SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/8



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #2 Hayabusa One (Ire)  Race 5 - #3 I Love Jaxson

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/8


Race  1

1.Vermont Billy 

2.Risk Profile

3.Twelth Man

#2 VERMONT BILLY is a $125,000 bred animal who went for nearly four times that amount at auction last May, and has been conducting her morning affairs in a professional manner for today's overture. 15% clam is a whopping five for eight with locally based firsters at this level at 11-1 or less. The winners came back $4, $7, $9, $12 & $23, and there's a sub category of one fer one with Irad in the saddle. #3 RISK PROFILE was sent to the sidelines for 11 months after besting half of his competitors at Lexington first time out, and returned at the Shore when closing out the triple in going long at a slightly lower level. Logical, given the numeros posted to date. #1 TWELTH MAN showed improvement from the first start to the next, but disappeared for quite some time afterwards, and now returns sans testeeklees. Recent work signals readiness. 


Race  2

1.Stash My Money

2.High Tone

3.Sidd Finch

#3 STASH MY MONEY displayed zippo in the most recent, but closed out the exacta in his sole Dirt to ( firm ) turf try, and totes the lightest impost of his career this afternoon. Additionally, this one has placed in two of three 1X to 2X forays, and 8% trainer is backed by a pretty snazzy DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 260 weeks, barn has a nice 4-11 mark with turfers off breaks of a baker's dozen days or less ( 73-1 or undah ) with healthy mutuals of $25, $27, $43 & $69, and a sub category of 2-3 on the Widener. Bombs away !  #1 HIGH TONE has improved with each passing turf start, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. 18% Maker has won with half of his eight maiden claiming turf stayers off breaks of 68-110 days ( 9-1 or less ), w/payouts of $3, $6, $5 & $4. #7 SIDD FINCH rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 2-13(MTO)-3-11-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 11 & 4 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Race  3

1.Taos ( Fr )

2.Hayabusa One ( Fr )


#6 TAOS (FR) has been beset by a bevy of layoff lines, but stakes winner found the line first in his only "second off the L/O" spin, and finds himself available for purchase for the first time. Mild choice in a race with just one first draft elimination. #2 HAYABUSA ONE (FR) is another one who has never been up for grabs until this afternoon, and class of the field should be left in the mix. #3 HIEROGLYPHICS is confidently hiked up in class after besting conditional foes in Saratoga, and should be coming late.  OFF TURF: 5-6-7(MTO)-3-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 HAYABUSA ONE (IRE) will be led over by a trainer who's oh-fer-15 in all pertinent categories.


Race  4 

1.Cover Photo


3.Cotton Candy Cutie

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #8 COVER PHOTO has been bitten by a bout of "seconditis" of late, but finds herself at her lowest level to date, and will be led over by a 23% conditioner who clicks at a 10:4-3-1 rate with Elmont based mid level dirt horses who crashed the fiesta less than a fortnight ago ( $6 x 2, $9 & $14 ). #3 WHYISSHESOLUCKY is another who has never been this low, and Persaud ( who normally wins at just a 6% rate ) is an honest 2 for 11 with runners of this ilk who missed the bread less than two weeks ago. #2 COTTON CANDY CUTIE gets in with a feather and may perk up a bit. 


Race  5

1.Freaky Styley

2.Vintage Hollywood

3.Twisted Tom

#7 FREAKY STYLEY was eased in the comebacker, but we've often made money with such animals, and this colt was a lively runner up in his only start at Big Sandy, and is back at one turn here. Alvarado gets the nod, and he broke out of his funk in a big way with a fine past weekend. #2 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD is a bit of a nibbler by rote, but has been a part of the superfecta in all three starts off the bench ( 3:1-1-0-1 ) and picks up Irad. #5 TWISTED TOM got his photo taken in his one "turf to dirt" deal, and has a nice "declining" overall ledger; take a peek in the paddock, however, as front wraps were added when last in action -- the first time since his first start.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 I LOVE JAXSON  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 



3.This Ill Defend

#5 COMPLIANT bested half the field when finishing two spots behind a next out winner after an elongated absence, and colt -- who always gives a fair account of himself -- leaves the eye cups in the barn this time, and fifth different pilot in as many calls to the post is his best yet in Jose. Shedrow clicks at a crisp 6:4-1-1 rate with BEL turf routers off L/O's of 54-68 days who are beneath the 8-1 watermark ( $13, $4, $6 & $8 ) with a sub category of 1-1 when losing blinks. #6 AMANO has rolled three straight threes, and while that may make you some money at the craps table, it only gets 11% of the pie right here. Irad grabs the reins once again, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a better effort from this uncoupled barnmate with the above. #2 THIS I'LL DEFEND is protected against being snagged today and can grab a piece.  OFF TURF: 1-3(MTO)-5-8-2


Race  7

1.Queen's Mason

2.Il Primo Sole ( GB )


After earning a couple of small checks since the June 26th claim, #1 QUEEN'S MASON is dropped down to a more palatable level today, and gelding outran his turf pedigree when completing the triple at 12-1 in his first start over the stuff 15 months ago, so it's within the realm of possibility that this one may dig the gramma once again. Four year old likes the inside & should sit a perfect trip. #4 IL PRIMO SOLE (GB) hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is one of two off a respite, and there's a bullet on display for today's return to action. #3 TENURE has oodles of speed and can hang on for a slice of lemon merengue pie.  OFF TURF: 3-12-1-4-9 


Race  8 

1.Bears Mafia


3.Inside Info

#11 BEARS MAFIA tries to complete the six pack here, and it's well within reach, given he Beyer speed figures shown over the last quintet. Obviously, this is somewhat of a sterner task at hand, and that 0-5 local mark gives a bit of pause for the cause, but we love the draw ( 3:2-1-0 when last to load, including 2-2 on the sand ) and will ride the hot hand. #8 RIKEN is another who possesses tons of early hoof, and has done fine work at this strip and over this trip. Best path to victory is the above not bringing his "A" game. #3 INSIDE INFO has a 3:2-0-1 mark at Bel., and that's reason enough to chunk in.


Race  9 

1.Festina Plente ( GB ) 

2.A Little Faith 

3.Cost Benefit ( GB ) 

#9 FESTINA PLENTE (GB) makes her North American debut after ringing up a decent resume' in Ireland, and new trainer is a sharp 7:4-2-1 when being handed a horse and spotting them in a turf sprint at 17-1 or lowah ( 68+ days ), with winning prices of $6, $9 & $5 x 2. #3 A LITTLE FAITH ( "Have a little faith, baby...have a little faith." ) has been a part of the superfecta in all her starts but one, and after a bit of trouble last time out, can make amends for today's 3rd off the shelf engagement. Recognize that the lone start on the inner resulted in a tally. #7 COST BENEFIT (GB) floppped up north after the maiden breaker, but dismiss the connex at your own peril.  OFF TURF: 3-4-11-12-5(MTO)


Race  10


2.Tom's Choice

3.Scotty ( AE ) 

#8 PANSTER put forth an honest enough showing in an off the turf event 200 miles northward at the end of August, and you have to dig the sizzling 35 & 2 move right here on Sunday. May foal will only get better with time, and there's some decent pedigree for the green stuff. #3 TOM'S CHOICE smacked into the starting apparatus when switching surfaces last out, and we'll afford him another shot at what will likely be double digit odds. #13 SCOTTY (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to be beamed over to the races today, but should that be the case, will be toting along a nicely hidden workout amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves; Johnny enticed to take the call.  OFF TURF: 4-8-11-14(MTO)-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Belmont          ( Current ):     10-109     ( $117.60 ) Beatable    Favorites    0-7  ( 0% )      Favorites Win %      32-109   ( 29.4% ) 

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-39       ( $66.90 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    14-39   ( 35.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout