SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/10 - Keeneland - QE II
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's complete Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 10/10 - Keeneland - QE II

 

     Race 9      QE II

1.Sweet Melania

2.Micheline

3.Magic Attitude ( GB )

#2 SWEET MELANIA lost by only a sliver when last in action up at The Spa on August 28th, and judging by the followup breezes, the effort didn't appear to take too much starch out of the collar. Chestnut lady was purchased for 600 large just a stone's throw from teh paddock last year, and eclipses that mark with a win here, and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play which tells us that it's quite possible. Over the last 60 months. T.P. wipes the competition clean with 2nd off the layoff graded turf routers who were ITM last time out & are 7-1 or less, as he's 7 of 15 in that regards with a healthy $3.92 ROI. #7 MICHELINE has essentially improved w/ each passing turf outing, culminating with a game tally in Franklin, and who knows where her ceiling is. #4 MAGIC ATTITUDE (GB) proved that the transatlantic journey was worth the effort with a smart score in Elmont three weeks ago, but as a bounce is always possible with these second off the layoff type, we'll leave beneath.  OFF TURF: 6-4-5-1-9 

 
Belmont          ( Current ):     15-129     ( $149.30 ) Beatable    Favorites    0-10  ( 0% )    Favorites Win %      40-129   ( 31.0% )( As of Saturday morning )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-39       ( $66.90 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    14-39   ( 35.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017