SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/9


Profitable three bagger for us here yesterday along with two successful "Beatable Favorites". 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #10 Ancient Times

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/9


Race  1

1.Daria's Angel

2.Bossy Bride

3.Team Win

#2 DARIA'S ANGEL was claimed off a 5+ month absence up at Saratoga back in early August, and it's encouraging to see that the trainer ( partially ) purchased this mare for herself. 9% shedrow clicks at more than a 30% rate ( 6-19 ) with dirt sprinters off breaks of 51-77 days beneath the 16-1 watermark ( $32, $6 x 2, $5, $19 & $22 ), with a sub category of 1-1 with freshly purchased runners. #5 BOSSY BRIDE owns a win & a third from as many starts when available for purchase, and has also done good things at this trip & over this strip. #3 TEAM WIN got banged around at the onset of the September 3rd event, so you can feel free to draw a line through that, and as that was her first try with blinkers, we'll afford her another chance. 


Race  2

1.Pier Forty

2.Wild Cat West

3.Tri Saint Lorenzo

#8 PIER FORTY has been a bit of a sucker horse throughout his career, but we're assuaged by the fact that Noda is a crisp 4 fer 7 with dirt stock who missed the money less half month back ( 11-1 or lower ). The mutuels for that sampling were $11, $10, $6 & $20, and there's a drop in play today. #7 WILD CAT WEST slides down to his lowest level to date for his third trainer in as many trips to the track, and has recently been relieved of any potential procreating duties. Decent work on display from 96 hours ago. #9 TRI SAINT LORENZO goes from an apprentice to a journeyman off the recent showing. 


Race  3


2.Ballerina Showgirl ( GB ) 

3.June Ann ( Ire )

#2 SEVENTEENEIGHTSEVEN ( an aptly named daughter of Constitution ) takes the biggest drop in the game today and cuts back to what appears to be her better distance while getting reunited with Franco. Obvious player if able to revert to either of the first two outings. #4 BALLERINA SHOWGIRL (GB) is another one at an an all time low this afternoon, and has eye cups affixed for today's second off the layoff foray. #1 JUNE ANN (IRE) completes the Brooklyn Bridge/Big Ben/Blarney Stone triple based on a couple of honest efforts off the pine and an upgrade in the trainer department.   OFF TURF: 7-5-9-3-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4 

1.Aunt Naughty


3.Well Kept Secret

Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology for #6 AUNT NAUGHTY here, as there's a nicely hidden gate breeze ( 7th best of 81 ) amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves. 375 Tomlinson figure for the trip is solid enough, and this one is a full to a 1 for 3 dirt dasher ( 60G ) as well as being a half to one who went 3-20 at this trip ( 132 large ). Of course, we love the draw. #5 MALATHAAT went for more than a million clams at Keeneland a year ago, and is extremely well bred for this sort of deal while having a couple'a bullets in the holster for today's bow. Decent trainer stat in play, as Pletcher has a 5 for 13 mark with those fitting ALL of this exact criteria at 9-1 or beneath ( $3 x 3, $4 & $8 ). #4 WELL KEPT SECRET has at least a two month maturity advantage over the rest of the field, and that means something with 2YO's. 


Race  5

1.Sanctuary City

2.Mr. Kringle

3.Quiet Out East

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #5 SANCTUARY CITY has done nice work since being transferred over to the Ferraro outfit, falling just a length shy of a two for two mark. Sole victory came off a respite, and we're expecting another goodie today -- especially if there's some pace to cut into. We got the fever for the flavor of #8 MR. KRINGLE in this spot, as Terranova charge has been a part of the action in all six of his tries over firm ground, and exits a race where five returnees amassed a cumulative 5:1-1-2-1 mark in their next outings ( four heats ), with a negligible 1.4 average point reduction in the speed figure department. #9 QUIET OUT EAST comes in today off a lifetime best turf fig, and is a head short of a 2-2 record on the inner.  OFF TURF: 1-9-10-2-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 ANCIENT TIMES doesn't make our first cut, so why woulkd we take 5/2 ?


