SaratogaBets Handicapping - Belmont Selections and Analysis - 6/11



Nice day for his here that day with SIX winners from 15 races -- and a beatable favorite, to boot.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/11


Race  1

1.Wings Like Eagles

2.Party On Girl ( Ire )


#1 WINGS LIKE EAGLES may appear to be be a bit uninspiring over the last pair, but those were going one turn, and if you felt inclined to prorate that that to her two turn figaros, what you have is a numbah that puts her in the upper echelon here. Gets off the rail a bit, and it's encouraging to see Jose stick around. #6 PARTY ON GIRL (IRE) returned off a 15+ month hibernation to lose by less than a length in this race on the 7th of May, and can obviously improve off that effort. #2 CADENCIA has won her last pair when skipping over the blades, and lost by only a half in her lone "3rd off the bench" deal.  OFF TURF 7-8(MTO)-6-2-3


Race  2

1.Living Magic

2.Closing Act

3.Donate Life

#5 LIVING MAGIC scored right outta the box in Philadelphia Park on May Day, and the MONSTROUS 460 Tomlinson figure for today's distance of ground says to us that the result the day was likely not an aberration. January foal has a maturity edge over just about the entire allotment, and four returnees from that deal went a respectable 4:1-1-1 in their subsequent events, improving by an avg. of 7.5 pts. per in the Beyer department. #6 CLOSING ACT is another well bred gal who got her Polaroid ( ask your parents what that is, kiddies ) taken in the bow, and draws the outside while picking up Irad. #3 DONATE LIFE put forth a troubled but gamely showing in the Lexington lid lifter ( say that three times fast ), and can fare much better with a tidier sojourn. 


Race  3

1.Parnac ( Fr )

2.Be Up

3.Strikingly Spun

#2 PARNAC (FR) lost by less than a length in her lone "second off the break" jammie, is one of three over firm going, and gets one of the best riders in the country along with a re-administering of Lasix. Meeeeeeeek pick in yet another toughie. #3 BE UP has won two of her last three, and the runner up from the most recent returned victorious when next in action, improving in the speed figure dept. by about 8.1%. Gal figures, but has been known to toss in the occasional clunker at some weird times. #4 STRIKINGLY SPUN has taken to the lawn like a Toro lawnmower, losing by only a length and a half at 18-1 when first going over the stuff, then following that up with a Louisville tally a month later. Sensible, but is a bit beholden to some decent splits early on.  OFF TURF: 6-4-2-3-7


Race  4

1.Daddy Knows


3.Mason Mania 

#4 DADDY KNOWS all the way. #3 SUNDAESWITHSANDY has been claim protected in both starts after the purchase, and we like that with this one, it's wins -- or nothing else. Big shot if the top one falters. #2 MASON MANIA is an extremely consistent sort who is two for two at today's distance of ground, and should be in the thick of things late in the game. 


Race  5

1.Chocolate Gelato

2.L Street Lady

3.Aunt Becca

#4 CHOCOLATE GELATO got destroyed in the Breeders' Cup, and has been given ample time to sort things out since, for a barn who knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers. #3 L STREET LADY overcame a tardy onset to the return to outrun her odds in a big way, when showing just south of 50-1. Gal put forth a solid effort the only time she was last to load, and can land a share vs. these. #2 AUNT BECCA rounds out the top three.


Race  6

1.From Hello

2.Always Laughing

3.Except Temptation

#3 FROM HELLO has done little to dissuade anyone from dropping a few shekels on her, as she's yet to miss an exacta from three starts to date, and goes from an apprentice to a 27% ( for this meet ) journeyman today. Can't fault those taking a favorable view. ( Is that cliche' enough ? )  #5 ALWAYS LAUGHING improved from her first turf start to the next, and shoots the hat trick today in a race with few first draft eliminations. #6 EXCEPT TEMPTATION is a nibbler who makes her first "3rd start off the layoff", and should be in the thick of things. OFF TURF: 2-5-3-7-6


Race  7

1.Amidst Waves


3.Dr. Ray D

We will give a slight nod to #9 AMIDST WAVES got smacked around at the onset when beginning her working life down in Hallandale Beach last month, and was taken seven wide in a six horse field that afternoon. ( NURSE !! ). Filly switches over to the green for today's followup, and happens to be nicely bred for the stuff. Sire was a perfect three for three when dashing on the synthetic, and the maternal grandsire was 5:2-3-0 when doing the same. We feel that bodes well for today's turf bow, and there's a huge jock upgrade in store as well. #6 BEADS ( Out of 'Bourbonstreetgirl' -- ya get it ? ) gets her working papers this afternoon, and is a full to Screamin' By, who went 11:3-0-4-1 sprinting on the sod, banking nearly 150K in that regards. #8 DR. RAY D. has been working honestly enough for today's lid lifter, and is a half to a graded stakes placed turf dasher.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-3-6  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch in Race 7, the #5 will be our 3rd selection.


Race  8

1.Dads Good Runner

2.Built to Last


#1 DADS GOOD RUNNER has been just that in 2023, as the 4:1-1-2 boxscore belies, and has fared well in both starts at BEL also. From a Formulator point of view, 6% shotcaller ( who's lost 29 in a row ) has an unblemished 3-3 mark with dirt stock that were claimed < 38 days back off an ITM placing ( 22-1 or below ). The winners in that survey returned $10, $12 & $5, and little known jock got his first local win a couple'a weeks back. Demand some good odds. #6 BUILT TO LAST is backed by a tiny but tight trainer stat, which shows Papa Englehart at two for two with Belmont based at this level ( 17-1 or undah ), with mutuels of $3 & $22. #4 TURNSANDCONDITIONS rounds out the top three. ( Which is another way of saying "It's 2:17 in the morning, and like Jackson Browne, we are running on empty." )


Race  9

1.Gold Sweep

2.Ship Cadet 


#6 GOLD SWEEP displayed a decent "Z" pattern when losing 1 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half before gaining nearly four lengths from that point to the line, and the 403 Tommy tells us there is some room for an upwards trajectory here. We love landing on maidens in these baby stakes deals, and could do a lot worse than this one. #5 SHIP CADET makes an intriguing switch of surfaces after procuring the sheepskin on the Widener first time out, but we feel is  MUCH better bred for the brown than the green, and makes ALL kinda sense here. #4 JUMPINGJAGGERFLASH was visually impressive when getting the job done in his debut, and despite appearing "cheap" off of that effort, but sometimes these youngsters can improve in leaps and bounds, and and we'll chunk in.


Race  10

1.Venencia ( Fr )

2.Revalita ( Fr )


#3 VENENCIA (FR) bested a dozen others when beginning her working life in Chantilly ( a race where the runner up picked up the lion's share next time out ), and after being given some time off, overcame a slow start to grab 10% of the pot down in Lexington in her N.A. debut. Gal is backed by a decent trainer stat which has Brown at 4 of 6 with Elmont based turfers going long ( no wonder drug ) at this level off L/O's of 9-67 days  ridden by Irad. The payoffs for that study were $8, $13, $3 & $9, and should save all the ground. #2 REVALITA (FR) ( uncoupled barnmate w/ the above ) has done fairly well since arriving in this great country, and makes her 3rd start off the bench for an outfit that's a tidy 2 for 4 with runners fitting all this exact criteria ( 16-1 or underneath ) who were ITM < 68 days back ( $3 & $13 ). #8 SPANSIVE has went coast to coast like butter and toast in both afternoon treks to the frontside, and The Toddster is two fer four with BEL based graded entrants ( who are not getting the big "L" ) going long on the lawn after having won 1-52 days in the past at 9-1 or less ( $3 & $19 ).  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-2-4


Race  11

1.Sir Lance


3.Ripe for Mischief

#10 SIR LANCE returns off a three month sabbatical being made available for purchase for the first time, and has blinkers added while cutting back to a sprint, Meeeeekest of choices in a race with no first draft eliminations. #1 WILLINTORISKITALL showed diddly poo first time out, but slides in to the slot and takes the biggest drop in the game, while retaining the debut pilot. #12 RIP FOR MISCHIEF is another who has the "For Sale" sticker attached to his bum for the first time, and is as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 4-6-7-3-9


Belmont:            47-212 ( $339.10 ) Beatable  Favorites:  7-24 ( 30.4% ) Favorites Win %: 88-212( 42.4% )   ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes:  9-31    ( $75.90 )   Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                    Favorites Win %:  8-28   ( 28.6% )


Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ):97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% )  Favorites Win %:139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3690-18492  ($31,342.90) Beatable Favorites : 435-1602( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6970-18595( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3774-19120 ( $32,155.50 )Beatable Favorites : 450-1668( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 6980-18809( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout