SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 5/2


Took it on the chin yesterday, as favorites are now clicking at a 92 for 178 rate ( 51.7% ) since closing weekend of the Aqueduct winter meet.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 Soglio

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/2


Race  1


2.Maker entry

3.Turn of Events

We start out the closing day to the week with a troika of DRF Formulator statistics, so let's get right to 'em.  #8 BORU is a model of consistency, as this one has hit the board in nine straight going back nearly two years. Gelding owns a couple of placings in "2nd off the layoff" attempts, and from an itty bitty sampling, Cerin is 2 for 5 with mid level turf stayers of this ilk who were in the money 17-67 days back & are 8-1 or less, as he's 11:5-3-1 in that regards ( $10 x 2, #12, $5 & $7 ). Both the #1 THE LAST ZIP ( barn 31-84 with mid level male turf stayers who were in the money less than 34 days back beneath the 7-1 watermark) -- $2.32 ROI -- & the #1A RHYTHM SECTION ( barn 3 for 8 with Elmont turf routers at this level who were off the board < 34 days back ) comprise a solid Mike Maker entry. #9 TURN OF EVENTS will be led over by a shotcallet who's 2-5 with turf routers at this level who missed the board 41-67 days ago ( $4 & $11 ).  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 10:57, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Ny Traffic

2.Control Group

3.Bears Mafia

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #3 NY TRAFFIC hasn't been seen since flopping in the first two legs of last year's Triple Crown, but colt owns a win & a placing from as many "true" starts off the pine, and shedrow is a near perfect 6 of 7 with optional dirt stock off sabbaticals of 52-278 days ( less than 2-1 ). #4 CONTROL GROUP was up in time to best what we would consider to be a slightly tougher allotment five weeks back, but is back in for a tag by Potts, who is playing with house money here. Getting some mixed signals on #1 BEARS MAFIA who won six vanned off...won off the bench...then finished next to last. Your move.   NOTE: AS OF 11:01, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3

1.King of Miami

2.Deregulation ( GB )

3.Lemon Drop Road

#2 KING OF MIAMI hasn't faced the starter since finishing fourth up at the Spa last August, but gets an "Around the World" treatment today ( Blinkers, Lasix & is freshly gelded ), and pre-layoff pilot comes back, which is something we always dig; tries a turf sprint today, which is Ward's forte'. #9 DEREGULATION (GB) begins his professional working life today, and the 359 turf Tomlinson ( as well as a crisp gate move ) tell us that today's trip is doable. #3 LEMON DROP ROAD overcame some trouble to move forward in a big way last time out, and while that might have been attributed to getting juice for the 1st time, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 9-3-7-4-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:05, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-9-3.  NOTE: THERE WAS NO KEY LATE SCRATCH SO OUR ORIGINAL SELECTIONS STAND.


Race  4 

1.King of Spades



#1 KING OF SPADES is quite the warhorse, as this one makes his 65th start today, and although he's been out of form in the last two, we like how he has a 2 for 2 mark on the turf when loading first, compared to a 7 for 54 mark otherwise. Juarez heating up with a couple of longshot winners in the first two days this week. #6 MANDATE returned off an elongated absence to best starter allowance foes in smart fashion in Ozone Park on the 9th of April, and as this one has been a part of the exacta in four straight, we're curious as to why this one's available for purchase. Using, but with a touch of trepidation. #3 NUTZFORBOLTZ rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 6-1-8(MTO)-3-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 SOGLIO fills the bill, as Steve Klesaris is oh-fer-17 with mid level turf stayers at this level off breaks of 33-67 days.


Race  5

1.Clear Humor


3.Nemo's Fortune

#4 CLEAR HUMOR has a couple of nice works on the docket for today's career starter, went for $235,000 in 'Toga a couple'a years back, owns a 400 Tommy for today's dx., and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 1,826 days, Weaver is a dreamy 5 for 11 with Elmont based maiden special weight firsters at 25-1 or less ( $23, $12, $9, $7 & $4 ). #12 HEREBY went for more than the stud fee at the same auction listed above, and draws nicely for today's bow. When it comes to his NYB Belmont dirt runners at this level starting things out, C-Squared happens to be 10:3-1-3 with mutuels of $27, $34 & $8. #2 NEMO'S FORTUNE was moved up to 2nd after a lively showing at The Big A @ 11-1 first time out, and the decent pedigree tells us the result was likely not an aberration. 


Race  6 


2.Tolaga Bay 

3.Blue Lou Boyle ( Ire )

#1 BRAZILLIONAIRE went for 1/8th less than a million clams at Keeneland about two and a half years back, and after being offered of 50 large two starts back, was plunked for $40,000 out of a diploma earning effort last month, and is decently spotted in his first try vs. winners. Slight edge. #3 TOLAGA BAY has been away for quite some time, but 5YO posted a career best performance when last in action down in Maryland, nestled in between two next out winners -- one of them, the game Largent, who placed in the Pegasus World Cup Turf. Obvious factor if fully cranked up. #10 BLUE LOU BOYLE (IRE) ( a character from "True Romance" ) will likely be sent to the top by Joel in this 3rd off the L/O spin, and as he's always dangerous when "Walking the dog", we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 10-3-2-4-1


Race  7


2.Public Sector ( GB )

3.Mira Mission

We're not really feeling the heat off this race, so tread lightly.  #3 GUILLAUME went from zero to hero at first asking down in Virginia approximately nine months in the rear, and the pedigree is just as goof for the green as the brown, so with the string of bullets in tow -- we'll afford him a chance to repeat at a big number. #7 PUBLIC SECTOR (GB) hasn't been in action since getting destroyed in the Breeders' Cup, but quite often, a race like that can take some starch out of a freshman, and barn not known for running many short animals, so we'll give this one a shot. #4 MIRA MISSION has improved with each passing start, and that includes a win in his first start against victors. That came with the addition of Lasix, so we'll leave in the "unders".  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-10


Race  8 

1.Saguaro Row



Featured race of the day is upon us, and as Ruffian is one of -- if not THE greatest filly of all time, we're saddened to see this at the Grade Two level, as it should always be a G1. That being said, here's some video of Ruffian winning the Acorn nearly 36 years ago to the day . #5 SAGUARO ROW has a solid overall body of work, which includes a win in her lone visit to this zip code, a showing in her only "second off the L/O" try ( beneath today's jock ), & a snappy 5:3-2-0 ledger when breaking from the outermost two slots. You can do a lot worse with your 15-1 shots. #6 GIBBERISH was denied an elongated grand slam in the Royal Delta, but has been working well since, and found the line first in her other try off the bench. #1 VAULT fell short by just half'a length the one time she went from 2X to 1X and is a neck shy of being two fer two when breaking from the inside ( when the jockey stayed aboard ). Mare sheds a whopping six pounds off a tally -- which is something we always dig. 


Race  9 

1.Kentucky Knight ( AE )


3.Count Down

#13 KENTUCKY KNIGHT (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that happen, will be bringing along three ( or four ) smart running lines on the gramma, as well as a rider who's getting out of his slump a bit. #7 ORDERS is fantastically bred for this sorta deal, and while the barn is on fire at the stand, we're feeling a bit wonky about this one being up for grabs right away. #4 COUNT DOWN has oodles of speed and can land a share.  OFF TURF: 2-1-7-8-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:09, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-7-4.


Belmont            ( Current ):  11-64        ( $95.70 )   Beatable Favorites      4-6 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     29-64     ( 45.3% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     9-22      ( 40.9% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout