SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 4/30 - Churchill Downs - La Troienne Kentucky Oaks
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Belmont ( where we have a flat bet profit ), merely go back one page.

We come into today's selected Graded Stakes analysis on a 27-170 streak ( $340 Bet - $356.20 Returned ) over the last 2 1/2 years ( 9/15/18 ).

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 4/30 - Churchill Downs - La Troienne & Kentucky Oaks

 

 Race 8

1.Paris Lights

2.Sanenus ( Chi )

3.Shedaresthedevil

#5 PARIS LIGHTS tries to get one for the thumb today, and it's well within reach for a runner who's 2 for 2 locally, 3 for 3 beneath Tyler ( replacing a recovering Junior ) on a fast track, and 1 for 1 sans the wonder drug. Lone one turn to two turn attempt yielded a score, and we'd be doing friggin' cartwheels should this one be 8-1 come post time ( She won the Coaching Club Oaks for crying out loud, and hasn't lost since. ). #6 SANENUS (CHI) has partaken in the super in her quintet of starts since arriving in the states, and that includes two attempts on this strip. Not quite sure why McCarthy kept Castellano on, as Umberto knew what he was doing in the start prior to that, unless the last was a two race "deal". #2 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL has found the line first in her troika of trips on this strip, is 3:2-0-1 in "true" second off the layoff engagements, and has done little wrong for Geroux; deserving favorite. 

 

 

      Race 11

1.Crazy Beautiful

2.Search Results

3.Travel Column

#4 CRAZY BEAUTIFUL has been a part of the exacta in all her ( non pre-layoff ) starts to date, which includes one right here & another one w/ today's pilot. We like the progression shown from the first 2021 deal to the followup, and the adjusted 92.6 Beyer last year, tells us that the "upwards arrow" can definitely continue this afternoon. With DRF Formulator, we ascertained that the only other time this one has worked a bullet, a snappy win was the end result. #12 SEARCH RESULTS owns ( "Owwwwwns....owwwwwwwns." ) an unblemished record, and has accomplished such while stretching out in distance, stepping up in class, and improving in the adj. BSF departtment. Logical. #6 TRAVEL COLUMN comes in today off a smart win down in the Bayou, and overcame a lot of trouble to get her photo taken in her only heat at this locale. 

  

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  11-35        ( $95.70 )   Beatable Favorites      2-2  ( 100% ) Favorites   Win %:     17-35     ( 48.6% )( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017