SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 4/30
  
  

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For our complete selections & analysis of the Grade 1's La Troienne & Kentucky Oaks from Churchill Downs, merely go back one page. 

Favorites are now clicking at 50% for the meet, and 84 for 157 ( 53.5% ) since closing weekend of the winter meet.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #5 Rocketry  Race 8 - #8 Minaun


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 4/30

 

Race  1

1.Charlotte Webley

2.Remoane

3.Gilda Marie

#5 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY gave her backers a thrill for their two dollar bill when leading on the spin for home at 102-1, but gave up the ghost late in the game when being passed by seven others. What we really dug about that effort is that she outran her 231 turf Tomlinson figure ( by a lot ), and when that happens, you can feel free to prorate that to a horse's best Beyer at today's trip ( which we did ), & in this case, we came up with a 51.2 (adj.), which fits well here. Jockey upgrade in play, and we have a Michael Simmonds DRF Formulator stat in play here !! Over the last 60 months, this 6% shotcaller is a robust 4-17 w/ NYRA based mid level dirt fillies off breaks of two dozen days or less & 35-1 or lower, and just look at these payouts -- $69, $14, $50 & $14 !! #2 REMOANE didn't do squat in a near identical spot last time out, but we're assuaged by the fact that 'Miah is a tight 5:2-3-0 with freshly purchased mid level dirt equines off L/O's of 51-59 days ( $9 & $15 ). #1 GILDA MARIE has been beset by some layoff lines, but owns a win & a showing in two of 'em, and Papa Englehart has a tidy 2 for 5 ledger with Elmont based runners of this ilk off hiatuses ( thanks to Cotty & Mike on Twitter for the correct spelling ! ) of 51-211 days dropping 50% or more @ 40-1 or under ( $7 & $14 ).   NOTE: AS OF 11:28, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Blindwillie McTell

2.Big Mountain

3.Runaway Lute

#8 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL has a propensity for spending some time on the DL,  but found the line first in his only spin on Big Sandy, is 3:1-1-1 at the dx., and has never been entered this cheaply. Mild choice. #10 BIG MOUNTAIN is but three parts of a length when in "true" second off the break scenarios, and sheds a whopping eight pounds off a solid performance. BIG shot. #1 RUNAWAY LUTE has won four of eight right here, and what the hell's wrong with that ?  NOTE: AS OF 10:53 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

 

 

Race  3

1.Air Attack

2.Musical Heart

3.Rocketry

The top two should suffice for all our rolling action in what should be a very competitive stretch duel.  #7 AIR ATTACK has already proven to be a sweet claim by Toscano, as shotcaller is on the positive side of the ledger by about 50% after snagging this one for a quarter two back. Repeat stakes win well within reach here, and note that this one is two of three when last to load. #4 MUSICAL HEART has burned a ton of bread since last June, but gets an eight pound break in the weight assignments after getting caught by the above last out, and may forget to stop if able to set some easy splits. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #5 ROCKETRY is a game ol' chap, as seven year old "horse" ( You tell them to leave your rocket boosters alone, buddy ! ) always seems to give a good account of himself. We see no reason this one can't grab another check here.  

 

Race  4 

1.Eight Weeks Long ( AE )

2.Rally Squirrel

3.King Moonracer

We have three sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play here, and lets get to 'em in a no frills manner, as we still have to do some Derby Day coverage tonight.  #14 EIGHT WEEKS LONG (AE) needs some luck in order to make it into the body of the body of the race, but should that come to fruition, would be backed by an exceptional trainer statistic. Over the last five years, Hennig is on the Mark with his Belmont based maiden claiming turf stayers in the 1-53 day bracket ( 45-1 or undah ), as he's 5:4-0-1 in that regards, w/payouts of $9, $8, $7 & $5. #9 RALLY SQUIRREL: Over the same timeframe listed above, Morley has won with half of his six turf firsters at this level going long, and the returns were fruitful ( $76, $19 & $32 ). #8 KING MOONRACER will be led over by an hombre who ( from a small survey ) is 2 of 5 with first time turfers/first time routers who missed the money 25-57 days in the rear ( $6 & $7 ).  OFF TURF: 7-5-4-2-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Race  5

1.Kinky Sox

2.Holmdel Park

3.Out First

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly... #6 KINKY SOX has bested only four in her last three trips to the track, but those were all sand starts, and this one has proven to be a bit better on the gramma of late. Lightly raced seven year old mare has done okay when switching from brown to green, and is two for four off a break in the action ( 1-17 otherwise ). Price play. #4 HOLMDEL PARK is confidently hiked in class despite having been kept in jail after the March 21st purchase, and trainer enlists the services of one of his Finger Lakes regulars ( 32% in tandem ). #7 OUT FIRST has been a part of the superfecta in each and every start and is better bred for the verde than the main; logical contendress.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-1

 

 

Race  6 

1.Call Fitz

2.Tellaperfecttale

3.Vivazano

These three and no more for all our plays.  #3 CALL FITZ has a nicely hidden bullet breeze on the docket for today's overture, and obviously has a top flight sire, and the dam was no slouch herself ( "Don't sell yourself short, judge...". But wait --- there's more ! Over the last 1,826 days, Abreu is a sublime 13:8-3-1 with dirt firsters @ this level going off below 12-1$7 x 3, $10, $14 & $12. Play of the day ! ( Which is rare for us with a FTS'er ). #7 TELLAPERFECTTALE lost the pilot in a race that you can most definitely draw a line through on 3/20, and rates a chance if able to get back to either of the two prior tries. #8 VIVAZANO may have needed the comebacker and has a decent overall body of work showing from last year. 

 

 

 

Race  7

1.Creed

2.Highest Honors 

3.Musical America

#2 CREED lacked that finishing punch when returning off an elongated absence nearly two months ago, and was promptly given another brief freshening by Shug. Deserves another shot, fo sho, but is likely to be a tad overbet given the two tallies last year. Use, but don't cash in those IRA's. #8 HIGHEST HONORS hasn't made it to the frontside in the afternoon in a couple'a Halloweens, but homebred was doing some nice work before getting trounced by Honor Code in the Travers, and is a majah playah if sound & fully cranked up. #3 MUSICAL AMERICA was a sharp runner up vs. slightly weaker a touch over a month back and possesses a crisp 4:1-2-1 ledger in 3rd off the respite jammies. 

 

Race  8 

1.Rivendell

2.Madera

3.Lexinator

#1 RIVENDELL weakened late in the game when coming back off a 7+ month hibernation, but was a snazzy winner the only time her tootsies touched the Widener, and is a meek selection in an affair that's difficult to hug. #2 MADERA has been claimed in four of six career starts, and with good reason, as this one has yet to finish out of the money. Gal is decently bred for the blades and we always dig when they drop some weight after a win. #4 LEXINATOR has a modicum of back class and may come along for a piece.  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-2-8-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 10:57 THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 MINAUN (IRE)

 

Race  9 

1.Caravel

2.Lady Lawyer

3.I'llhandalthecash

#10 CARAVEL ( Nooooo, silly -- not Carvel, but we did put in a "Cookie O'Puss" commercial here for all you nostalgics. ) hasn't been in action since last fall, but has shown improvement with each passing turf foray, has lost but once in five trips to the track, and 14% barn is 18:5-3-0 with turf sprinters in the 68-308 day zip code ( 31-1 or beneath ), with mutuels of $4, $6, $26, $11 & $17. #3 LADY LAWYER has a pair of runner up finishes off L/O's, and who are we to rock that boat ?  #1 I'LLHANDALTHECASH was taken away from the trainer that she was named after ( Yikes ) after last seen, and has won 1 of three after being laid up.  OFF TURF:11-10-6-1-9

 

 


Belmont            ( Current ):  11-44        ( $95.70 )   Beatable Favorites      2-3 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     22-44     ( 50% )( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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