SaratogaBets Handicapping - Belmont Selections and Analysis - 6/9



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/9


Race  1

1.Newport Bridge

2.Fast Buck Freddy 


#6 NEWPORT BRIDGE showed decent improvement from the bow to the followup, and grey gelding gets a jock improvement off that effort. Starting out the day with a solid DRF Formulator stat, as Linda Rice is 5-11 with locally based maiden special weight male stock on the main, off breaks of 13-57 days getting Lasix. The ROI for that sampling is a fat $.37, and it incorporates those 3 & up at 18-1 or below. #7 FAST BUCK FREDDY is extremely well bred for this sorta deal, draws ideally, has been working admirably, and three of five members of the family tree scored at first asking, with a fourth placing. #5 LEFTEMBEHIND has only done that to less than half of his competitors to date, but is in a 3rd off the layoff spot, and note that the lone dirt starts were as a two year old, so you can feel free to upgrade those numbahs a bit.


Race  2

1.Bold Journey

2.Elusive Edge

3.Camm' Duke

#1 BOLD JOURNEY down the lane. #2 ELUSIVE EDGE basically went all the way in his lone 3rd off the layoff spot ( which came on the gramma ), and after getting some nightmarish journeys in both starts this year. looms a solid in the money candidate if able to procure a tidy sojourn. #4 CAMM' DUKE saw the boogeyman in his lone turf try, but seems to have left all greenness issues behind him, and Jose is enticed to take the assignment, despite the paucity grass outings.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-3-6-4-2


Race  3




This troika and no more for all our rolling action.  #6 METEORITE immolated some baccala when showing in the curtain raising back in April, but is bred to do better, and gets a trainer AND jockey upgrade from that day. Should be no worse than 3rd for all y'all who like to grind out a show profit. #2 REFUAH showed zilch with no palpable excuse last time out, and he's beginning to give the impression of being that kind of a maiden. He'll have to beat us up top, but seems like a quintessentially solid "unders" candidate. #7 BATTLEOFLEXINGTON may "appear" to have some ugly running lines, but the only thing you should be concerned with, is the fact that his only dash over a glib surface yielded an adjusted figaro of 66.6, which came off the bench, and without the wonder drug -- which is now a part of the makeup. 


Race  4


2.In Italian ( GB )

3.Speak of the Devil ( Fr )

#3 SPENDARELLA has ( from a #'s perspective ) gotten better and better since starting things out last February, and has done such at five different venues, two different countries, at three different distances, on a straightaway or making a left, and over firm or good ground. Most visually impressive win came in her lone "true" second off the bench deal, and as the late, great Billy Mays said: "But wait -- there's more !!"  Over the last 260 months, trainer is 4:3-1-0 with sod stayers at this level who crashed the fiesta < 68 days back ( NOT getting the big "L" ), ridden by T-Gaff. #1 IN ITALIAN (GB) has yet to finish off the board, and who are we to rock that boat. #5 SPEAK OF THE DEVIL ( a great line from the Barney Miller "Hash" episode, uttered by Harris ) can complete the Pizza/Crumpets/Escargot triple, based on the 33-1 head loss the last time she was in a "true" 3rd off the bench jammie.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-3-1


Race  5

1.Long Term



If you exclude his pre & post layoff line outings ( which we are apt to do at times ) #3 LONG TERM has amassed a steady 6:1-4-1 mark, and was recently sandwiched by two runners who ran 1st & 3rd in their next heats. Mild choice with Tyler getting the call. #6 MAKAR is extremely light from a Beyer point of view, but catches a fast track for just the second time, and despite being out of jail, is aggressively spotted for the first startt w/ new connections. #4 FROMANOTHAMUTHA has hit the board in five straight while also owning three placings from as many start in this zip code. Logocal 1-2-3 playah.  NOTE: AS OF 11:45 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  6


2.Dot's Dollar


Not feeling the heat from this heat, so feel free to toss in a load of laundry.  #2 ROTKNEE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) owns the sort of "declining" mark that we love to see ( 10:6-2-0 ) as it shows that he has a beak for the finish line, and has also done fine work both at this trip & over this strip. Rail shouldn't be much of an issue, as this fella won both times he broke from the two hole on a track labeled FST. #9 DOT'S DOLLAR ( also spotted on Thursday ) owns a win & a third in both "3rd off the pine" engagements, and aside from having a tally the only time he set his tootsies on this oval, has a sweet 5:3-1-1 record at today's distance of ground. #8 AMUNDSON has won 5 of 7 when made available for purchase, and what the hell's wrong with that ?  NOTE: AS OF 11:49 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  7


2.Be the Boss


Another deal where we ain't diggin' the vibe.  #2 CONMAN was an honest enough runner up the only time he cut back from two turns to one, and J/T combo have done quite well together over recent years. Mild choice, but we reserve the right to amend our selections here once the odds are posted, if something appears more enticing parimutually. #5 BE THE BOSS lost by less than four lengths in both turf dashes, and went all the way the only time he was in a second off the shelf placement ( which came on the poly ), and this one is quite playable. #8 KREESA has been a part of the super in all three starts over the blades, and can land a share.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-3-5-7-15(MTO)


Race  8

1.Didia ( Arg )


3.Viginia Joy ( Ger )

#3 DIDIA (ARG) is an amazing EIGHT FOR EIGHT in turf routes thus far ( at five different venues, and often at higher weights & without the use of Lasix ), and though she still may be overlooked in this spot -- given some substantially bigger names signed on -- we have no qualms whatsoever in using. #5 MARKETSEGMENTATION has started out her career on a 6:4-1-1 note, and has shown the ability to race while close up, or come from the back of the pack. Would be no surprise. #6 VIGINIA JOY (GER) has been a part of the super in all three "third off the L/O" spots, and fell short by only a neck when placing directly in front of a next out victress in her lone pairing w/ Franco.  OFF TURF: 1-5-3-4-2


Race  9

1.Frosty O'Toole

2.Pretty Mischievous

3.Munnys Gold 

#3 FROSTY O'TOOLE has been shelved for a couple of months since bringing up the rear with the gear in the Gazelle, but tries 1X for today's comebacker, and The Toddster is three fer five with BEL based graded sand equines ( no wonder drug ) off L/O's of 51-73 days ( $3, $13 & $39 ). Expecting a rebound. #6 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS has done very little wrong since breaking her maiden right outta the box last September, and we like how she was able to settle just a touch moire when having eye cups added in the Oaks, and see no reason this miss shouldn't be included in all your rolling action. #5 MUNNYS GOLD had her three race win streak snapped when being tossed into some deep waters a month ago, but by no means disgraced herself that day in finishing up the exacta. Logical once again. 


Race  10

1.Strong Tide

2.Amazing Grace ( Ger ) 

3.Tide of the Sea

Two mile turf marathon on tap, and we're here for it !  #5 STRONG TIDE has been a bit off form over his last quintet, but six year old "horse" ( You stay 'Strong' in protecting your procreating abilities, big guy ! ) outran his 14-1 offering when completing the triple in this race last annum ( his only partnership with today's helmsman ), and is a sweet 4:2-0-0-2 when in a 3rd off the break placement. Ain't really facing much today. #7 AMAZING GRACE (GER) bounced after winning in her North American bow ( a win ), but is 2:1-1-0 off of this sort of layoff situation, and Rosario ( the pilot from said score ) returns. #4 TIDE OF THE SEA nearly shocked the world when opening up a big lead in the Fort Marcy, and the two returnees from that day went 2:1-0-0-1 when next dressed for the dance ( with an avg. BSF improvement of 8.5 pts. per. ).  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-2-5


Race  11

1.Amy C

2.Goin' Good

3.Bubble Rock 

#6 AMY C shoots for the interrupted hat trick in today's finale, and as she's 5:4-0-0-1 off a hibernation, right from the get go, it's quite doable. From an itty bitty survey, shedrow is 3:2-0-1 with graded turfers going short ( $35 & $20 ) off absences of more than 67 days, and there's a sub cat of 1-1 when Flavah Flav is on board. #8 GOIN' GOOD is a very steady gal who's been I.T.M. in her troika of heats when breaking from the outside two posts. We'll keep her, and her uncoupled barnmate, #7 BUBBLE ROCK  ( a tally in her sole 3rd off the sabbatical start ) in the unders.  OFF TURF: 3-2-5-6-8


Belmont:            38-188 ( $273 )    Beatable  Favorites:  7-23 ( 30.4% ) Favorites Win %: 74-188 ( 39.4% )   ( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes:  9-31    ( $75.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                  Favorites Win %:  8-28    ( 28.6% )


Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:   58-154  ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ):97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% )  Favorites Win %:  139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3690-18492  ($31,342.90) Beatable Favorites : 435-1602( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6970-18595( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3774-19120 ( $32,155.50 )Beatable Favorites : 450-1668( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 6980-18809( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout