SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/4


 Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis for the Spinster at Keeneland, merely go back one page. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/4


Race  1

1.Bella Domenica


3.Munnings Muse

#4 BELLA DOMENICA seems to be a bit of an overlay here at 12-1, as she's been vastly improved in her last troika, partaking in the superfecta in each, and gal may appreciate getting off the rail a bit today. #3 CALIDAD had a nightmarish experience when going over the blades for the first time, and is switched back to what will most likely be her preferred surface down the road. Note that her best effort came in a second off the layoff try, so we wouldn't be shocked to see a sharp try. #2 MUNNINGS MUSE popped and stopped in the comebacker, and as Gullo has packed it in, 20% DePaz takes over; obvious factor if able to get back to the debut way back when.   NOTE: AS OF 12:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2



3.Noble Mischief

#5 BIELEFELD has steadily improved over his four turf outings, so right off the bat, who know where his ceiling is in that regards. Deserving favorite, and chances are enhanced with any pace to cut into. #6 YOUSAIDHELLO spit the bit rather readily after a half in the most recent, but rates a puncher's chance if able to get back to the penultimate effort when losing by only three at 16-1. #3 NOBLE MISCHIEF has posted three decent figaros in his four calls to post, but we'll keep beneath because of the frigid connections.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-4-1


Race  3


2.Indy Union

3.Graceful Princess

#1 JENNEMILY is a bit of an in and outer, and although she breaks from the pine for the first time, has hit the board in all four outings when breaking from the two hole, and closed out the exacta in her lone "3rd off the L/O" go round. Slim margin in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 INDY UNION has a nice 5:2-1-0-2 record when going from two turns to one, owns a two fer three mark right here, and slumping Alvarado got off the schneid with a grand salami on Friday. #4 GRACEFUL PRINCESS is 3:1-1-0 off the shelf and is an obvious factor. 


Race  4 



3.Siding Spring

#7 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI is 1 for 2 when going brown to green, and totes his lightest impost to date for today's second off the claim deal. Bug is showing some improvement of late, and this one may surprise at a price. #2 ANOTHER has some decent early hoof, and despite merely beating home the chase ambulance in the last duet, we're assuaged by the local 4:2-0-2 ledger on the Widener. #10 SIDING SPRING went coast to coast like butter and toast in an off the turf event at the end of August, and as this one is historically better on turf than dirt, we wouldn't be surprised to see a an even niftier performance.  OFF TURF: 5-3-7-1-8


Race  5

1.Macho Jack

2.Advance Notice

3.Lost in Rome

#6 MACHO JACK shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, given the crisp figs posted in the last two outings, as well as the fact that the runner up for the most recent got his photo taken next time out. We'll bite at 12-1 with a hot Javy taking the reins. #9 ADVANCE NOTICE ( scratched two days ago for this ) was visually impressive when besting cheapies at first asking, and Maker may have gotten away with one, as this $350,000 auction purchase is now protected against the claim. #4 LOST IN ROME ( spotted in the 8th on Fri. ) took the obligatory hike in class after being snagged for 30 large back in mid March, and responded with a wire to wire job at the mdclm. 75K level 2 1/2 weeks later. Facing no world beaters here, and we'll nibble at 15-1. 


Race  6 


2.Crescent Lady

3.Silky Blue

#8 KILKEA has hung up her two best figaros to date since transitioning to the sod, and given the excellent turf pedigree, could do even better in today's 2nd off the break try. #7 CRESCENT LADY came along decently to best half of her competitors when hitting the blades for the first time, and should appreciate the added ground for today's 3rd off the break foray. #4 SILKY BLUE has yet to finish out of the superfecta and is reunited w/the pilot from the lone tally. OFF TURF: 6-3-4-7-1


Race  7

1.Mashnee Girl 

2.Director's Cut


#3 MASHNEE GIRL is extremely light from a BSF perspective, but sometimes these babies can improve by leaps & bounds, and you should know that this one is a half to a 1-5 turf stayer ( 20K ), was dropped by a gal who was 1 for 6 dancing to this music ( 48 large ), and the maternal granddam was a whopping 6 fer 11 on the gramma. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow next #5 DIRECTOR'S CUT, as this one is seemingly getting better & better, and we see no reason for any decline in this spot. #4 CALDEE had it all her own way when Castellano was able to walk the dog up in the Adirondacks on 8/23, and we're not sure if she'll get away with those splits this afternoon, but we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 

1.Nonna Madeline


3.Point of Honor

#3 NONNA MADELINE immolated some baccala when in the rear with the gear at the end of August, but as this gal was a mite flat in her lone other "3rd off the break" attempt, we'll be a bit forgiving, given the solid form just prior to that. Four year old cuts back to one turn here, and may offer some fair value for a change. #5 HOROLOGIST gets a little bit of class relief today, as there ain't no Monomoy Girl's signed on, and deserves your respect. #4 POINT OF HONOR has yet to miss a super, and that includes a nose defeat in her lone try at Big Sandy, as well as two other exacta finishes off a respite.   NOTE:AS OF 12:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9 

1.Holiday Stone


3.Chewing Gum 

#2 HOLIDAY STONE has found the line first in three of his last five, and is but a length shy of a two for two mark on this course. Six year old "horse" ( hang on to 'em, buddy ! ) just may sit a nice trip from the pocket. #3 BACKTOHISROOTS has shown steady improvement since disappointing in the Oldsmar finale, topping it off with a lifetime best number at Saratoga 37 days in the rear. While a bounce is always possible, we'd be silly to leave out. #1 CHEWING GUM won by a pole in his only two turn to one turn attempt, but as he'll likely have to navigate his way through a boatload of traffic here, we'll keep in the unders.  OFF TURF: 10-8-6-4-2


Race  10

1.Ruse ( AE )

2.Dustgetsinyoureyes ( AE )

3.Sandor Clegane

#14 RUSE is on the outside looking in, but has a couple of decent morning moves on the ledger & went for four times the stud fee at auction. Slimmest of margins. #16 DUSTGETSINYOUREYES (AE) is another who needs a lot of luck in order to make it into the body of the race, but has some decent pedigree and gets Manny Man in the irons. #9 SANDOR CLEGANE faded at the halfway point first time out, but loses the eye cups here, and may appreciate today's surface switch.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:37, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 8 & 6 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Belmont          ( Current ):     9-99       ( $101.00 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-7  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %      29-99    ( 29.2% )

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout