SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 1/26
  
  

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We closed out the Aqueduct week with a $1,187 Rolling Pk. 5, 2 Rolling Pk. 4's of $1,068 & $419, 5 Rolling Pk. 3's of $389, $223, $103, $48 & $25, 6 Rolling DD's of $14, $22, $71, $8, $15 & $47, AND (not that many could afford it) a $2,666 Rolling Pk. 6.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #7 Lafitte's Fleet  NOTE: THIS IS NO LONGER A BEATABLE FAVORITE


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 1/26

 

Race  1

1.Mostly Harmless 

2.Afilada

3.Gracefully Wild

#4 MOSTLY HARMLESS is steadily approaching professional maiden territory, but recent money burner goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here, and is backed by a decent DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last five years, Carlito triples his normative 10% batting average with his locally based maiden claiming dirt stock who missed the board less than 50 days ago ( getting Lasix ) at 9-1 or less ( $7, $12, $5, $10, $8 & $9 ). Approaching now or never time. #3 AFILADA overcame a bit of trouble to close out the triple the only time she was in a 3rd off the layoff scenario ( and did such without blinkers & front wraps, which are now a part of the makeup ) and gets an upgrade in the jockey department today. #5 GRACEFULLY WILD has partaken in the super her last two starts on a glib surface, and can land a share.   NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-1-3.

 

Race  2

1.Mauritius

2.Hatch 

3.Buckingham Palace 

#4 MAURITIUS got crushed when facing victors for the first time, but had some issues that afternoon, and now has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt for the first time. Fella owns a win & a placing from as many time going one turn on a fast track, and Atras is a tight three of nine with Aqueduct based mid level sand stock ( ridden by today's pilot ) who missed the money 30-50 days back that are 21-1 or beneath ( $6 x 2 & $9 ). Eligible to rebound in today's 3rd off the L/O attempt. #3 HATCH displayed noticeable improvement the last time he had blinkers added, & jock sticks around despite the recent disappointment. #6 BUCKINGHAM PALACE hasn't been seen since Toga time, but drops in class off the claim from back then, and now has eye cups affixed while having lost his procreating abilities. NOTE: DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Jessica'a Rice 

2.Sicilian Grandma

3.Audit Committee

#4 JESSICA'S RICE drops 48 ounces off the diploma earning effort on the 6th of the month, so obviously, she found the equipment change from that day to her liking. Not sure why the bug from that day gets the boot ( perhaps he committed to another who never made the race ), but despite this frigid apprentice taking his spot, we'll use because of the barn's tidy but tight 2-4 record with runners of this ilk who got their first tally < 38 days in the past ( at 21-1 or beneath ), with payoffs of $19 & $10. #3 SICILIAN GRANDMA adds juice for today's second start off the pine, and meet's leading rider gets the assignment. #7 AUDIT COMMITTEE obviously found the respite, front bandages, drop or wonder drug to her liking, as she went all the way in snagging the sheepskin. Bounce always possible, but against this group -- we'll chunk in.  NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-2-6.

 

Race  4

1.Majestic Tiger

2.Enforcer

3.One More Score

#4 MAJESTIC TIGER has been a decently clear runner up in near identical spots over his last pair, and gets some improvement in the saddle from the last. Mild choice. #3 ENFORCER went coast to coast like butter and toast vs. slightly weaker at Philadelphia Park on January 10th, and consistent sort ( 14:2-5-1-3 on a track labeled FST ) should be smack dab in the middle of things once again. #1 ONE MORE SCORE closed out the tri the only time he was in a second off the layoff spot, and jumped up in the Beyer dept. in a big way that day ( which also came when beginning from the pine ). NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO THETRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-6-7.

 

Race  5

1.Dr. Kraft

2.Zealous Legacy 

3.Bingood to Knowya

#5 DR. KRAFT is an "omnifig" ( as rare as the ivory billed woodpecker ), in such that all of his figures are superior to anything that anyone else in the race has put up ( or we feel, is capable of putting up ), and should crush these. #4 ZEALOUS LEGACY has been working quite well for today's overture, and of the six upstairs members of the family tree, five of them scored in their first or second starts. Note J/T combo clicking at a 4 for 11 rate with dirt dashers ( 0-45 days ), with a sub category of 3:2-0-1 w/firsters ( $9, $7, $8 & $5 ), with both of those tallies coming sans the "Big L". #2 BINGOOD TO KNOWYA has fared decently in both sand starts, and looms a 1-2-3 playah.  NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6

1.Jemography

2.Ragtime Blues

3.Lafitte's Fleet

#4 JEMOGRAPHY has been alternating losses & wins over his last quartet, so today should be a tally, right ? If only the game were that simple. Despite just finishing mid pack in his first start off the claim, gelding is kept above the purchase price, and why not, as he's excelled at today's distance of ground, as the 15:5-5-2 mark belies. No worse than 2nd, for all you place punters out there. #3 RAGTIME BLUES appears to have the best shot of upsetting the above, based on having been kept in prison since the claim/decent showing, and coming right back at that same level. You have to dig the 6 for 12 mark @ the dx., as well. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #7 LAFITTE'S FLEET has been in the super over he recent nonet, and whilemaking sense, is a few adjusted pints below our secondary selection.  NOTE: AS OF 10:45, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-6-1.

 

Race  7

1.Timeless Journey

2.Mommasgottarun

3.Far Away Love ( Arg )

#4 TIMELESS JOURNEY ( 4:2-1-0-1 on the main ) sheds three lb.'s off a nice placing on New Year's Eve Eve, and as this one has shown to be better going two turns then one on the gramma, we'd like to believe that she can do the same in making her initial dirt route try. Oh yeah, from the smallest of surveys, Handal is two fer three with sand stayers at this level who were 1-2-3 less than 51 days in the past ( below the 7-1 watermark ), with mutuels of $7 & $12. #3 MOMMASGOTTARUN was awarded first place money after showing a nice "Z" pattern a fortnight back, as she lost five lengths from the quarter to the half that day, before gaining it all back ( plus a little bit more ) from that point to the line. Filly digs the seagulls & should be coming late. #2 FAR AWAY LOVE ( ARG ) was eased in the goo when last facing the starter, and as Mott doesn't run any sore animals, we'll give this miss a shot to improve in today's 3rd start off the break. 

 

Race  8

1.Timbuktu

2.Mason Mania

3.Alite

#4 TIMBUKTU ( who's missed the superfecta but once ) was a fair 3rd in a strung out field last time out, and gets blinkers slapped on for the first time off that effort. From a trainer stat perspective, barn has won with half of their dozen male allowance sand sprinters, who hit the board 34-50 days in the rear, that are 12-1 or less ( $7, $5, $8, $11, $3 & $21 ). Looking good. #3 MASON MANIA owns a win & a third place finish the only times he went from two turns to one, and his consistency tells us to incorporate. #8 ALITE has never been within seven pounds as light as he is today, and may jazz things up a touch. NOTE: AS OF 10:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

  

Aqueduct            ( Current ):   24-113    ( $199.20 ) Beatable  Favorites:       1-4 ( 25% )  Favorites Win %:    43-113  ( 38.1% )( As of Thursday morning )

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All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3564-17968 ($30,467.70)  Beatable Favorites : 425-1575( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6773-18041( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3648-18596  ( $31,280.20 )Beatable Favorites : 440-1641( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 6783-18285 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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