SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 4/23


Noce start to the meet yesterday with a profitable three bagger, as favorites continue to rule the roost ( 67 for their last 121, dating back to closing weekend at the Aqueduct Winter meet -- 55.4% ). 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 4/23


Race  1


2.Action Potential

3.Dream Party

#1 KAVOD bested more than half the field at 15-1 first time out, and the lone returnee from that affair got the job done down there when next in action. There's a decent ( 3 for 7, $7, $5 & $13 ) DRF Formulator stat in play here, and we'll have to take a deep breath before laying it out... 2YO male second time sand sprinters who missed the board less than 32 days back& are 65-1 or less. Manny Man gets the assignment. #2 ACTION POTENTIAL has the same trainer statistic behind him, but we'll lean towards the former because of the aforementioned return winner. #5 DREAM PARTY was a bit tardy to the party at first asking, but came along nicely to get some place bread, and being a gal, gets a weight break.   NOTE: AS OF 2:46 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  2

1.B C Glory Days

2.Saratoga Flash

3.Clever Fellow

There are three decent sets of trainer statistics in play here, so let's get to 'em. #1 B C GLORY DAYS owns oodles of speed, has yet to miss the board, and Terranova ( once again ) is 5:2-0-2 with first time turf routers at 19-1 or less ( $39 & $16 ). Giants Causeway in the family tree aids the cause. #2 SARATOGA FLASH has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but hasn't missed a work since last seen in Hallandale Beach, and the L/O could likely be attributed to being patient for the 75K NYB pot this afternoon, rather than the purses just about half of that down south. Tagg is it with those going long on the lawn off absences of 68-70 days, as the 3 fer 7 ( $10, $19 & $3 ) mark belies. #9 CLEVER FELLOWS has been sent to the shelf after each trip to the track, but owns two exacta finishes, and barn is two of six with those going long AND on the lawn for the 1st time @ odds of 17-1 or undah ( $5 & $9 ).  OFF TURF: 8-1-6(MTO)-4-2


Race  3

1.Miss Brazil 

2.Slam Dunk

3.Truth Hurts

#1 MISS BRAZIL appears to be the clear speed of this deal, owns some class, was but a half length shy of completing the hat trick last out, and has the wonder drug administered for the first time in today's third start off the layoff. Immensely playable. #3 SLAM DUNK is another making her 3rd try off a respite, and outran her offering in her sole attempt at Big Sandy in the Grade One Frizette a year and a half ago. Chance to rebound off the GP flop. #4 TRUTH HURTS hasn't been in action since the fall, and well travelled gal ( her fifth different venue in her last five trips to the track ) gets some much needed relief for today's comebacker, & note that her best work has come beneath today's jock. 


Race  4 

1.Bar Fourteen 

2.Grape Nuts Warrior

3.Lucky Brody

#8 BAR FOURTEEN got set down from second to third when being hiked up in class 20 days in the rear, and now frigid barn goes over the blades for the first time this afternoon. When it comes to his turf routers who crashed the fiesta < 40 days back ( 20-1 or undah ), Bruce Brown is a healthy 3-8 ( 1 for 1 with those at his level, and 2 for 8 with those on the Widener ). Apprentice to journeyman angle in play here. #4 GRAPE NUTS WARRIOR brings a solid gate breeze along for today's first afternoon action, and you must respect the connex as well. #5 LUCKY BRODY has some fair turf bloodlines and returns off the freshening with the wonder drug.  OFF TURF: 5-4-2-1-3

Race  5


2.Texas Reward


#5 OVERDRESSED took the obligatory hike in class after being snagged for 20 large on 3/19, and promptly got walloped against 50K starter competition over in Ozone Park. Five returnees from that affair have amassed a cumulative 5:2-1-0-1 mark in their subsequent ( three ) outings, and there's a decent Formulator stat in action. Over the last 260 weeks, Potts has a handle with his 2nd off the claim mid level dirt stock who missed the baccala 8-50 days ago, as he's 5:3-1-0 w/that type at 14-1 or < ( $9, $7 & $10 ) -- and there's a sub category of 2-2 at NYRA. #6 TEXAS REWARD has partaken in the "exactor" in 4 of 5 and deserves your respect just because of that alone. #3 BUSTINMYGROOVE has never been entered this cheaply and rounds out the top three.  Due to a gate scratch in Race 5, #1 will be our 3rd selection.


Race  6 

1.Flashing Red



#6 FLASHING RED earned his keep down in the Bayou, garnering a win & a fourth place finish from three starts, and returns to a course where she was a convincing victress when tangling with winners for the first time back in the fall. Filly gets a bity of break in the weights with the posted conditions, and the J/T combo has been firing on all cylinders when they team up in a turf route, as they're on a 20:8-4-2-1 run at this circuit, with payouts of $31, $9 x 2, $6, $4, $5, $32 & $10. #4 KILKEA has been a model of consistency over the last 13 1/2 months, running up a 7:3-4-0 mark, with two of those placings coming on this course. Junior understandably goes with the bigger barn, but Kendrick is a more than capable substitute. #1 CRYSTALLE is a nice 4:1-1-1-1 outside of stakes company, and may grind out a share. 

Race  7


2.Croi Mor

3.Ultimate Irony 

#1 Z'FINALE was a convincing diploma earner on the Aqueduct main 48 days back, and although there's a surface transition in play today, don't be alarmed, as the adjusted speed figures from this one's triad of turf jammies came back ( for this allotment ) honest enough. Legit shot to go back to back. #4 CROI MOR is back in the northeast after admirably plying his trade in the southeast and far west over the last year plus. Perhaps the light bulb stays on for this former nibbler after the maiden breaker, and gelding was a snappy runner up beneath Jose the last time they met. From an itty bitty survey, Falcone is two of four with his mid level turf routers who procured the sheepskin less than three fortnights back ( 22-1 or below ), with parimutuel returns of $26 & $7. #12 ULTIMATE IRONY can be forgiven the disappointment on the Fair Grounds dirt a month ago, as three yr. old is appreciably better on the gramma. Would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9


Race  8 

1.Winners Laugh

2.Captain Bombastic

3.Big Engine

We don't have the best of reads on this race so tread lightly.  #3 WINNERS LAUGH went coast to coast like butter and toast at AQU on the seventh of March, and did such despite hitting the gate at the start ( which seemingly happens quite a lot ). The 368 Tomlinson figure for the trip says to us that the result was likely not an aberration, and we'll hitch our wagon to her once again. #4 CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC was anything but "fahn-tastic" when burning some bread in Elmont back in October, but colt was "smooooth" in his only start off the pine over a fast track, scoring right here in the Mike Lee. Obvious factor if fully cranked up off the trainer change. #5 BIG ENGINE digs this trio & strip; playable. 

Race  9 

1.Matty's Marauder ( AE )

2.Cracker Box Palace


#12 MATTY'S MARAUDER (AE) needs a couple, to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, will be in a "2nd off the L/O" scenario, under which he posted an adjusted 72.3 BSF in his only similar layoff spot -- AND his only start making that second left hand turn. Should be a decent price. #7 CRACKER BOX PALACE hasn't done much to get the pulse racing, but could wake up in today's "second off the break/second time Lasix" deal. #10 JARREAU has a decent overall body of work, but according to my good buddy Paul, is on a grotesque 1 for 51 skein.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-10-11(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 3:02, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont            ( Current ):  3-8           ( $29.80 )   Beatable Favorites       1-1  ( 100% ) Favorites   Win %:     5-8       ( 62.5% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout