SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 5/31 - Happy Memorial Day - God bless our fallen heroes
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's troika of Grade One analysis from Santa Anita Park, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/31 - Happy Memorial Day - God bless our fallen heroes

 

Race  1

1.Big Bobby

2.Mr. Buckley

3.Blitz to Win

#8 BIG BOBBY got snacked around a bit at the onset to his working life on the second of the month, but overcame it to finish a well clear runner up while posting a big figaro in the process. Three returnees ( who had finished in the back of the pack that day came back to close the triple next out, improving by an average of seven points in the process. When it comes to his maiden special weight second timers at this level who finished ITM < 51 days back ( on the dirt ) @ 3-1 or less, Mott is a saucy 11 for 17 with a positive ROI. #2 MR. BUCKLEY is immediately switched back to the dirt after the turf fiasco, and barn is 2-6 when doing such to their sprinters ( 42-50 days ). #3 BLITZ TO WIN finished a couple of positions behind Bobby last out, but is eligible to improve in today's 2nd off the L/O engagement.  NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  2

1.Nebo

2.My Alluring Lady

3.Infringement

#7 NEBO clearly found the turf to her liking when procuring the sheepskin after a two length win on the Widener on April 22nd, and given the wide trip that day ( and a bit of post improvement here ) we wouldn't be surprised to see another solid effort. Mild choice in a wide open affair. #10 MY ALLURING LADY was in the rear withe the gear when last in action, and gets the blinkers affixed for today's first try on the gramma. Note that the lone tally came after a break in the action, and it's always encouraging to see a pre layoff pilot come back. #9 INFRINGEMENT hasn't been in action since Christmas time ( after having beaten home only one in her last troika, but is better bred for the green than the brown, and is in receipt of the miracle drug for the 1st time.  OFF TURF: 4-1-5-2-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:21, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-4-13(MTO).

 

Race  3

1.Rainbow Gal

2.Secret Love

3.Beach Banker

#6 RAINBOW GAL has been in the money in three straight, draws ideally, and secures Saez, who appears to be getting out of his lump. Timid selection in a tight stakes. #5 SECRET LOVE owns a win & a placing from as many starts over a glib surface, with said tally having come right here in Elmont -- with Johnny V. in the saddle as well. #2 BEACH BANKER is a poyfect two for two in "true" starts off a break in the action, and regular pilot comes in for the ride. 

 

Race  4 

1.Mr. Buff

2.Yankee Division

3.Captain Bombastic

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #3 MR. BUFF is the male version of "My Roxy Girl", in such that this New Yorker -- bred for a mere $1,000 -- has earned nearly $1.4 Million to date, in winning a bevy of stakes. When it comes to his male dirt runners who crashed the fiesta 10-50 days back < 4-1 ( 3YO & up ), Kimmel is perfection, clicking at an 8 for 8 rate ( all with this fella ). Looking good. #4 YANKEE DIVISION ( scratched because of a wet track on Saturday ) often gives a good account of himself, and owns a five fer nine mark at today's distance of ground, compared to being 0-8 otherwise. #1 CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC has been less than "Fahn-tastic" over his last triad, but digs it here, and we'll chunk him in at 10-1.  NOTE: AS OF 11:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Jamaica Joy

2.Princess Sonya

3.Dorothy's the Boss

#4 JAMAICA JOY has switched bans since the decent showing first time out, and new bossman is a tight 6:3-1-2 when getting a dirt dasher and bringing them back off a break of more than 57 days ( $18, $7 & $12 ). Resurgent Looie gets the call. #9 PRINCESS SONYA makes her first afternoon trek to the frontside today, and totes along some very nice breezes for the debut ( two of them from the gate ). This could very well be one of the last firsters we see out of Effinex, who passed away 3 1/2 years ago, and Manny Man hops on. #5 DOROTHY'S THE BOSS has yet to finish out of the super and gets a bit of improvement in the saddle here. 

 

Race  6 

1.Dancingwthdaffodls

2.Kilkea

3.Pecatonica

We don't have the best of reads on this heat, so tread lightly.   #1 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS has done some decent work on this course and is one for four on the verde when loading first. Will need some pace ahead of her, as frigid pilot hopes to work out a pocket trip. #4 KILKEA closed out the exacta at this trip & over this strip the only time she was in a second off the L/O deal, and is reunited with Junior today, who guided her to her last victory. #9 PECATONICA was dead game in going all the way right here on the 7th of the month, and five year old mare was a smart $25 victress in her sole "second start off a break" scenario as well. Not hopeless.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:29, THE #7 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Dr. Blute

2.Excellent Timing

3.River Dog

Another race where our listed picks should be enough...   #1 DR. BLUTE has proven to be a versatile sort thus far in his abbreviated career, owning a win on the dirt and a placing on the turf, & switches back to the former for today's initial stakes foray. When it comes to his ungraded dirt equines who were 1-2-3 38 to 50 days in the rear, 14% shedrow owns a crisp three for five ledger ( $7, $5 & $3 ). #3 EXCELLENT TIMING had improved with each passing dirt try before inexplicably switching surfaces and getting waffled down in Churchill. If you can see your way clear of the flop, then this one most definitely figures. #6 RIVER DOG won in scintillating fashion right outta the box for 'Miah, and while this one may be any kind, we'll relegate to the "Unders" as the 280 Tomlinson figure tells us this one could be sitting on a bit of a bounce.  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, #6 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Cross Border

2.City Man

3.Mo Ready

This seems to be another heat that we have narrowed down to only these.  #3 CROSS BORDER owns a boatload of back class, is two of five at today's dx., and could be tough to down with a clean trip. No worse than third for all you show punters out there. #4 CITY MAN lost by less than a length in his one and only "second off the L/O" turf start ( at 14-1 ) and is one for three at today's distance; logical. #5 MO READY hasn't faced the starter since a turf score down at Hallandale Beach @ the end of 2020, but Pletcher knows how to have 'em ready off a hibernation, and could be an overlay at double digit odds.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-4-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:37, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-10-6.

 

Race  9 

1.Espresso Shot

2.Good Credence

3.Timeless Journey

#6 ESPRESSO SHOT ( who goes over the half million dollar mark with a placing today ) has amassed a nice resume' over the last four years, and that includes having won half of her six starts at today's distance. Additionally, Abreu is a perfect four for four with dirt horsies who won 56-111 days back & are 5-1 or undah today ( $6 x 3 & $10 ). #9 GOOD CREDENCE appears to dig Big Sandy ( as the 6:3-1-1 local ledger belies ) and will be brought over by an hombre who has that same win rate with ungraded sand sprinters in the 57-291 day zip code ( $6 x 2 & $14 ), and it's good to see Junior back on. #3 TIMELESS JOURNEY won her only start on the main, and that's reason enough to include. 

 

Race  10

1.Honorable Dreams 

2.Happy Hill Lil

3.Mia Calia

#6 HONORABLE DREAMS displayed improved early hoof when returning off the 7 1/2 month layoff ( went from a 25.10 to a 23.0 for the opening quarter ), and despite this one not being well bred for the green stuff, sometimes maiden turf dashers can get a little brave over the stuff when bringing their dirt speed over. Second off the layoff/Second time Lasix today, and you should know that she's a half to three multiple turf winners. Bombs away in a race with a LOT to be desired. #2 HAPPY HILL LIL hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in either start this year, but with maidens, we go back anywhere in their PP's to find something positive ( as they're winless for a reason, you know ) & this one has a couple'a superfecta finishes on the page. #1 MIA CALIA didn't show much in either turf start to date, but they were going long, and this one has partaken in the super four times in her last six sprints. Could spice things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 4-5-2-8-3   NOTE: AS OF 11:41, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-1-5.


Belmont            ( Current ):  32-213     ( $238.40 )  Beatable Favorites     5-13 ( 38.5% ) Favorites   Win %:    87-213  ( 40.9% ) ( As of Monday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )     Favorites  Win %:     9-22     ( 40.9% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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