SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/3 - Keeneland - Three Grade One's


Just a reminder that for today's complete Belmont selections & analysis, AND our Preakness writeup, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Graded Stakes - 10/3 - Keeneland - Three Grade One's


Race 8 

1.Uni ( GB )

2.Beau Recall ( Ire )

3.Newspaperofrecord ( Ire )

#5 UNI (GB) got the job done in her lone "3rd off the layoff" engagement, is a sensational 7 for 10 at the distance, and is reunited with the pilot from her most recent win. Lot's of things to like for someone who'll be third choice. #1 BEAU RECALL (IRE) looked good in winning a G2 event on Derby Day, and has done fine work at this trip & when loading first. Like the above would be aided by any pace to cut into. Should be no worse than 3rd for all y'all show punters out there. #4 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD (IRE) had no palpable excuse for falling short at 1-2 odds in the comebacker, but as two of her three defeats were after a respite, we'll give her a chance to make amends; grab her by the tail to get the glory.  OFF TURF: 3-5-2-4-1


      Race 9

1.King Fury

2.Dixie's Two Stents


#9 KING FURY won at two turns first time out ( never easy to do ) and did it from the 10 hole ( also not something to sneeze at ). Pedigree tells us the result was likely not a fluke, and don't be surprised to see Corey dart over to the rail as soon as they spring the latches. You're getting the most expensive foal in the field ( a January foal at that ) coming in off a smart debut win at 12-1. We're in ! #6 DIXIE'S TWO STENTS got smacked around something awful in the Del Mar Futurity, but being a Quality Road out of a Dixie Union mare, we'll give her a chance to make amends for today's initial stretchout. #2 UPSTRIKER won by open lengths first time out, and paid 25 clams in doing such. As this one has the highest Beyer in the field, what's wring with chunking in? 


     Race 10 

1.Born Great

2.Spectacular Gem

3.Without Parole ( GB )

#5 BORN GREAT has improved with each passing start ( winning her duet after a break in the action ), and as the Tommy for today's dx. is 9 points better than that of the sprint he won in Franklin, we feel there may be even more room for improvement this afternoon. Expecting Lanerie to take a tuck & hope for a seam late, in a race where a few big named runners have question marks attached to them. #10 SPECTACULAR GEM is a bit of an in and outer, but rates a chance if able to get back to the two starts before the disappointment. #3 WITHOUT PAROLE (GB) is three for ten at the trip, and if you can be forgiving of the Saratoga affair ( which you should, as this one prefers firmer ground, what you have is a runner with two prior adjusted BSF's cracking the century mark -- one of them, just a 3/4 length loss after being taken six wide. Excellent value here.  OFF TURF: 11-3-8-9-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Belmont          ( Current ):     9-89       ( $101.00 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-5  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %      26-89    ( 29.2% )( As of Saturday morning )

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout