SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 4/25


Another sweet day for us here yesterday, as we had the following:

--A Grand Salami ( $22, $6 & $4 x 2 )

--A $13 Quinella Box & a $6 Cold Quinella

--A $27 Cold Triple & a $170 Triple Box

--Four Rolling Doubles of $91, $14, $17 & $23 & a Cold $73 Double

--Four Rolling Pick Threes of $306, $58, $229 & $46

--A Rolling Pick Four for $787

With four more favorites coming in, they are now on a 75 for 139 ( 54% ) run dating back to closing weekend of the winter meet. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #2 Thereisastormbrewin ( only if track stays fast )  Race 6: #2 Spungie

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 4/25


Race  1


2.Midsummer Nights

3.Proton Pack

#5 LANDSLID didn't do much to get the pulse racing when staring things out down in Lexington, but breaking slow from the wood at that tricky 4 1/2 furlong distance is never an easy thing to overcome, and the 362 Tomlinson figure tells us there's some room for improvement. Two year old has already surpassed her $1,000 purchase price just a stone's throw from the bow, and is guaranteed a few more fazools no matter what happens today. That being said, there are no world beaters signed on, and the rail horse will likely be overbet because of Ward and all, so why not take a shot at a price. #3 MIDSUMMER NIGHTS finished just in front of the above when they tangled down south, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today. #1 PROTON PACK will likely be odds on at first asking, and has no excuse with the big time pedigree, 210K auction price, and sizzling works.   NOTE: AS OF 10:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.First Line


3.Not That Brady

#5 FIRST LINE is a bit of a streaky sort ( 4 superfecta finishes...5 times out of the superfecta...3 superfecta finishes ), but drops in class off a decent showing this afternoon, and we're hoping upon hope that this one stays in his current form cycle -- at least for one more race. #4 SHANGHAISCHOOL has a nice 4:1-2-0 mark at the trip, and it's always good to see a lifetime 66.6666667% ITM rate, isn't it ?  #1 NOT THAT BRADY as bad as any for third in a "Go walk the marmot." kind of race.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We're not sure why #2 THEREISASTORMBREWIN is 2-1 ( 0-7 on a fast track, and we'll side against unless the track comes up wet.  NOTE: AS OF 10:57, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3


2.We Ready 

3.Determined Fury 

#5 MOONSHININGBRIGHT was smartly given a break in the action after getting demolished ( WITH Lasix for the first time, which is a bit bizarre ) around Super Bowl time, and Malibu Moon colt now takes the biggest drop in the game for Charlie. Rosario grabs the reins this afternoon, which is reason enough for us to spot him up top -- in a race with no first draft eliminations. #7 WE READY has lost by an average of 20+ lengths in four starts to date, and while there's a downgrade in the trainer change here, Parker has had some curiously successful results in the last couple'a years ( when comparing it to his career stats ), and some of that success has come with Luzzi. A toss in to spice things up. #1 DETERMINED FURY hasn't been in action since turkey time, and while this one figures on the speed figures alone, we're leaving below because we're not digging this drop by any stretch of the imagination. 


Race  4 

1.Up for Adventure


3.Being Me

#1 UP FOR ADVENTURE has completed the superfecta in both starts thus far, and as this one has been kept in jail since the the snag about six weeks back, is eligible to come back for the same quarter. Major jockey upgrade in play right here, and should sit a snug inside trip in today's one turn mile. #5 THEITALIANAMERICAN ( Dig it. ) is slowly approaching professional maiden territory, but has some back class and we "guess" we have to chunk in, but...  #3 BEING ME gets TREMENDOUS jockey improvement in this spot ( Harkie to Carmouche ?? Anchors away !!! ), and closed out the tri at nearly 100-1 in his only "3rd off the L/O engagement". 


Race  5


2.Win With Pride

3.Summer Bourbon

#2 SHAMROCKED has been kept in prison since being purchased on March 13th, and is astutely dropped in class by owner/trainer Broberg for the turn. As he assumes all of the expenses himself, even a placing & a claim has him just about break even, but given this one's stellar "declining" mark in Elmont ( 8:4-2-1 ), a win is quite feasible. Nice DRF Formulator stat in play here, as aforementioned shotcaller is 7 for 17 with freshly claimed runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 36-50 days back ( Positive ROI ). #8 WIN WITH PRIDE can be forgiven the most recent when losing his footing at the onset, but gelding loves this oval ( three for five ) and runner had a couple'a solid effort just prior to the flop. #3 SUMMER BOURBON had gone back to back before returning off a brief respite to finish 4th in the Kelly Kip. Chestnut chap loves this trip and deserves another shot.   NOTE: AS OF 11:01, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Just Ok Is Not Okay

2.Masterof the Tunes

3.Dixie Kitten

Wide, wide open event here, so be careful...  #5 JUST OKAY IS NOT OKAY was decently backed in the Hallandale Bow, but showed little speed when breaking from the inside, and we're thinking that race was used as a prep for today. Why ? Well, why go all out for 45K when you can give the horse some experience and a better shot at 75K ? Pletcher rarely has horses get embarrassed twice in a row, and if he felt this one was without talent, he'd spot her for a tag. #4 MASTEROF THE TUNES posted an adjusted 70.2 in her sole turf attempt, but you can upgrade that a bit, given the "Troubled trip; Boxed in" comment. Demand some value, tho. #8 DIXIE KITTEN is the first foal out of a winless dam, but you have the whole Kitten's Joy family tree on one side, and Blame ( 3:2-0-1 on the poly ) and Tally Ho Dixie ( 3:1-0-1 on the turf ) on the other. Hmmmm.  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-1-10  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SPUNGIE fills the bill, as Mott is 1-10 in all relevant categories.  NOTE: AS OF 11:05, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-11(AE)-13(AE) 


Race  7

1.Steal My Heart

2.Summer Brew 


#2 STEAL MY HEART was a gamely, well beaten, and well clear runner up in this race last time out, so why is she 10-1 today? We're not sure, but we'll bite -- especially seeing that Matties has won with two of six dirt runners who were ITM 34-50 days back within this odds range ( 1-1 sub category w/ allowance stock ). #4 SUMMER BREW procured the sheepskin in smart fashion on 3/20, and we're betting the light bulb stays on for this Abreu charge. #1 PENDOLINO outran her odds in a big way when completing the exacta at 50-1 last out, and as this one is historically 5% better on a fast track than a wet one, you can feel free to upgrade that performance accordingly.  NOTE: AS OF 11:09, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-9-1.


Race  8 

1.Iced Latte


3.Midnight Obsession

#5 ICED LATTE ( see our analysis of the Pletcher runner earlier ) rebounded in a big way after the disappointing bow, grabbing the sheepskin at Gulfstream in a drawing away manner. When it comes to his optional dirt sprinters who got their first tally 34-50 days in the rear, T.P. wipes the competition clean, as he's 7 for 16 with that type ( positive return on investment ). #4 TEETOTALER shoots for the hat trick in this spot, and it's completely doable, given the HUGE step forward in the BSF dept. with his second straight win 36 days ago ( a race in which Manny dropped the stick ). #3 MIDNIGHT OBSESSION is confidently shipped in after the snappy maiden breaking effort at PHA , but gal may have outran her pedigree a bit that day, so we'll leave beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9 

1.Traffic Lane

2.Freddymo Factor

3.Love Me Tomorrow

#5 TRAFFIC LANE drops for the third straight time as Pletcher runs up the white flag. Your move. #9 FREDDYMO FACTOR duked it out pretty good when last facing the starter in G.P., but got nabbed late in the game at a level a bit lower than this. We'll leave this nibbler by nature in the "unders". #6 LOVE ME TOMORROW appears to be the controlling speed of this deal, but has a tendency to hang, as the 20:1-7-7 record belies.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-1   NOTE: AS OF 11:17, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELELCTIONS TO 7-6-8.

Belmont            ( Current ):  10-26        ( $95.70 )   Beatable Favorites      2-2  ( 100% ) Favorites   Win %:     13-26     ( 50% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout