SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/10


Just a reminder that for today's writeup of the QE II from Keeneland, merely go back one page.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #10 Counterparty Risk ( Ire )

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/10


Race  1

1.Firenze Freedom


3.Miss Jimmy

#4 FIRENZE FREEDOM was amazingly fanned seven wide in a field with that many last time out, and merely split the field that day while burning some bread at 5-2. Filly makes her third start off the layoff this afternoon, and is displaying a bullet breeze. Timid selection. #1 ELLARELLA went coast to coast like butter and toast at Philadelphia Park a bit over a month ago ( vs. open maiden company ), and deserves your respect once again. #7 MISS JIMMY likes to hit the exacta. Miss Jimmy totes the lightest impost of her career. Doooooooooon't mess with Miss Jimmy !


Race  2

1.Robin Sparkles

2.Summer At the Spa

3.Jen's Battle

#6 ROBIN SPARKLES has gone all the way in both turf starts to date, and given the whopping Beyers generated in each, it's hard for us to envision a scenario where this miss loses. #7 SUMMER AT THE SPA has a decent collection of numeros, and is reacquainted with blinkers this afternoon, which were affixed for the maiden breaker last fall ( and at today's distance as well ), and could be rolling late. #10 JEN'S BATTLE cuts back to one turn here, and picks up Irad, who was aboard for a local showing a touch over a year ago.  OFF TURF: 4-11-13(MTO)-2-5


Race  3

1.Zaccapa ( Fr ) 


3.Pinch of Grace ( GB )

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #4 ZACCAPA (FR) lost by only a neck in the 3rd off the layoff engagement ( posting a solid adjusted # in the process ), and was a lively runner up off an elongated absence in her sole try on the Widener. No worse than third for all you show punters out there. #3 TRANSLATE has closed out the exacta in both starts to date, and has done such while displaying the versatility of being able to send or rate a bit. #2 PINCH OF GRACE (GB) popped and stopped in the Hallandale overture a while back, and obviously something went awry that day, or shortly thereafter, as they don't give to many vacations in this sport. Homebred filly is extremely well bred for this sorta deal and deserves another chance.  OFF TURF: 3-1-4-6-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 COUNTERPARTY RISK (IRE) doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?


Race  4 

1.Jackie's Warrior

2.Midnight Bourbon

3.Run Casper Run

Another heat where we won't see the need to be delving any deeper than this troika. #4 JACKIE'S WARRIOR has won all three starts to date, has done such at increasing distances, increasing class levels, and increasing weights. Colt visits his third different venue from his quartet of outings, and the lone returnee from the most recent got his photograph taken next out, improving the speed fig by 5.2% in the process. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Favorite with a win? #6 MIDNIGHT BOURBON is another getting better and better, and found the line first the only time he went one turn. Acid test today while adding four pounds. #2 RUN CASPER RUN ( by 'Ghostzapper' -- ya get it ? ) is a bit light from a BSF perspective, but as he tries the sand for only the second time, we'll point out that the 393 Tomlinson for the trip is pretty gaudy ( 393 ), and this one could move forward in a friendly way. 


Race  5

1.Joy's Rocket



#4 JOY'S ROCKET is but a length+ shy of a poyfect 3 for 3 ledger, and you have to like how those efforts have come under a triad of different circumstances ( wet track, poly & turf ). Another one for "The As-Man" with a seemingly bright future, and the most recent is a TREMENDOUSLY key race, with ALL four comebackers winning their next calls to the post -- at four different venues, going over three different surfaces...ALL of them stakes !! There's an average Beyer speed figure improvement of 8.5 points for that grouping, and the more we type, the more we like for our play of the day. #3 CILLA closed out the tri directly behind a next out winner in the lone dirt attempt, and gets some improvement in the trainer dept. here. #1 VEQUIST got the diploma in a Grade One event, and that's simply not something you see everyday -- especially by more than a half dozen lengths. Three returnees from that affair have amassed a cumulative 3:2-1-0 boxscore in their subsequent starts, with an avg. figure improvement of 21 points. Watch out, suckahs !