Race  6 


2.Durkin's Call

3.Summer Bourbon

#1 VINCERO has been kept in jail for four more days than the required time to make a drop, and Atras ( 0-14 on the stand ) does just that with this win machine ( 29:10-4-4 ). Aforementioned bossman has a 4-9 boxscore with first off the snag dirt dashers who were 1-2-3 18-50 days back & are less than 9-1 today ( $3, $4, $5 & $8 ). Five year old has historically done decent work when first to load, and note that the place horse from the last outing came back to win. #11 DURKIN'S CALL is halved in price and has won two of five when breaking from the outside ( 1-17 otherwise ). #6 SUMMER BOURBON was extremely disappointing when last seen at the races, but owns an excellent record at the dx., and returns at the level claimed. 


Race  7

1.Jo's Bold Cat


3.Point Him Out

#5 JO'S BOLD CAT often leaves himself with a lot to do, but Rubley has a fair 4 for 11 ledger with allowance turf routers who missed the board less than a month ago, and the payouts for that survey came back $7, $25, $15 & $8. Meeeeekest of selections in a tough deal to decipher. #12 STANHOPE has the miracle drug administered for the first time by a trainer who has performed miracles with some of his runners, and he enlists the services of a pilot who has done excellent work astride his equines. #1 POINT HIM OUT has been somewhat sluggish in the last duet, so the hood is left back in the tack room this afternoon in an effort to have him a bit more engaged early on.  OFF TURF: 1-11-7-2-4


Race  8 

1.Dudley Square

2.Heirloom Kitten

3.Mischief Afoot

#1 DUDLEY SQUARE has a win & a showing from as many dirt sprints, and T.P. rolls right along with his Elmont based, second off the L/O allowance dirt horsies who were ITM last out & are 14-1 or beneath today ( $4, $5, $6 & $11 ). Another mild choice in a race w/ only one first draft elimination. #2 HEIRLOOM KITTEN fell short of the hat trick by less than a length in another sharp performance 32 days in the rear, and this one won by a pole in his only 2X to 1X deal, which also happened to be at this locale. #8 MISCHIEF AFOOT rounds out the tri. 


Race  9 

1.Orglandes ( Fr )

2.Cap de Creus

3.Sorrentina Lemon

#4 ORGLANDES came along decently to get 10% of the purse in her first start in the States, as well as her first start off a year+ hibernation. Filly gets some serious improvement in the jockey dept. in this spot, and owns a 3:1-1-1 mark on firm ground.  #5 CAP DE CREUS was all out to best slightly weaker up north on the 26th of August, but as it took her quite some time to get through the N1X ranks, we'll leave beneath at what will likely be a an underlay on the toteboard. #3 SORRENTINA LEMON has been beset by some layoff lines, but there's nothing worse than an exacta finish on this one's resume', and is a mandatory inclusion for all your rolling action.  OFF TURF: 6-3-2-5-4


Race  10

1.That Quality

2.Crack Shot

3.What's to Blame

#7 THAT QUALITY can be forgiven the comebacker/off the turf outing last month, and aside from a hellacious journey in the secondary outing, this one has two nice running lines to his credit. Fifth different helmsman in as many starts is a Hall of Famer in Johnny V., and there's a "For Sale" sticker attached 'Quality's rump for the 1st time. Your gonna see a lot of turf runners making their first start in the claiming ranks this time of year, as not everyone can ship down south, OR feel like paying lay up fees for several months, and #3 CRACK SHOT fills that bill, as he's in for 30 big ones in the day's finale. 'Miah charge has a boatload of speed, and is paired up with the pilot from the maiden breaking effort. #6 WHAT'S TO BLAME failed by only a neck in his only "2nd off the break" start, and found the line first in his lone try going this distance of ground.  OFF TURF: 6-2-7-10-5 NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Belmont          ( Current ):     13-119     ( $139.30 ) Beatable    Favorites    0-9  ( 0% )      Favorites Win %      37-119   ( 31.1% )( As of Friday morning ) 

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-39       ( $66.90 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    14-39   ( 35.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout