SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 5/9


Took it on the chin yesterday, & with five favorites coming in, they are now on a 104 for 216 run ( 48.2% ) since the closing weekend of the winter meet. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/9


Race  1


2.Riot House

3.Bueno Bueno

#2 LUCCI ( by "Not This Time", ya get it ? ) is a $40,000 bred animal who went for more than 7X that amount at Keeneland last year, and in typical Ward fashion, has been working extremely well for the initial trip to the track. Pedigree for this trip is positively through the roof, and first foal to race out of a dam who won her only start, has a maternal grandsire who was a snappy 7:5-1-1 on the synthetic ( which we feel translates well to the gramma ( earning $1.3 million in the process ). Toss in some Giant's Causeway on the topside and you have the makings of a solid debuter. #8 RIOT HOUSE ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) has a couple of snappy morning moves and draws well. #3 BUENO BUENO completes our troika of runners with an exceptional worktab and would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 2-5-6-7-1(MTO)


Race  2

1.Tuff Bird

2.Lottie's Mizzion

3.Left Leaning Lucy

These three and no more for all our rolling action...   #7 TUFF BIRD gave up the ghost rather readily last time out, but historically speaking, this one isn't a fan of the goo, and it's encouraging to see Carmouche return for today's drop down to her lowest level yet. Four year old has a nice 4:1-1-1 mark at today's distance of ground, and expecting the pilot to employ the "Killer Crossover" from today's outside slot. #3 LOTTIE'S MIZZION was a sharp runner up in a near identical spot a month back, and Rosario ( off to a sizzling start here ) grabs the reins for the first time. #5 LEFT LEANING LUCY overcame a bit of trouble to complete the exacta in this race at the end of March, and switches from an apprentice to Manny Man here. 


Race  3


2.Daria's Angel

3.Flat Awesome Jenny

#3 CARTRWHEEL hasn't been in action since going coast to coast versus state bred foes in Ozone Park five months in the rear, but mare has shown steady improvement in her recent quartet of works leading up to today, and her best work has come at today's distance. #6 DARIA'S ANGEL went all the way at a level just beneath this one on the 17th of April, and given that this one is about 9.1% better on a glib surface than a wet one, we're seeing an opportunity for some improvement this afternoon. #5 FLAT AWESOME JENNY has been a part of the superfecta in four straight, and takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged for 20K on the 16th of April, and is sensible off that placing. 


Race  4 

1.Poppy Flower

2.Bella Prima

3.Constitution Gal

Another heat where our written selections should suffice. #4 POPPY FLOWER was taken six wide in a five horse field first time out ( NURSE !! ), but still came along decently to complete the exacta on the main. Filly is better bred for the green than the brown, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #6 BELLA PRIMA begins her professional working life in this spot, and although there are several question marks regarding the bloodlines, we'll chunk in because of the quick A.M. moves. #7 CONSTITUTION GAL is a January foal holding a bit of a maturity edge over the rest of this bunch, and 334 Tommy for the verde works fine here -- as does being last to load.  OFF TURF: 2-4-1-5-7 


Race  5



3.Lady Fatima

#7 SABURAI is the most consistent turf performer in the allotment, and although there's nothing that pops off the page with this one -- there's less that pops off the page with the other's signed on, so it's merely a matter of attrition. #4 MOPOLKA has gone 52-62-69-69-75 with her quintet of turf forays thus far, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Layoff a question mark, but they'll likely have have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #5 LADY FATIMA hung up an adj. 80.5 the last time she placed her little tootsies on this course and gets an underrated jock for her return to the Big Apple.  OFF TURF: 2-3-5-7-1


Race  6 

1.Winners Laugh

2.Brilliant Brooks

3.Kaz's Beach

Still yet another heat where we're confident in our triad of picks.  #3 WINNERS LAUGH flopped when being tossed into the deep end of the pool in his first tango with winners, but hit the gate for the second straight time that day, and can make amends at a more palatable level with a cleaner onset. #4 BRILLIANT BROOKS has yet to finish out of the superfecta & is completely logical vs. these. #7 KAZ'S BEACH got smacked around pretty good when going long on the lawn 23 days back, but is reunited with a pilot who he's had some success beneath, and may be a bit of an overlay here. 


Race  7


2.Identity Politics

3.Sanctuary City

#2 BODECREAM was a gamely runner up when tangling w/ similar type at Aqueduct a month ago, and gelding with a modicum of back class owns a placing & a showing in his only "third off the layoff" affairs. Over the last 60 months, Maker is a snappy 5 of 9 with optional turf stayers who crashed the fiesta less than 60 days back that are 6-1 or undah ( ridden by Saez ). Sold fave. #9 IDENTITY POLITICS is a fairly consistent sort who's been a part of the super in all three turf tries to date, and that includes one off the bench beneath I. Ortiz. #1 SANCTUARY CITY is confidently spotted one level above where he should be today ( sometimes you're at the mercy of the condition book as well ), but has turned into a really nice animal since being switched over to Jimmy Ferraro, and should give a good account of himself here.  OFF TURF: 4-1-9-6-3


Race  8 

1.American Gentleman


3.Candy Man Rocket

#5 AMERICAN GENTLEMAN displayed very little in the firs four starts to his career, but has turned things around in a big way of late, filling out each of the triple slots in his last three treks to the frontside. Best jock to date gets legged up today, and we this one finds a relative soft spot for his first try against stakes foes. #1 BEREN had gone up, up, up, up, up the Beyer speed figure ladder over the first half dozen start to his career, but that all went by the wayside when he was "a'stumblin and a'bumblin" in the Bay Shore, in finishing fourth. Breaks from the inside today and deserves another shot. #7 CANDY MAN ROCKET gave the Derby Trail a shot after winning the Sam Davis down in Oldsmar, but got annihilated in both folllowups to that tally, and is promptly cut back to one turn by Mott in an effort to get some confidence back.  


Race  9 

1.Handle the Truth


3.Uncle's Gem ( AE )

#9 HANDLE THE TRUTH ( "Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? YOU, Lt. Weinberg??" Poor Weinberg, just sitting there minding his own business. ) doesn't have much turf pedigree, but to her credit has been a part of the super in four of her last six starts ( all at double digit odds ), and goes from Harkie to Diaz here, which is like getting wheelbarrow full of bricks off your back. Note that this one is a half to a pair of turfers that have rung up six wins on the stuff, banking nearly 200 large along the way. #8 SHAMALAMADINGDONG ( Sure, we'll toss in some "Otis Day & the Knights" here ) was a wide & daylight beaten runner up at first asking, and while the turf pedigree is a touch light, we'd be remiss in excluding. #14 UNCLE'S GEM (AE) ( uncoupled entrymate with our second choice ) needs a pair to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but should that happen, would be toting along some nice bloodlines for today's trip as well as the meet's leading rider.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-8  NOTE: THE #13 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION, AND OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-8-13, NOT 11-8-13 AS ERRONEOUSLY PUT ON TWITTER EARLIER.



Belmont            ( Current ):  15-102     ( $128.70 )  Beatable Favorites      4-6 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     41-102   ( 40.2% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     9-22      ( 40.9% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout