SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 4/24
  
  

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Another profitable three bagger for us here yesterday, as with four more favorites coming in, they are now on a 71 for 130 ( 53.9% ) streak going back to the closing weekend of the Aqueduct winter meet. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 First Captain


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 4/24

 

Race  1

1.Mahaamel

2.Bode O 

3.Ghostconqueror

#4 MAHAAMEL went for more than three times the $225,000 Into Mischief breeding fee ( gee, we were high on that sire when he was much, much less ) at auction in '19, and brings in tow a healthy 375 Tomlinson for today's bow. According to DRF Formulator, The Toddster is 8:3-1-1 with firsters fitting all these exact parameters ( any jock/sex ) at 8-1 or less, and there's a sub category of 2-2 with male runners ( $11 & $5 x 2 ). Note that the lone sibling to race won his only start ( 83.6 adj. ). #7 BODE O fell short by only a sliver when starting things out at Philadelphia Park 2 1/2 weeks ago, and was nearly eight lengths clear of the runner up that day. The BSF came back a bit lowish, but this one is bred to do better, and of course, we love the draw. #1 GHOSTCONQUEROR has a maturity edge over the entire allotment, and worked out well from the gate on March 20th.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 FIRST CAPTAIN will be led over by a shotcaller who's oh-fer-14 with male firsters on the dirt at 6-1 or less. 

 

Race  2

1.English Breeze

2.Magnetique

3.Classic Colors

#4 ENGLISH BREEZE can be completely forgiven the most recent, as that was definitely a prep for today after the 15+ month layoff. That being said, the respite is nothing to sneeze at, and while this one does have some back class, it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. Mild choice. #2 MAGNETIQUE has hit the board in all five starts since being transferred to the Nevin barn, and we like the improvement shown from his first start to the second. #8 CLASSIC COLORS hit the board in both turf tries before being sent to the shelf last year, and returns with the wonder drug and Aqueduct's leading rider.  OFF TURF 1-2-1A-3-4

 

Race  3

1.The Queens Jules

2.Somebody

3.Mister Winston

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 THE QUEENS JULES outran his odds when completing the triple in a restricted stakes at The Big A two fortnights back, and fell short by three parts of a length in his sole dirt attempt when breaking from the pine just prior to that. Papa Englehart is a snappy 16:8-2-4 with locally based Allowance dirt stock who were in the money 6-50 days back & are 7-1 or less ( positive ROI ). #2 SOMEBODY has been beset by a few layoff lines since last March, but his last quartet of outings have been his best ones to date, and we see no reason to exclude. #3 MISTER WINSTON ( scratched on Thursday for this ) was a lively runner up directly in front of a next out winner in his only spin on this oval, and pilot from that day is aboard once again. 

 

Race  4 

1.Publication

2.High Opinion

3.Stolen Holiday

#6 PUBLICATION hasn't been in action since Independence Day of last year, but grey gal has done some nice work thus far ( a showing at 34-1 as well as a smart score on the Widener ), and pre-layoff pilot is back again -- something we always dig. #1 HIGH OPINION positively blew up the toteboard in her last try off a break in the action ( $196 !! ) and you can fee free to draw an upwards arrow alongside her speed figs, as this one is seemingly getting better as she goes along. Recognize that the November result may actually be better than it appears, as four returnees rang up a cumulative 4:2-0-1-1 in their ( three different ) followup engagements. From a trainer stat perspective, 14% clan is 11:4-2-2-1 with turf stayers in the 67-247 day bracket ( 14-1 or less ) w/ payouts of $22, $5, $6 & $12. #3 STOLEN HOLIDAY completes our troika of selections coming off a bench, and we like how this one stepped up her game when facing winners for the first time last year. Bullet breeze at Payson Park a dozen days ago signals readiness.  OFF TURF: 1-6-3-4-2

 

Race  5

1.Runabout

2.Heavy Roller

3.I Love Jaxson

We have three tidy but tight sets of Formulator stats in play here, and let's give ourselves a mid card breather from creativity, and present them in a no frills manner.   #5 RUNABOUT: Morley a poyfect three fer three with second off the snag mid level dirt stock who were IYM less than 44 days in the rear ( $7, $4, & $9 ). #6 HEAVY ROLLER: Atras owns a 5 for 9 ledger with dirt runners at this level who tallied a win 34-50 days back & are 16-1 or undah ( positive return on investment ). #10 I LOVE JAXSON: 19% shedrow is 5:2-2-0 with Belmont based mid level dirt horsies who were 1-2-3 < 51 days in the past & are 27-1 or under. 

 

Race  6 

1.Iron Giant

2.Shaftesbury

3.Bail Out

#12 IRON GIANT bested more than half the field at 47-1 in the turf overture on the second of the month, and while the numero garnered that day is substantially less than the top four in here, keep in mind that it came over yielding ground, and the monstrous ( 368 turf Tommy ) tells us that there's plenty of upside here. Harkie to Rodriguez is the equivalent to having an anvil off your animal, and colt is showing a nice breeze last Saturday. Paternal granddam crashed the fiesta in both starts on the poly ( which we feel transfers over to the turf nicely ), and of course, having Giant's Causeway in the family tree can't hurt. #8 SHAFTESBURY has closed out the exacta in three straight, and who are we to rock that boat ? #10 BAIL OUT gets an appreciable trainer switch in this spot, and has four placings from as many starts off the pine; watch out, suckahs !!  OFF TURF: 2-1-4-6-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE ARE AMENDEING OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-8-6.

 

Race  7

1.Lookin at Bikinis

2.Mihos

3.Souper Stonehenge

#1 LOOKIN AT BIKINIS won his only Belmont start off a layoff in a game manner just shy of two years ago, and we like that it came from an "inside-sh" type slot, AND beneath Javy. This is a fairly salty bunch, but there's no Code of Honor of Maximum Security signed on, so we'll lean this way. #3 MIHOS comes in today off a snappy score and has found the line first in both second off the shelf engagements when going 1X over a glib surface. #4 SOUPER STONEHENGE has partaken in the superfecta in nine consecutive "non turf" jammies, and can land a share. 

 

Race  8 

1.Therapist

2.Value Proposition ( GB ) 

3.Front Run the Fed

#4 THERAPIST is 3 for 4 at the trip, 4 for 5 on the Widener, and 2 for 4 with Cancel, but what we're positively digging the most, is that C-Squared is 4 for 4 with ungraded sod sprinters on this course off hibernations of 68-228 days ( $8 x 2, $6 & $19 ). Oh yeah -- toss in a 3 for 6 mark off a L/O for the head. #1 VALUE PROPOSITION (GB) got his photograph taken in his only trip on this strip when returning off an absence, and it came underneath the guidance of Irad; logical. #6 FRONT RUN THE FED has a 4:2-2-0 boxscore off a sabbatical, and is but a neck shy of being four fer four right here. Another usable runner in an extremely competitive feature.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-2-5 

 

Race  9 

1.Me 'n Sap ( AE )

2.Ratchet

3.Unlikely ( AE )

#13 ME 'N SAP is on the outside looking in, but should he make it to the frontside this afternoon, would be bringing along a nice running line from his sole turf attempt, and some familiarity in doing it from an outside slot. #8 RATCHET tightened things up a bit when displaying his best speed to date last out, and given the decent initial foray, we'll give him some chance to improve off that effort. #14 UNLIKELY (AE) is another who needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but has an overall honest body of work on the gramma, and rates a puncher's chance.  OFF TURF: 10-5-6-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  6-17          ( $59.40 )   Beatable Favorites      1-1  ( 100% ) Favorites   Win %:     9-17       ( 52.9% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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