SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/16


Well, we couldn't have ended last week on a more solid note, as for the 3rd time ever here, we hit EVERY rolling wager on the card. Did this despite a sloppy track, and after making a slew of amendments.

We had...

--Three winners of $8, $28 & $6

--A $23 Exacta Box & a $164 cold Exacta

--An $82 Triple Box & a $730 cold Triple

--Six Rolling Daily Doubles of $33, $13, $32, $66, $24 & $49, AND two Cold Doubles of $184 & $219

--Six Rolling Pick Threes of $60, $95, $90, $1,048, $420 & $209 AND a Cold Pk. 3 of $555

--Two Rolling Pick Fours of $344 & $4,075

--Two Rolling Pick Fives of $2,177 & $27,079

--A Rolling Pick Six of $9,566

--A successful Beatable Favorite ( or 22nd of the last 23 )


Let's keep it going today !!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #8 Windfall Profit  Race 10 - #4 Linear Thinking ( Ire )

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/16


Race  1

1.French Reef ( Ire ) 

2.Maxwell Esquire

3.Montauk Daddy

#6 FRENCH REEF (IRE) clearly bounced off the lifetime best numero in the 2nd off the break attempt, but we'll be a bit forgiving here, as Brown has a 4-7 ledger with third off the shelf turf sprinters who missed the baccala last out & are 13-1 or less today. The winners came back a roubust $5, $20, $11 & $6, and there's a sub category of 2 fer 2 on the inner. #3 MAXWELL ESQUIRE has improved with each passing start since beginning his working life last August, and comes in off an all out nose victory on the Widener 27 days in the rear. From a limited sampling, C-Squared is 4:2-1-1 with runners of this ilk who scored < 55 days back & are ridden by Rosario ( $4 & $10 ). The bloom has come a bit off the rose for #2 MONTAUK DADDY since the first three starts ( where he crashed the board in each ), as he's failed to make any kind of impression since. Leaving beneath without much confidence.  OFF TURF: 8-3-2-4-7


Race  2

1.Little Nutter


3.Miss Morgantown

#3 LITTLE NUTTER has been a completely different animal since transitioning to the sod, and this is pretty much a similar spot to that of the placing in New Joyzee back on 9/26. Don't judge the jock by his %, as he's been riding a lot of billy goats of late, but there's some talent in the irons, and we're expecting a solid effort today. #8 CONVENTIONALWISDOM will be the only one we'll utilize as a saver for the above, given the connections & solid pedigree. #9 MISS MORGANTOWN takes the biggest drop in the biz and may appreciate getting off the wood.   OFF TURF: 10-5-4-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-5-7.  NOTE: DUE TO A SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-7-6.


Race  3

1.La Urbana

2.A Bit o'Irish Sass


#5 LA URBANA displayed some early zip when beginning her working life on the 20th of September, but faded late in the game when finishing fifth. January foal is eligible to improve off that effort, especially given the solid pedigree ( 377 Tomlinson Figure ), and it's encouraging to see Rosario return. #1 A BIT O'IRISH SASS outran her odds when completing the superfecta at 12-1 first time out, and that's saying something for a barn that has never done well with firsters. Slides in from the seven hole to the pine & should appreciate the extra 16th of a mile. #3 VALLARAND went for double the stud fee at auction and has a bullet gate breeze on display -- which ALWAYS merits inclusion. Watch out, suckahs !!


Race  4 



3.Business Cycle

#2 AUTOSTRADE rises up the ladder ever so slightly for the second straight time, and despite Rudy Rod being an icicle these days, we unearthed a decent DRF Formulator stat for this outfit. Over the last 1,826 days, 19% shedrow is a jazzy 7:4-1-1 with locally based mid level dirt stock who were 1-2-3 < 44 days back & are ridden by Junior ( $7, $5, $13 & $6 ). Gotta love the soon to be 11 year old #3 MILLS still chugging along, as this one has been in the money for half of his 74 career starts. Hard to argue with those digging an animal with an 8:3-0-1-4 record over his last nonnet. #7 BUSINESS CYCLE sure is a popular item at the claim box, having changed addresses after 8 of his last 13 calls to the post, and why not, as this lightly raced chestnut chap usually gives a good account of himself. 


Race  5


2.Love That Face

3.Mebs Web

#1 CRICK was a clearly beaten and decently clear runner up in a nearly identical spot at the end of Sept., and Bob Dunham ( who wins just 6% of the time ) is a square 7:2-1-1 with dirt runners who were a part of the triple less than 44 days back & are 28-1 or undah ( $8 & $13 ) w/a sub category of two for two in the maiden claiming ranks. #2 LOVE THAT FACE can be forgiven the turf flop, as this three year old is poorly bred for the verde, and now switches back to what will likely be her preferred surface down the road. The two dirt outings are likely much better than the speed figures belie, as she didn't have the best of journeys in either. #4 MEBS WEB has been a part of the superfecta in four straight, ( after only accomplishing such in two of her first eight ) and is sensible in this spot. 


Race  6 

1.Mo Maverick

2.Noble Emotion


#1 MO MAVERICK is 2 for 2 at the trip, 4:2-1-1 when breaking from the innermost three slots on the grass, and Rodriguez is a snappy 6:4-1-0 when being handed a horse and spotting them in a turf dash off a sabbatical of 68 days or more ( 40-1 or lower ) with FAT mutuels of $6, $15, $26 & $12. Could be tough to down if able to catch a flyer. #3 NOBLE EMOTION is fleet afoot and makes his third start off the respite this afternoon. Major threat if able to outgun the above. #2 FREEWHEELER went coast to coast like jam on toast in his sole spin on the inner turf course, and despite the hike in class, deserves your respect.  OFF TURF: 8-2-3-6-5  NOTE: AS OF 2:41 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OD 12:29, OUR SELECTIONS WILL NOW BE 9-3-4-5-6.


Race  7

1.Madeleine Must ( Fr )

2.Secure Connection


#3 MADELEINE MUST (FR) makes her second start off a "true" L/O in this spot, and is but a length shy of a perfect 2 for 2 record in that sort of scenario. Decent trainer statistic in play here, as Clement clicks at a 5-17 rate with 2nd off the break optional turf sprinters who were I.T.M. last out & are 8-1 or beneath today ( with a sub category of 2-2 at BEL ). #6 SECURE CONNECTION sure doesn't need to take her track with here, as gamely gal goes over her twelfth different strip in just as many starts. Shug charge would be aided by any pace to cut into. #8 KREESIE owns a lovely 8:4-0-2 boxscore on the Widener turf course and has done good things @ this dx. as well.  OFF TURF: 1-4-5(MTO)-2(MTO)-10(MTO)   NOTE: AS OF 2:48 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  8 

1.Rock Sugar

2.Rational Choice

3.Ten for Ten

#1 ROCK SUGAR improved by about 20% from his first start to the next, and although switching surfaces in this spot, was dropped by a lady who was three of seven on the brown stuff ( 211 large ), and of course the rest of the family tree ( Frosted, Tiznow, Tapit ) needs no introduction. From a small survey, Mott is a saucy 4:3-0-1 with maiden special weight dirt equines off L/O's of 58-66 days ( 39-1 or below ) with returns of $10, $14 & $6, and there's a sub category of two for two right here in NY. #2 RATIONAL CHOICE was a daylight clear runner up first time out, and is bred to do good things. #6 TEN FOR TEN adds blinkers off a sold placing in the bow, and we like when a trainer's not scared to make an equipment/medication change off a good performance. Two returnees from that heat finished first & second in their followup engagements, with an avg. BSF improvement of 18 points between them. 


Race  9 

1.Coilean Brown

2.Key Biscayne 


#7 COILEAN BROWN is a steady if unspectacular sort who's three best efforts ( a win & two placings ) have come right here. Slight edge in a race that's tough to decipher. #3 KEY BISCAYNE has scored in two of her last three starts outside of stakes company and may perk up. #4 WHATDOESASHARKSAY possesses a 3:1-0-1 record on the ITC and gets a slight upgrade in the jockey area today.  OFF TURF: 3-9-2-4-1  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 WINDFALL PROFIT doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?  NOTE: AS OF 12:38, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 1-9-2-5-3.


Race  10

1.Reina Del Sol 

2.Never Content ( Ire )

3.No Ordinary Time 

#2 REINA DEL SOL was a fair third when beginning her working life up in the Adirondacks a couple'a months back, but don't judge the defeat too harshly, as her entrymate got the job done that afternoon. Bill Mott more than doubles his normative batting average with mdspwt. second time routers/second time starters who were part of the action 49-67 days back, as he has a 2 for 6 mark with 'em. #1A NEVER CONTENT hasn't done much in the A.M.'s to get the pulse racing for today's debut, but is fantastically bred for this sorta deal and we'd be remiss in excluding. #6 NO ORDINARY TIME flashed a bit of early hoof when starting things out, and as this 40G bred animal went for 15 times that amount at Keeneland last year, we'll toss into the cake batter.  OFF TURF: 2-11-6-4-7   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 LINEAR THINKING (IRE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-6-1A-10-1.

Belmont          ( Current ):     23-159     ( $234.00 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-13  ( 7.7% )  Favorites Win %      48-159   ( 30.2% )( As of Tuesday morning ) 

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-35       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-35   ( 34.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout