SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 11/24 - Happy Thanksgiving !! ( For those reading this in advance ! )


Just an $8 winner & $56 Ice Cold Exacta for us here on Sunday, but we're still besting the takeout, and ahead of the grain in our Beatable Favorites category, as we're done with turf racing for about the next five months or so.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #8 Mariachi

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 11/24 - Happy Thanksgiving !! ( For those reading this in advance )


Race  1

1.Dorothy's Dreams

2.By the Glass

3.Don't Listen

#5 DOROTHY'S DREAMS has ( for this allotment ) shown a tad of versatility in her three starts to date ( one turn dirt, two turns dirt, two turns turf ), and this January gal is now made available for purchase for the first time while getting back to the setup of her lone ITM finish. Looking good. #2 BY THE GLASS ( Noooooo...not the PARTING Glass. ) put forth a solid effort when beginning her working life 41 days in the rear, and is confidently stepped up by Dutrow ( whose horses have been a bit miraculous of late ), while enlisting the services of a jock who's scored twice for him since his return from a ten year suspension. #4 DON'T LISTEN has hit the board in both starts to date, and who are we to rock that boat ? 


Race  2

1.Blue Plate Special


3.Quick Hammer

#2 BLUE PLATE SPECIAL takes the obligatory hike in class after being purchased for a quarter by Toscano on the 2nd of the month, and although he flopped that day, did pretty decently in both starts just prior, so we'll give him a timid nod in a jammie with no first draft tosses. #3 FENWICK fared okay the only time he had tha blinks removed, and former Preakness entrant is now up for grabs for the first time. We like to be forgiving of pre & post L/O running lines, but it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. #7 QUICK HAMMER has lots of early zip and has never seen these depths. Note that the lone tally came from an outside-ish slot.  NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3

1.Bold Journey 



Sighhhhhhhhh.....we used to LOVE the Fall Highweight Handicap, and wish someone would return it's former glory. This year's rendition of the "Highweight" has but one horse toting more than 130 pounds. We're too bummed to post the Wikipedia link, but check it out to see how much former winners carried.  Anyway....   #1 BOLD JOURNEY got up in time to best optional foes right here on the 12th of October, ( his 2nd straight start where he displayed improvement ) and on the whole, positively adores going 3/4's, as the 10:4-4-0 mark at such belies. Colt owns a win and a placing from as many starts when breaking from the innermost two slots, is two of four beneath Jose over a glib surface, and digs this locale as well. Would love to see a pace duel up front. #4 DURANTE has won his last quintet on a track labeled FST, digs the trip& strip, owns the ability to send or rate just a bit, and can't fault Missus Calabash fans taking a favorable view. #2 ROTKNEE is 7 of 10 on a fast track, and what the hell's wrong with that ? 


Race  4

1.J D Factor

2.For Your Pleasure


#1 J D FACTOR finished in the back half of the pack when getting his working papers on October 21st, but took the overland route that day & only lost by three lengths that day.  Slides in six slots today, and as he's a bit better bred for a fast tack then a wet one, we'll give him a chance to make amends for a barn that's won with their last four starters ( $8, $12, $13 & $24 ). #6 FOR YOUR PLEASURE was a mite green at the onset when debuting in the same race as the above, but overcame it to close out the exacta in a rallying fashion. 354 Tommy tells us that the effort was not an aberration, and this is a must include. #3 OTELLO is a well bet firster, and has apparently  been a good actor at the gate according to the workout times. 


Race  5

1.Mariah's Fortune

2.Its Cold in Dehere

3.Crowding Out

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 MARIAH'S FORTUNE was a bit flat against tougher a half'a month back, but scored in a near identical spot just before that ( one of her two wins in Ozone Park from five starts ), and is reunited with the pilot from that day. #6 ITS COLD IN DEHERE finds herself at an all time low, and gets in light with a decent bug assigned. Could perk up a bit. #4 CROWDING OUT went coast to coast like butter and toast versus beaten foes three dozen days back -- bringing her dirt mark to 2:1-1-0 -- and should be no worse than 3rd for those looking to grind out a show profit. 


Race  6

1.Centre Court Champ

2.Rachel's Rock

3.Stonewall Star

#3 CENTRE COURT CHAMP is an extremely consistent sort ( 12 exacta finishes from 18 heats on a fast track ), and that includes a win & a placing from as many starts when made available for purchase, two runner up finishes from as many 2nd off the L/O deals, and this miss has a nice "declining" 8:4-2-0 mark at the trip as well. Slight edge in a deal with no first draft eliminations. #4 RACHEL'S ROCK is another steady sort who has gone up, up, up the Beyer ladder over her last quartet, and best work has come at today's distance of ground. #2 STONEWALL STAR hasn't been in action since the spring, but owns a bunch of back class, gets Lasix for the first time, and it sure is hard to argue with that 3 for 3 mark beneath the seagulls. 


Race  7

1.Burton Way

2.Screaming Uncle


#3 BURTON WAY has put forth a couple of so so efforts since arriving from the left coast, and now takes the biggest drop in the game. According to the DRF Formulator platform, Jacobsen has won with both starters when doing such off breaks of less than 26 days ( $5 & $6 ). As barn stands to lose money with a win & another claim, it would behoove you to take a gander pre race. #5 SCREAMING UNCLE has yet to finish out of the superfecta, and has blinkers added for today's second start off the snag. #9 VENGE is another one taking the plunge this afternoon, and was a decently clear runner up the only time he was in a second off the bench scenario.  NOTE: AS OF 10:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8


2.Who Hoo That's Me

3.Dark Vector

#2B TETSU enters today off a sharp runner up finish vs. starter foes 12 days in the rear, as this chestnut chap has steadily improved in three starts since being bought for 16K back in August, and barn is a sweet 5 of 9 with locally based allowance dirt stock who crashed the fiesta less than 24 days back ( 8-1 or less ). The winners for that sampling paid $7 x 2, $12 & $6 x 2, and seven year old should sit a nice trip. #7 WHO HOO THAT'S ME has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but has closed out the exacta in both tries off the bench, and digs the trip & strip. #3 DARK VECTOR rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 10:52, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES WILL BE 1A & 2 RESPECTIVELY, WITH #8 BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Race  9

1.Love Thyself

2.Alotta Jays

3.Run for Your Honey

#8 LOVE THYSELF has only beaten a total of three critters since dumping the rider in the Saratoga debut back in July, but slides down the ladder for today's 2nd try without the eye cups, and Hennig more than triples his normative 11% batting average with his maiden claimers NOT getting the wonder drug, off breaks of 20-33 days ( 41-1 or undah ). He;s 2 of 6 w/ that sort ( $38 & $13 ), and if we're going to land on a runner ridden by Katie ( who's been slumping ), at least we'll be rewarded with a solid offering. #2 ALOTTA JAYS catches a fast track for the first time and makes her 2nd start off the hiatus. Could perk up a bit. #4 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY has partaken in the super over her last quintet, and goes from a maiden special weight to a maiden claimer while getting appreciable improvement in the irons. 


Aqueduct           ( Current ): 25-111  ( $198.70 ) Beatable  Favorites: 1-9 ( 11.1% )  Favorites Win %:  34-120   ( 30.6% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes: ( Current ):  9-31     ( $75.90 )   Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                Favorites Win %:  8-28      ( 28.6% )


Aqueduct          ( Final ):  58-247  ( $387.90 ) Beatable Favorites:   2-13    ( 15.4% ) Favorites Win %:   101-247  ( 40.9% )   

Saratoga:      ( Final ):87-409 ( $821 ) Beatable Favorites: 4-21 (19.1%)Favorites Win %:147-409 ( 35.9% )   

Belmont:             ( Final ): 87-368  ( $632.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  8-32     ( 25% )  Favorites Win %: 140-368 ( 38% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3     ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ): 97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24   ( 37.5% ) Favorites Win %: 139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3922-19516  ($33,184.70) Beatable Favorites : 449-1668( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7358-19619( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 4007-20084 ( $34,003.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7521-20206( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout