SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Analysis - 1/28 - Gulfstream Park - Pegasus Turf & Dirt


A hat trick on the AQU card for us yesterday ($10, $5 & $4), along w/a $5,049 Rolling Pk. 5, a $1,080 Rolling Pk. 4, four Rolling Pk. 3's of $480, $612, $438 & $36, five Rolling DD's of $176, $120, $20, $19 & $17, & not that it's affordable, but a $9,901 Rolling Pk6 !

Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Aqueduct, merely go back one page. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s):None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Graded Stakes - 1/28 - Pegasus Turf & Dirt


Race  12

1.Lady Speightspeare

2.Ivar ( Brz )

3.Decorated Invader 

#6 LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE outran her odds when showing in the BC F&M Turf, and we really don't care that this is a gal against the guys, as the speed figure from that day is right there amongst the upper echelon in this spot, and isn't it groovy that Louie sticks around ?  From a DRF Formulator point of view, Sir Roger has won with bot of his sod stayers off breaks of 68-98 days ( no Lasix ) at 10-1 or less ( $20 & $13 ). Furthermore, this miss found the line first both times she returned off an absence ( $4 & $13 ), and the more we type...  #10 IVAR (BRZ) is one of three when returning off a sabbatical in a turf route ( on firm going ), and seven year old "horse" ( Hang on to those parts, brotha ! ) has only missed the superfecta twice in his 15 race career. #9 DECORATED INVADER is 2:1-1-0 in Hallandale Beach, 2:1-0-1 beneath Junior, and 3:1-1-0 at today's distance of ground. That's a cumulative 7:3-2-1 record in some pertinent categories, with only one placing overlapping, and we'll toss into the mix.  OFF TURF: 6-10-8-1-2


Race  13


2.Art Collector

3.Whit Abarrio

#5 DEFUNDED finished his 2022 in fine fashion, going back to back in a pair of dirt routes ( a Grade One & a Grade Three ), and historically is three fer four in "true" breaks in the action. When it comes to his male dirt stayers off breaks of 57-70 days ( no blinks ), Bob Baffert's Baked Beans is a tight 6:5-0-1, with a $3.87 return on investment, and note that he also won his only trek to GP with Irad aboard ( $9, and non overlapping with the preceding stats ). Recognize that this one was only given two dozen days off from the last start to the next workout, and when you consider that most trainers will have at least one jog & one gallop before a breeze after a "layoff", it's safe to say this one really hasn't missed any time, and has been pointing for this one all along ( note the three bullets -- one a best of 100 ). #6 ART COLLECTOR is 8 for 9 at a mile and a sixteenth to 1 1/8 miles, and what the hell's wrong with that ?  #4 WHITE ABARRIO has won his quartet of tries over this oval, and as we just stated with "Art", what the gosh darn is wrong with that ? 


Aqueduct            ( Current ):   31-129    ( $248 ) Beatable  Favorites:       2-5 ( 40% )  Favorites Win %:    50-129  ( 38.8% )( As of Saturday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3564-17968 ($30,467.70)  Beatable Favorites : 425-1575( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6773-18041( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3648-18596  ( $31,280.20 )Beatable Favorites : 440-1641( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 6783-18285 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout