SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/22


Overall profitable day on Sunday with our Belmont & Graded Stakes writeups -- which now has a flat bet profit for the year. Additionally, our "Beatable Favorites" have now been successful in 23 of our last 24 tries.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/22


Race  1

1.Dr. Shane

2.Catch a Cab


#6 DR. SHANE hasn't shown much over his last quartet, but finds himself at his lowest level to date, is 1 for 3 on the Widener, 1 for 2 @ the trip, and 23% shotcaller has a 3 fer 5 ledger with mid level turf stayers off breaks of 65 days or less ( < 19-1 ). The winners in this sampling came back $10 x 2 & $24, and Looie guided this one to victory the last time they were in tandem. #2 CATCH A CAB is a groovy 11-4-1-1 on this course, 3:1-0-1 when first to load, and may sit a snug trip today. #5 PIPES has a bit of back class & can round things out.  OFF TURF: 5-1-1A(MTO)-6-3


Race  2

1.No Lime

2.Advance Notice

3.Saratoga Pal

#4 NO LIME outran his odds when finishing a well clear runner up in the lone start off the bench, and it's always encouraging to see the pre-layoff pilot return. Meekest of selections in an uninspiring race. #7 ADVANCE NOTICE faded late in the game when facing winners for the first time 18 days back, but the speed figure from the bow was essentially replicated, and that's always encouraging. Reunited with Irad this afternoon, and they were in tandem for the maiden breaker. #5 SARATOGA PAL has hit the board in three straight, and that includes a slightly troubled but decent showing right here in the most recent try. Logical inclusion.   NOTE: AS OF 11:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3

1.Elegant Zip 

2.Merlins Muse

3.Risky Mischief

Today's the day, folks. Today's the day that Donk gets off the schneid, that has now crept up to oh-fer-53. He has two signed on, and we're betting he does it with #6 ELEGANT ZIP. Four year old has bested but one in the last duet, but barn has a lively 7:4-0-2 record when cutting back his optional turf stock off L/O's of 55 days or undah, with payouts of $8, $10, $11, $12 & $13 ( 23-1 or less ). Well, if we're gonna go put on a limb for the top spot, why not double down on Double-D with #7 MERLINS MUSE ? Chestnut mare owns a two for three record in 3rd off the L/O spots, and that stands out against the 0-14 record otherwise. #1 RISKY MISCHIEF has shown steady improvement over her last quartet, and that includes her recent pair on the gramma. Like one of our selections earlier today, this one found the line first the only time I. Ortiz was legged up.  OFF TURF: 4(MTO)-5-1-6-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4 

1.Me and Mr. C 


3.Creative Plan

#6 ME AND MR. C was a visually impressive victor when besting 32K foes on the 18th of September, and after keeping him in jail for the 20% dropdown that day, Maker spots this one at a level 25% higher than the purchase price from two back. While a bounce is always possible off a career best outing, this one is looking good. #8 DYNADRIVE was ambitiously spotted in what was in essence a Grade One event down in Franklin Ky. last out, after being snagged for 40 large in the start prior. The result was disastrous that day, and with the "false" running line on the page, this one just may be safe at today's 50K level. Note the bullet breeze on display. #9 CREATIVE PLAN put forth a game showing in his sole D to T attempt, and got his photo taken the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. Hard not to like the 4 for 8 lifetime ledger.  OFF TURF: 6-7(MTO)-5-8-3


Race  5

1.Mucho Sunshine

2.Tri Saint Lorenzo

3.Market Impact

#7 MUCHO SUNSHINE displayed improved speed in the most recent, and did such despite getting smacked around a bit early on in the game. 4YO makes his 3rd try off the respite in this spot, and the only other time he ran off of this kind of break, he outran his 30-1 odds in finishing 4th. Martinez knows how to send 'em, and we'll take a flyer at big odds. #5 TRI SAINT LORENZO usually gives a decent account of himself, and while he's suckered us in a few times, we'd be remiss in excluding. #1 MARKET IMPACT is a $350,000 animal who returned off an elongated absence to merely split the field against 40K foes on the inner, and he is now transferred back over to the brown stuff while dropping another dime. Will likely be overbet, but I suppose we have to leave him in the mix. 


Race  6 

1.Lady Rosalie ( Ire )

2.This Just In

3.Look Me Over

#5 LADY ROSALIE (IRE) sure doesn't need to take her track with her, as this one has raced on ten different surfaces from her eleven calls to the post, and she gives the ol' college try every time. Solid runner up finish directly in front of a next out winner down in Maryland five weeks back, and the Beyer for that 3rd place finisher was a 4.8% improvement over the prior outing. We're landing on Irad once again today. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with the #3 THIS JUST IN, who has a bullet move on the docket amidst a bevy of ordinary works for today's overture. Pretty well bred for this sort deal. #4 LOOK ME OVER has three decent running lines and three stinkers; who ya gettin' today?  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-8(MTO)-7


Race  7

1.Luckey Ramsey

2.Hammerin Aamer

3.Bluegrascat's Smile

#6 LUCKEY RAMSEY fell short by only a sliver at this level on the lawn 2 1/2 weeks back, and seven year old has "miraculously" improved since being switched over to the Claudio Gonzalez barn, having hit the exacta in seven straight after failing to do such in six straight and nine of ten ( Another Festivus MIRACLE !! ). Although he's back on the sand today, historically speaking, this one is just a few points worse on the brown stuff, so we're expecting another solid performance. #4 HAMMERIN AAMER was doubled up in price after the first start off the 8/22 claim, and only beat one home that day when a tad overmatched. Rosario sticks around for today's drop, and given this one's proclivity towards solid efforts at this trip & over this strip, we'll toss into the hopper. #4 BLUEGRASCAT'S SMILE has done his best work at this dx. and can clunk along for a slice. 


Race  8 

1.Ballagh Rocks

2.Winning Factor


#7 BALLAGH ROCKS is back in for a tag after besting restricted stakes foes up at the Spa on closing day, and despite the whopping eight pound addition here, this seven yr. old "horse" ( You keep 'em hangin', buddy !!" ) looms a solid selection given his mark at this distance. #10 WINNING FACTOR had the three race win streak snapped a bit over a month ago, but by no means disgraced himself that day when finishing 2nd after a troubled sojourn. #9 SENTRY exits a race where two of five returnees came back to win their subsequent outings, basically replicating their prior #'s. Would be aided by some quick early splits.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-7-3(MTO)-9-2(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 6:51 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  9 

1.Silver Token

2.Key to Victory

3.Hurricane Andrew

#9 SILVER TOKEN takes the plunge after burning some bread, and DePaz is "De One" with runners of this ilk off layoffs of 46 days or below, with payoffs of $2, $4, $5 & $9 ( 15-1 or undah ). #1 KEY TO VICTORY showed stark improvement from the first start to the next, and takes the biggest drop in the game today while adding blinkers and switching from an apprentice to a journeyman. Pat Kelly ( who doesn't win many races ) has won two of six turf routers at this level who missed the baccala < 52 days back & are 18-1 or lower ( $11 & $16 ). #3 HURRICANE ANDREW has a couple of fair turf lines and may jazz things up at a big number.  OFF TURF: 1-2(MTO)-5-6-13(MTO) 

Belmont          ( Current ):     28-189     ( $267.00 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-14  ( 7.2% )  Favorites Win %      56-189   ( 29.6% )( As of Monday morning )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       8-36       ( $74.80 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-37   ( 32.4% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout