SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/11


Profitable three bagger for us here yesterday, along with a cold $27 double, and our 21st consecutive & successful Beatable Favorite. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None  NOTE: AS OF 1:59, IN RACE 8, #5 SPEAKER'S CORNER IS OUR BEATABLE FAVORITE. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/11


Race  1

1.Fortune's Fool

2.Titan's Will


#1 FORTUNE'S FOOL has lost ground in the lane over his last sextet, but posted a decent figaro in the most recent, and is available for purchase for the first time, and rates a slight edge in a wide open opener. #4 TITAN'S WILL had steadily improved over four straight ( winning the lattermost two of them ) before getting trounced in the Damon Runyon back in March. Evidently something went wrong that day or shortly thereafter, as the chestnut chap hasn't been seen or heard from since. Three year old has been working out weekly since the end of August and is an obvious factor if sound. #3 ALLURED was a solid runner up in front of a next out winner in his sole "second off the L/O" dirt try, and has partaken in the exacta in four of five locally. 


Race  2

1.Brew Pub

2.Chrome Dixie

3.Tanners Neck Lane

#7 BREW PUB has improved with each passing start, and is confidently shipped to N.Y. while transitioning back to the sod. Aforementioned shotcaller has a tight 8:4-1-2 ledger with 2nd off the respite turf dashers who crashed the fiesta last time out ( $31, $5, $9 & $7 ). Not a lot of speed here, and a wire job is well within reach. #5 CHROME DIXIE had an extremely troubled trip when finishing in the first half of the field during closing week at the Spa, but deserves another shot as Rosario sticks around. #3 TANNERS NECK LANE has a couple'a decent morning moves on the docket for today's bow and may grab a slice.  OFF TURF: 2-3-5-7-8


Race  3

1.Ms Boombastic

2.Baseline Drive

3.Wicked Happy

#5 MS BOOMBASTIC was anything but "fahntastic" when finishing 8th of 10 last time out, so Mott gives this one the biggest drop in the game today, and happens to be a saucy 18:7-3-0-3 when doing that with his turf routers at 10-1 or less ( < 28 days ). The ROI for that sampling was more than $3.40, and there's a sub category of 3 fer 5 right here. #2 BASELINE DRIVE has posted three decent figures to date, and the blinkers are removed after a somewhat lackluster effort down at The Shore. #1 WICKED HAPPY is a vastly improved animal since transitioning to the sod, and slides into the pine while going from an apprentice to a journeyman in this spot.  OFF TURF: 7-3-2-1-6


Race  4 

1.Prairie Fire

2.Motivated Seller


#2 PRAIRIE FIRE apparently relished the blinker addition 23 days back, as she posted a career best numero vs. slightly weaker competition. Hike in class doesn't bother us too much here, as we're assuaged by the fact that 23% clan just about doubles that rate ( 11:5-2-2-1 ) with Elmont based allowance dirt stock who won 1-45 days back & are 5-1 or undah today ( $8, $11, $6, $10 & $3 ). #3 MOTIVATED SELLER went coast to coast like butter and toast right outta the box down at Hallandale Beach way back when, and entered the HPP ( Horsewitness Protection Program ) shortly afterwards. Majah Playah if fully cranked. #5 FANGIRL is a fragile sort ( laid up after each start ) but owns a win and a third from as many start over a glib surface. 


Race  5

1.Stay Home Mama

2.Khali Magic

3.Adirondack Queen

#9 STAY HOME MAMA showed zilch in the local bow, and is subsequently dropped into the mdclm. ranks by Maker. It's encouraging to see Saez return, and filly draws well. Meek selection. #4 KHALI MAGIC was in the rear with the gear when going over the blades on the 3rd of the month, and switches to the sand for today's secondary engagement. We'll give her another shot in a lackluster grouping. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with #7 ADIRONDACK QUEEN here, as this miss has one crisp 36 flat gate move amidst a bevy of ordinary workouts, as elder statesman Dunham leads this one over to the races. 


Race  6 

1.Yes and Yes

2.La Hara ( Ire )

3.Glad Rock ( Ger )

#7 YES AND YES popped and stopped in the comebacker on 9/20 ( not helped by Dylan Davis losing the whip ), but gelding is one of two in second off the bench deals and has hit the board in both tries on the inner. From an itty bitty sampling, Gleaves is 2 for 5 when stretching out his turf stock who missed the board less than three fortnights ago ( 31-1 or lower ), with mutuels of $9 & $11. #1 LA HARA (IRE) has the best collection of speed figures in the field and is 3rd off the layoff here. #3 GLAD ROCK (GER) completes the "Hot Dog/Corned Beef/Bratwurst" triple based on his undefeated record, which includes a smart score off of a near 2 1/2 year sabbatical.  OFF TURF: 5-6-3-4-2


Race  7

1.Trade Deal

2.After Five

3.Bright Devil ( Ire )

Toughest race of the day.   #10 TRADE DEAL ( cross entered tomorrow at Monmouth, so check the changes ) was all out to secure the diploma by a honker in Franklin, Ky. last month, and we like how this one improved by about 20% without Lasix. Gal apparently doesn't need to bring her track with her, as she's at her 3rd different venue ( with her 3rd different pilot ) , and we wouldn't be surprised to see another sharp effort. #2 AFTER FIVE ( second part of the three headed Ward monster ) finished just behind the above in their lone encounter, and moves in from the nine hole to the two slot while dropping a pound; obvious factor. #7 BRIGHT DEVIL (IRE) totes her lightest impost to date and the lone tally came on a course labeled as "GF", which is as close to "Firm" as most courses have overseas.  OFF TURF: 8-9-4-2-10


Race  8 

1.Greatest Honor

2.Rye Runner

3.Caddo River

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 GREATEST HONOR outran his odds when closing out the triple at 16-1 on Labor Day weekend up in the Adirondacks, and the 386 Tommy for the trip tells us that the result was likely not an aberration. From a tight sampling, Shug is 6:3-1-1 with Belmont based second time dirt starters at this level, off breaks of 22-50 days, w/mutuels of $7, $5 & $8. #8 RYE RUNNER showed a touch of early hoof when starting things out three dozen days in the rear, and 150K animal deserves another chance. #2 CADDO RIVER was a lively runner up when placing just in front of our top selection first out, and makes all kinds of sense.  NOTE: AS OF 1:59, #5 SPEAKER'S CORNER IS OUR BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Race  9 

1.Amalfi Princess



#4 AMALFI PRINCESS got smacked around a bit at the onset when beginning her working life down in Kentucky in mid September, but showed some mettle in finishing 3rd that day on a course with some give to it. February foal is bred to do some good things on the verde, and could make a solid impression with a tidier trip. #6 NIENTE showed a whole lot more than "nothing" when going all the way at Philadelphia Park on the 29th of July, and the 2nd & 3rd place finishers both got their photographs taken next time out, improving in the Beyer dept. by an avg. of 9.5 points. Turf pedigree is still unproven, but we love the works on display since the maiden breaker. #2 FABRICATE as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 7-3-8-6-2


Race  10

1.More Like It

2.Turn of Events

3.Scotty Brown

#5 MORE LIKE IT drops down into the claiming ranks today, gets in with a feather, and from a tiny sampling in DRF Formulator, Bruce Brown is two for four with Elmont based turf stayers off breaks of less than two fortnights ( $26 & $8 ). Note that the two best efforts have come when breaking from outside the four hole, so perhaps this one will appreciate a little more daylight beneath an improving apprentice. #7 TURN OF EVENTS enters today off a lifetime best BSF, and probably has the best resume' of anyone in the field; Maker has scored with both of his turf routers dropping 50% or more off breaks of 17 days or < ( $5 & $2 ). #3 SCOTTY BROWN has some zip, won his lone start at this trip, and was a game runner up in his only start at this trip.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-13(AE)-14(AE) 

Belmont          ( Current ):     18-140     ( $173.00 ) Beatable    Favorites    0-11  ( 0% )    Favorites Win %      42-140   ( 30.0% )( As of Sunday morning )

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-34       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-34   ( 35.8% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout