SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 5/30
  
  

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What a mess of a day yesterday. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/30

 

Race  1

1.Sky Kitten

2.Awesome Indra

3.Extra Effort

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 SKY KITTEN has been in the back point in her last half dozen trips to the track, but we think there may be some hidden value for a runner who lost by only a half in her only start at this level. The adjusted speed figure for that race was her best over a wet track to date, and if you were to prorate it to her best start over a glib surface, what you come up with is a number putting her in the top tier in this spot. We want you to recognize the three superfecta finishes when going 2X to 1X & T to D as well as the fact that Randi wonm teh only time he entered that type of animal at this level off breaks of less than three fortnights ( 23-1 or less ) with said winner paying $41. The more we type...  #2 AWESOME INDRA has been kept in jail since being claimed at Oaklawn on the 9th of April, and is now dropped 30% in class while securing the meets' leading rider. #4 EXTRA EFFORT is another sliding down the ladder off the snag, and makes all kinds of sense.  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.The Great Dansky

2.Summer Bourbon

3.No Lime

#8 THE GREAT DANSKY has always been a popular item at the claim box, having changed addresses a whopping SEVEN times in just eight eligible races. Big shot if able to get back to the penultimate effort, but was cross entered yesterday, so check the changes. #5 SUMMER BOURBON has been ghastly in his last duet, but eight year old warhorse has a snappy 28:8-3-2 going today's distance of ground, and we'll give him one more chance. #4 NO LIME found the line first the last time he was made afailable for purchase and goes two turns to one for the 1st time this afternoon. 

 

Race  3

1.Amendment Nineteen

2.School of Thought

3.Tekila

We're casting our vote for #3 AMENDMENT NINETEEN who should annihilate this field for Linda Rice, who recently had her license revoked by the New York State Gaming Commission for no less than three years. #5 SCHOOL OF THOUGHT hasn't been seen since running a somewhat disappointing third at The Spa, but pre layoff pilot returns ( which we always dig, as it tells us that nothing untoward happened that day ), and aside from the healthy 398 Tomlinson telling us to give this one a chance to make amends, we see that the wonder drug is administered for the first time. #6 TEKILA had backers tearing their clothes off when getting set down after an apparent score back in March, and can land a minor share here if fully cranked up. 

 

Race  4 

1.My Sacred Place

2.Millean

3.Super Silver

#4 MY SACRED PLACE ( scratched as an Also Eligible on Friday ) hasn't been in action in just under eleven months, and new conditioner gives this one the "Chop and Drop" for today's return to action, and Manny Man ( who guided this one to a couple of ITM finishes ) gets the assignment. Mild choice. #5 MILLEAN is dropped below the price claimed from two back for today's third try off the break, and blinks are now left back in the tack room after a failed experiment. #2 SUPER SILVER hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but chronic nibbler has hit the board in for of five at this dx., but it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock given the hibernation.  NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Obsessed

2.Parade Field

3.First Line 

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #11 OBSESSED was up the track in his first start off the claim by Morley, but we like the speed shown in the lone turf try, and as that was over a course labeled as "good", we'll take a swing here for this one's secondary sod engagement. #12 PARADE FIELD has been in the money in four straight, and as this one has historically been a bit better on the green than the brown, we're foreseeing another solid effort in this spot. #1 FIRST LINE is in real good form these days, and it's encouraging to see Maker keep this one protected against the claim after being bought a tad more than a month back.  OFF TURF: 12-3(MTO)-4-5-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:38, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-5-1/1A.

 

Race  6 

1.Sinashack

2.Enroule

3.Tiz Envy

#8 SINASHACK was claimed for the second straight time on 4/16, and for the second straight time, was kept in prison to be eligible for the same price right back. According to DRF Formulator, over the last 1,826 days, Vasquez is a near poyfect 5 fer 6 with first off the claim dirt stock who missed the board 38-50 days back & are 12-1 or undah ( any claimer ). The winners came back $7 x 2, $8 & $14, and there's a sub category of 2-2 w/those who finished out of the money when last seen. #1 ENROULE is back on the main track today after failing on the gramma, and gets a jock upgrade while having Lasix added for today's drop in class. #7 TIZ ENVY rounds out the top three. NOTE: AS OF 11:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 2:44, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-7-6. 

 

Race  7

1.Basha

2.Malthael

3.Burning Bright

#7 BASHA is a nibblah by rote, as the 37:3-6-7 mark belies, but we like the aggressive placement by the barn here, and that they get some improvement in the saddle as well. Meeeeeeeeekest of selections in a "Magic 8 Ball" kinda race. #8 MALTHAEL has been a part of the action in both "3rd off the L/O" engagements and has done the same in both partnerships with Junior at the helm ( one of those races overlapped ). Could spice things up at a price. #9 BURNING BRIGHT has improved with each passing start, and we like that it's occurred at increasing class levels. gelding got his photo taken the only time he returned off a respite, and despite the initial turf flop, we see more than enough reason to use.  OFF TURF: 1-7-5-2(MTO)-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-9-10.

 

Race  8 

1.Three Two Zone

2.Second of July

3.Fauci

#5 THREE TWO ZONE got smacked around a bit at the onset of the Pat Day Mile, and as this one seems to be a "Need the lead" type, we can see a better result with a smarter onset today. Toss into the mix that this fella is substantially better bred for the green than the brown, we wouldn't be shocked to see this one surprise at a big #. #7 SECOND OF JULY hasn't been seen since getting destroyed in the Breeders' Cup, but draws well & owns a win over the course; obvious factor if cranked up. #2 FAUCI has yet to finish out of the exacta, but that's not enough for the connections, who have removed this one from the Ward barn. Leaving beneath as Javy is still below the 10% mark for the meet.  OFF TURF: 2-1-7-6-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-5-1.

 

Race  9 

1.Ob La Di

2.Roxen

3.Tiny Magoo 

#4 OB LA DI showed precipitous from her first fast track dirt start to the second ( 37-52 ) and should be on the choo choo from the time they spring the latches; big shot for Double D, who's having a nice year thus far, with limited starters. #5 ROXEN came along decently to outrun her 48-1 offering at first asking, and may move up a bit off that. #11 TINY MAGOO rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 11:54, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-1-3.


Belmont            ( Current ):  30-204     ( $231.90 )  Beatable Favorites     5-13 ( 38.5% ) Favorites   Win %:    82-204  ( 38.7% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     9-22      ( 40.9% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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