slightly better slot. There are some nice dirt works on the docket, so we can envision a scenario where this fella is a completely different animal today. #3 DEE'S SPEEDSTRE loses the hood off a decent showing, and can be sitting on a goodie for today's 2nd start off a near 3 month absence. #7 WHO ME closed out the super @ 12-1 when trying the brown stuff for the 1st time, and can move up off that. 


Race  6


2.Alluring Angel ( GB )

3.Smokie Eyes

#1 SWEETLOU'SGOTACES ( cross entered Saturday, so check the changes ) has improved with each passing start & should crush these with a clean trip. BEATABLE FAVORITE/2ND CHOICE: #9 ALLURING ANGEL (GB) improved by leaps & bounds when procuring the sheepskin at 18-1 on the first of October, but may have outran her pedigree a bit that day, so we'll leave beneath. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the PP's of #6 SMOKIE EYES, as this miss seems to be improving over time, & as we don't know where her ceiling is, we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-2-4-5-12(MTO)


Race  7


2.Affable Monarch

3.Be Better

#3 BARESE owns a 3:2-0-1 boxscore in "true" second off the L/O affairs, and owns a fair amount of back class. Mild choice. #5 AFFABLE MONARCH has partaken in the superfecta in each & every sand start to date, and that includes a solid placing directly in front of a next out winner right here in the penultimate effort. Solid but unspectacular sort should be in the thick of things once again. #1 BE BETTER is two of three going long on the dirt, & one of those came in a second off a hibernation deal, with the other happening after breaking from the inside. Chance to make amends off the last pair.  NOTE: AS OF 9:14 P.M. SATURDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-3-5.


Race  8

1.Star Devine ( Ire )

2.Change of Control

3.Mail Order

#10 STAR DEVINE (IRE) comes in today off a decent showing behind the eventual $88 Breeders' Cup victress Caravel, is toting along a 2nd best of 146 breeze since that last, and found the line first the only time she set her tootsies on the outer. You could get some decent value here due to the competitve nature of this field. #2 CHANGE OF CONTROL won this race last year, & we dig that this competitive mare ( 39:10-9-7 ) brings along her regular pilot for a chance at a repeat. #7 MAIL ORDER closes out our final turf race analysis on this circuit for about a third of a year.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-4-9-5-11


Race  9

1.Willful Desire

2.Bring the Magic

3.Caly Bali

#4 WILLFUL DESIRE will be led over by a gentleman who clicks at a 4-12 rate with maiden claiming sand sprinters ( no juice ) off breaks of 45 days or less, at 10-1 or beneath ( $10, $6, $7 & $12 ). Irad sees fit to ride. #7 BRING THE MAGIC has shown nothing in either start to date, but goes over a fast track for the 2nd time, and sheds a bit of weight & class; may jazz things up in a lackluster grouping. #8 CALY BALI has been freshened up since the disappointing overture and takes the biggest drip in the biz.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( MAKE A WISH !! ), #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.



Aqueduct               ( Current ):  25-123  ( $171.40 ) Beatable Favorites:     1-6  ( 16.7% )  Favorites Win %:   40-123  ( 35.4% )(

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  13-73    ( $97.50 )   Beatable   Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )    Favorites  Win %:  28-73   ( 38.5% )


Aqueduct                   ( Final ):  65-269 ( $556.50 )  Beatable  Favorites     4-20 ( 20% )     Favorites  Win %:  97-269  ( 36.1% )  

Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3498-17700 ($29995.30)  Beatable Favorites : 421-1551( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6652-17710 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3582-18265  ( $30,814.50 )Beatable Favorites : 436-1618( 27% )  Favorite's Win %: 6662-17954 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.7% takeout