SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/12 - Happy Columbus Day !
  
  

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Couple of average winners yesterday as our "Beatable Favorite" streak was snapped at an all time high of 21. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #1 Sam & Sy NOTE: AS OF 11:51, THERE IS NO BEATABLE FAVORITE IN RACE 3   NOTE: AS OF 11:47, IN RACE 1, #9 IS A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/12 - Happy Columbus Day !

 

Race  1

1.U Should Be Dancing 

2.Saluki 

3.Ten Plagues 

#1 U SHOULD BE DANCING was a bit flat in the most recent, but we have a fondness for lightly raced fading/failing dirt sprinters stretching out on the sod for the first time, and runner gets in light while owning some nice grass pedigree on the topside. Bug just took a hard spill as of this writing on Saturday, so check for any changes. #8 SALUKI hasn't shown much in the mornings for today's overture, but has the same sire as our top selection, and is another one with an apprentice assigned. #11 TEN PLAGUES was in the rear with the gear first time out, but Rick's not known for having 'em cranked up early, and get from A.P. have been faring well on the sod so far.  OFF TURF: 8-5-2-1-7  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-5-1, WITH #9 BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  2

1.Gringotts

2.Wicked Title

3.Wiggle and Jiggle

#2 GRINGOTTS was shipped up to Finger Lakes to try and stay claim protected after the maiden breaker, but that didn't go to well, and is now properly spotted against a weak allotment. Reunited with Rosario today and is a threat if able to get back to that penultimate effort. #8 WICKED TITLE closed out the superfecta in an even performance in the first start off the claim, and while she may move forward a bit today, we'll leave beneath because of the frigidness of the barn. #7 WIGGLE AND JIGGLE hasn't been in action in quite some time, but won by a pole the last time she had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump, and now totes a feather. 

 

Race  3

1.Skippingandajumpin

2.In the Zone

3.Cape Cod Gem

#3 SKIPPINGANDAJUMPIN crushes. #4 IN THE ZONE went for six times the stud fee at auction, has a decent Tomlinson number for today's trip, and brings a couple of above average workouts along for today's bow. Ain't facing much here. #6 CAPE COD GEM has blinkers added after a disappointing debut, and takes the biggest drop in the game while drawing an outside slot; just may perk up.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 SAM AND SY fills the bill as we like our top choice that much.   NOTE: AS OF 11:51, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-2-4 WITH NO BEATABLE FAVORITE.  NOTE: DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Fun Finder

2.Whistlinginthedark

3.Invaluable

#1 FUN FINDER was a stumblin' and a bumblin in her first start off an elongated absence, and ended up besting just three from a field of ten that day. As this one had never ran on the turf before ( without much breeding for the stuff ) one would think that race was to get some "bottom" in this one, as the same pilot sticks around. From a limited sampling, barn has won with two of six runners going green to brown & 2X to 1X that were OTB last out ( 19-1 or less ) w/mutuels of $9 & $16. #6 WHISTLINGINTHEDARK was a game victress in the maiden breaking effort up in the Adirondacks, and the runner up that day got her photo taken next time out, improving by 25% in the Beyer department. Aside from being eased in one event, #3 INVALUABLE has improved with each passing start, culminating with a diploma earning effort down at the Shore on the 12th of September. Jose sees fit to ride. 

 

Race  5

1.Creative Style

2.Shalako

3.Flowers for Lisa

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #6 CREATIVE STYLE plummets this afternoon after being claimed for 40 large three dozen days back, so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock beforehand. Connections lose money with a win & a claim this afternoon, so you have to figure they'll have this one as ready as possible, to recoup some of their investment. Recognize the 4:1-1-1-1 mark with Cancel in the irons. #5 SHALAKO has only beaten home the chase ambulance in his last duet ( like many of Rudy's runners these days ) but three of his best outings have come with a kid aboard. #3 FLOWERS FOR LISA went all the way versus $20,000 foes 16 days back, and is a deserving favorite in dropping 4K here. 

 

Race  6 

1.Imprsstheprofessor

2.Excited Feeling

3.Ghostghostghost

#5 IMPRSSTHEPROFESSOR has partaken in the superfecta in her troika of starts to date, and although the turf pedigree appears to have a lot to be desired, you should know that the paternal granddam closed out the tri in both of her turf starts ( and they were sprints as well ). Could surprise in today's 2nd off the shelf jammie. #4 EXCITED FEELING fell short by just a touch over three in her sole turf dash, and did such despite encountering a bit of difficulty. Blinks are now affixed for a gal shedding 80 ounces. #8 GHOSTGHOSTGHOST has been beset by two layoff lines after just as many starts, but slides way down the ladder now, and will have the hood strapped on for the first time.  OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-11-1-12-13(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:01, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-8-2.

 

Race  7

1.American Power

2.Mad Munnys

3.Hammerin Aamer 

#7 AMERICAN POWER has a solid 4:2-1-1 record when in partnership with Irad, and as a matter of fact, those were the last four times this one raced without blinkers -- which happens to be the M.O. today. Slim margin in a race with just one first draft elimination. #5 MAD MUNNYS nearly went all the way in a similar spot 36 days in the rear, and switches from Reylu to Luis, which is like first time Lasix on this circuit. #4 HAMMERIN AAMER is confidently hiked up in class despite having been kept in jail since the August 22nd purchase, and gelding who has done very good things in Elmont completed the exacta in his lone two turn to one turn heat on a fast track.   NOTE: AS OF 12:13, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Chowda 

2.Blindwillie McTell

3.Clench

#7 CHOWDA returned off an extended break in the action to secure 12% of the pot in a state bred stakes 200 miles northward at the end of August, and you have to love the bullet breeze on display from last Tuesday. Colt almost always seems to outrun his odds as he's only missed the board but once on a fast track. It's been a "Tale of two horse" with the #3 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL when you compare his first five outings to the next quintet, as after never missing an exacta in the former, he's done just that in every start since. We're not giving up on this gelding just yet, but we're including with a touch of trepidation. #4 CLENCH digs this strip ( 2 fer 2 ) and this trip ( 13:3-2-2 ) and is smartly spotted off the claim/lifetime best effort.  NOTE: AS OF 12:16, DUE TO THE TARCK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-7-2.  NOTE: DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, WE REVERT BACK TO THE 4 & 8 BENEATH OUR TOP CHOICE.

 

Race  9 

1.Beach Front

2.Dr. Devera's Way

3.Larceny 

#7 BEACH FRONT put forth an honest enough showing in a near identical spot on 9/19, and 20% clan clicks at a solid 9:3-1-1-1 rate with locally based mid level dirt animals who crashed the board < 46 days back, with payouts of $4, $5 & $8. Blinkers are now left in the tack room. #4 DR. DEVERA'S WAY has been a part of the superfecta in both tries off the pine and has yet to have seen these depths. Solid runner tries hard. #9 LARCENY tried to steal it on the front end five weeks back, and closes out what may be the last five day week in New York for quite some time.  


Belmont          ( Current ):     20-150     ( $189.80 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-12  ( 8.5% )  Favorites Win %      46-150   ( 31.3% )( As of Monday morning )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-39       ( $66.90 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    14-39   ( 35.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


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