Race  6 

1.Risk Taking


3.Enough Nonsense

Another race where these three should suffice... #8 RISK TAKING is a well bred $240,000 auction purchase who has been conducting his morning affairs in an admirable fashion for today's bow, and draws ideally while picking up Irad. #3 NEWBOMB broke from a disadvantageous slot in a muddy debut up in the Adirondacks, but still fought the good fight that day in finishing 3rd. 403 tommy tells us the result was likely not an aberration, and three from that deal who have come back are 3:1-1-0 since, w/a negligible change in the numeros area. #1 ENOUGH NONSENSE has a few decent works on the ledger, and we'll chunk in at 8-1. 


Race  7

1.Sifting Sands ( GB ) ( AE )


3.Connagh's Quay

#14 SIFTING SANDS (GB) (AE) is on the outside looking in, but has monstrous pedigree for this distance of ground, and deserves a chance to make amends if a couple declare. #4 HARDISON came along decently enough to secure 11% of the pot at first asking, and followed that up with a bullet over the Oklahoma, which usually plays slow this time of year. Logical. #7 CONNAGH'S QUAY ( second half of the uncoupled entry w/the above ) has some nice workouts on display for today's initial foray, and could be any kind.  OFF TURF: 4-6-12-10-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:10, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 

1.La Signare ( Fr )

2.Civil Union

3.Cambier Parc

#4 LA SIGNARE (FR) has a decent overall body of work, and is one of two on the inner, with the lone blemish coming just prior to an elongated absence, so perhaps something went wrong that day. Five year old has a decent shot at even more decent odds. #3 CIVIL UNION shoots for the grand salami here, and it's well within reach, given the way this one has progressed with each passing start -- including a tally in her only try on this course. #1 CAMBIER PARC has yet to miss the superfecta, got the job done the only time she was first to load, and has a win & a showing from as many spins on this course. Two for two mark with Johnny in the saddle duly noted.  OFF TURF: 3-4-2-6-1


Race  9 


2.Name Changer

3.Happy Saver

#4 TACITUS got his Polaroid taken the only time he was in a "second off the layoff" scenario, is 3:1-1-1 going two turns at Big Sandy, and while a deserving chalk, is by no means a cinch. #3 NAME CHANGER has won one of two races in 2nd off the shelf jammies on a fast track, and this check earning fool gets a big time switch in the jockey area for today's featured event; may spice things up in this truncated heat. #1 HAPPY SAVER is perfect so far, and that includes multiple wins going 2X, as well as a tally at BEL. Lightly raced Pletcher charge poses a threat to the top choice. 


Race  10


2.Miss J Mckay


#3 SELFLESSLY was all out to pick up the lion's share of the Lake George, providing Chad Brown with a rare $31 ( what?? ) winner. Gal has been moving well in the A.M.'s since that day, and aforementioned shotcaller possesses a groovy 19:11-3-3-2 ledger with locally based graded turf stayers who got the job done last out & are 14-1 or undah today ( positive return on investment ). #5 MISS J MCKAY has been a part of the triple in every start thus far, and although she is now going long for the first time, bloodlines tell us she should be able to handle the stretchout just fine. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the #4 GIACOSA as this one keeps getting better and better and better. Bay filly procured the sheepskin in her one and only time going over the Widener, and may be coming late.  OFF TURF: 3-4-5-7-1


Race  11

1.Rock N Warrior

2.Mon Cherie

3.Herald Angel

#4 ROCK N WARRIOR starts things out today, and although she hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in the mornings, this one has a bit of green in the family tree and Serpe runner gets in light with a bug who will be very popular this winter. Price play. After working lights out in Maryland for Stidham, #9 MON CHERIE is sent to the Big Apple for the start of her working life, and just mentioned conditioner has a delovely 20:8-4-1-3 record with firsters fitting all this exact criteria ( any track ), with payouts of $9 x 3, $7 x 3, $14 & $10. #2 HERALD ANGEL was a nicely clear runner up the only occasion she went over firm ground, and is an obvious factor if able to get back to that effort.  OFF TURF: 4-13(AE)-5-7-2 


Belmont          ( Current ):     15-129     ( $149.30 ) Beatable    Favorites    0-10  ( 0% )    Favorites Win %      40-129   ( 31.0% )( As of Saturday morning ) 

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-39       ( $66.90 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    14-39   ( 35.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout