SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 4/22 - Opening Day
  
  

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Happy Opening Day, everyone !! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #3 Maxwell Esquire


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 4/22 - Opening Day

 

Race  1

1.Triple Americano

2.Principino

3.Full Court Press

Starting out the meet with an omnifig ( "As rare as the ivory billed woodpecker." ) as both of #7 TRIPLE AMERICANO's speed figures are better than anything anyone in the race has put up to date. Gelding goes inside to outside today, and note the solid showing the only other time he was made available for purchase. No worse than third for all you show punters out there. #1A PRINCIPINO has been a part of the superfecta in four of five starts to date and takes the biggest drop in the game this afternoon. Jock upgrade in play as well for today's third start off the bench. Logical. #3 FULL COURT PRESS displayed appreciable improvement from his first start to the second, and we like when a trainer ( especially a Hall of Famer ) isn't scared to make an equipment/medication change off a solid effort ( blinks now go on ).  

 

Race  2

1.Principled Stand

2.Aasr

3.Fame to Famous

#4 PRINCIPLED STAND (GB) went coast to coast like butter and toast when beginning his working life down at Oldsmar a bit over three months ago, and once Brown saw that effort he immediately kept him away from the races -- but NOT the worktab. Why? Well simply put, he doesn't run many at GP, the Tampa purses are poor, and today's pot is just a bit south of the century mark. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #3 AASR tries the gramma for the first time, and this one is a half to a 1 for 4 turfer ( 48 large ). #8 FAME TO FAMOUS is much better when going over firm ground than that which has some give to it, so we'll give this one a chance to spice things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-4-8-2-6(MTO)

 

Race  3

1.Zerenia

2.Levelplayingfield

3.Patti D

#3 ZERENIA has been beset by some layoff lines, but right off the bat, we take note of her 53-59-61-62 Beyer progression, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Blinkers are now a part of the equation, which should give this one a bit more speed, and as happens often with Terranova runners, there's a nice DRF Formulator statistic in play. Over the last 60 months, aforementioned bossman is a poyfect three of three with second off the layoff turf dashers in the 1-27 day bracket at 22-1 or less ( $7, $9 & $10 ). #7 LEVELPLAYINGFIELD was a bit tardy to the party at first asking, but switches surfaces here and is wonderfully bred for this sorta deal, so we're expecting some improvement. #2 PATTI D was a well beaten 3rd in a strung out field when returning off a 3 1/2 month respite, and fourth different track condition from as many starts to date may end up being her best one down the road.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-1

 

Race  4 

1.Square Shooter

2.Clench

3.Always Sunshine

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #4 SQUARE SHOOTER returned off the voided claim/layoff to finish a lively runner up in the Kelly Kip ( one of the best NYB sprinters of all time ) at the end of March, and while a bounce is always possible off of a career effort, we like the confident placement. #2 CLENCH has been a popular item at the claim box, as five year old has had to change his address the last five times he's been available for purchase, and why not, as this chap always seems to give a good account of himself. Three for three mark positively leaps off the page, and we're expecting a goodie. #3 ALWAYS SUNSHINE has a 6:3-1-1-1 ledger off a L/O, and completed the triple in the Fall Highweight in his sole pairing with Jose. 

 

Race  5

1.Fast Getaway

2.Battle Station

3.Smooth B

#2 FAST GETAWAY hasn't been seen since Toga time, but gelding owns a 4:2-1-1 mark when coming off a break in the action on a firm course, and has also done nice work beneath today's pilot. Slight edge in a race with just one first draft elimination. #7 BATTLE STATION is another returning off a hiatus, but pre layoff pilot comes back, which we take as a positive, as it shows nothing untoward happened the last time they paired up. Fella has a touch of back class and isn't hopeless in this spot. #6 SMOOTH B found the line first the last time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and is one of two in second off the layoff attempts on the sand.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 MAXWELL ESQUIRE

 

Race  6 

1.Coalition Building

2.Spatial

3.Ceant

#2 COALITION BUILDING returned off an elongated absence to come along belatedly in completing the superfecta down in Hallandale Beach three months in the rear, but then fell off the worktab for a month before getting back into the swing of things on the fifth of March. Four year old has a maturity advantage over all but one here, and seems to be nicely spotted for the comebacker. #7 SPATIAL bested more than half the field when beginning her working life at Tampa Bay Downs 39 days ago, and the monstrous 369 turf Tommy says to us that there's ample room for improvement off that effort. #8 CEANT has a nice overall body of work, and can't fault those taking a favorable view.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3 

 

Race  7

1.Ruvies In Time

2.Pleasant Orb

3.Aunt Kat

Another heat where our top troika should suffice.  #5 RUVIES IN TIME shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, given the way this one has shown much more speed over her last three starts than ever before. From a small sampling, Schosberg is two fer five with allowance dirt stock who scored less than 51 days ago in this odds range ( $15 & $6 ), and take note that gal is 2 for 6 over a local glib surface. #1 PLEASANT ORB hasn't faced the starter in about ten flips of the calendar, but hung up an adj. 88.1 when placing in her lone dash off the pine, and rates a puncher's chance if fully cranked up. #2 AUNT KAT burst through the maiden ranks in a big way right here on 3/13, but may end up being a bit overbet off that last #, so we'll keep beneath.  

 

Race  8 

1.Nebo

2.Undetectable

3.Sport Model

Wide open finale here, so tread lightly.  #11 NEBO hasn't shown much over her last quartet, but gal is a full to a 3:1-0-1 turf dasher ( 30G+ ), and is backed by a tidy but tight trainer statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, Gyarmati is two of three when spotting her sprinters on the sod for the first time off breaks of 25-67 days ( $22 & $35 ), and there's a sub category of one for one with maiden claimers as well. #5 UNDETECTABLE has no green in the family tree, but sometimes dirt speed can carry a horse a long way in a cheap turf sprint, and this one showed some of that when starting things out on National Hangover Day. #3 SPORT MODEL takes the biggest drop in the game after being vanned off first time out; mixed signals.  OFF TURF: 8-13(AE)-1-9-5

 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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