SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 5/1 - Churchill Downs - All the Grade One's on Derby Day


Just a remider that for today's full card selections & analysis for Belmont Park, merely go back one page.

We come into today's selected Graded Stakes analysis on a 27-172 streak ( $344 Bet - $356.20 Returned ) over the last 2 1/2 years ( 9/15/18 ).

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Graded Stakes - 5/1 - Churchill Downs - All the Grade One's on Derby Day


Race 7  

1.Estilo Talentoso


3.Bell's the One

#1 ESTILO TALENTOSO is a nibbler by nature ( 12:2-8-2 ) but stepped up her game in a big way when placing in the Madison at a zillion to one last time out, and now slides in to the pine, from where she has a win & a placing from as many attempts. This is our favorite kind of race ( A Grade one going seven panels ), and we like how this one has changed her game a bit to become somewhat of a stalker -- which often works at this tricky distance. Don't sleep on Javy at 15-1. #4 GAMINE has won two straight since being disqualified from purse money after Bob Baffert's Baked Beans was found guilty of having this one race with an illegal Class 3 ( "I'm shocked -- shocked !!" ), and found the line first in her only "true" second off the L/O jammie. #3 BELL'S THE ONE is 4:2-2-0 in Louisville, 8:2-3-2 at this trip, and 2:1-0-1 in one turn, second off the break engagements; may be rolling late. 


      Race 10

1.Attachment Rate


3.Mind Control

We have three solid sets of DRF Formulator stats in play here, and to quote Al Pacino in 'Carlito's Way' -- "Without further to do..."   #6 ATTACHMENT RATE: ( Cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ), is conditioned by 14% Dale Romans, who quadruples that rate ( 4 for 7 ) with locally based graded dirt sprinters who were in the money 6-50 days back & are 24-1 or undah ( $50, $9, $6 & $15 ). Will need some pace to cut into. #7 SHASHASHAKEMEUP: ( Also spotted on Friday ) will be brought over by a bossman who's won three of five 2nd off the L/O graded dirt dashers who won < three fortnights in the rear & are 13-1 or lowah ( positive return on investment ). #2 MIND CONTROL: Sacco is a crisp 9:4-0-2 with runners of this ilk who were ITM 6-50 days back & are beneath the 24-1 watermark ( $23, $22, $6 & $5 ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.



      Race 11


2.Smooth Like Strait

3.Count Again

You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the recent quartet of #1 MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS, as Baltas charge has done nothing but improve since arriving in the great U.S. of A., and with the "Outstanding" ( see the dam for the double entendre ) turf pedigree, who knows where her ceiling is. Rosario guided this one to a tally in their lone pairing, and the aforementioned 17% conditioner more than doubles that rate with graded turf stayers who crashed the fiesta 17-67 days in the rear @ 10-1 or under ( $5, $8, $17 & $6 ). #7 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT is one fer two at this trip and on this course, and shedrow has a 3-10 boxscore with those fitting this criteria off sabbaticals of 45-67 days ( $23, $6 & $8 ). #2 COUNT AGAIN came flying late to fall a bit short in the Frank Kilroe at 16-1, and deserves your respect with one of the finest finishers in the game taking the reins for the first time.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-2-6




      Race 12

1.Brooklyn Strong

2.Rock Your World

3.Medina Spirit

Last "year's" Derby, we were down in Louisville doing some work for the Tiz the Law's crew, and this annum, we'll be back in the famous man cave. It just may be one of the most competitive renditions we've seem in quite some time, and as is the case in ANY wide open race we handicap ( even if it's an $8,000 claimer at Aqueduct in January ), we'll look for a price.  #3 BROOKLYN STRONG ( Dig it ) had progressed nicely in his freshman campaign ( 53-62-77-94 ), before being shelved for the winter ( and a little bit more ) by sharp trainer in Danny Velazquez. This one was NOT fully cranked up for the comebacker in the Wood, and loathed being placed on the inside by Franco ( who has been promptly replaced by Rispoli -- who was sacked off one of the favorites here also ( Karma , anyone ? ). The adjusted speed figure for the Remsen ( 101.1 ) fits with these, and 18% DV is 2 for 7 with three year old male dirt routers who missed the baccala 6-50 days back, and you will definitely get some inflated value here, given the recent OTB finish, the fact that this one just made it into the race, and that Mattress Mack is rumored to be betting $2,000,000 to win on Essential Quality, which will help the price on others a touch. We were hoping for a 7-12 draw, but as Rispoli has experience riding in full fields back home, we're thinking he'll work out a decent trip. We were all over #15 ROCK YOUR WORLD, and he didn't disappoint, going coast to coast like butter and toast to the tune of $12, and it wasn't like he stole the race that day, as his ears were playfully flicking around, and had plenty to spare at the end. A little bit of "Barbaro" working here, with the prior turf experience, and we can't fault those taking a favorable view. #8 MEDINA SPIRIT has done very little wrong for Lidocaine Bob thus far, and while no match for RYW last out, we'd be remiss in excluding.




Belmont            ( Current ):  11-53        ( $95.70 )   Beatable Favorites      3-5  ( 60% )   Favorites   Win %:     25-53     ( 47.2% )( As of Saurday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-18         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     7-18      ( 38.9% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout