SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 6/3
  
  

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Belmont week is upon us, and we head into it on a good note with a positive end to a messy last week. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #3 Dark Money   Race 5 - #1 Lady Valentine


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/3

 

Race  1

1.Steam Engine

2.Runaway Lute

3.Seven Lilies

#4 STEAM ENGINE popped & stopped when going over the blades for the first time, but this one is not particularly well bred for the stuff, and has done his best work right here at Big Sandy, so we're expecting a rebound. #5 RUNAWAY LUTE hasn't been in action since mid March, but this is another with an affinity for the strip ( as the 4 of 8 local ledger belies ) and is 6:3-1-0 w/Javier in the saddle. Seven year old "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) is brought back at the level claimed from this afternoon. #8 SEVEN LILIES found the line first the last time he was entered for this price and may come along for a share.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 DARK MONEY fills the bill, as Atras is 0-7 with first off the snag dirt stock ( 46-50 days ). 

 

Race  2

1.Arch of Fire

2.Before You

3.Adele Kat

#2 ARCH OF FIRE has been beset by layoff lines after each of his two calls to the post, but the lone attempt on firm going ( beneath today's pilot ) yielded an adjusted speed figure of 75.9, which would definitely fit with these. Take note of the nice breeze back on the 9th. #10 BEFORE YOU stopped to a walk when going on the gramma for the first time, but fared well in both dashes prior to that, and should appreciate today's cutback. #5 ADELE KAT outran her odds in a big way when completing the exacta first time out, and is protected against the claim today while being a recipient of Lasix for the 1st time.   OFF TURF: 7-9-1-8-2

 

Race  3

1.Following Sea

2.Wuuda U Think Now

3.Life Changer

#3 FOLLOWING SEA showed "miraculous" improvement second time out for Lidocaine Bob out in California, but because of his cheatin' ways, has since been transferred over to The Toddster, and lands in a good spot for the east coat bow. Deserving fave, but be leery of a possible bounce. #1 WUDDA U THINK NOW has yet to finish out of the superfecta, and ( sans one outing ) has improved with each passing start, while moving up in class along the way. Gelding has a nice declining mark of 7:3-2-1, and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play as well. Over the last 60 months, 18% Rudy Rod doubles that batting average with locally based allowance dirt stock off breaks of 32-50 days ( 4-1 or less ) as he's 11:4-1-1-3 with that type ( $9, $5 x 2 & $3 ). #4 LIFE CHANGER hasn't been seen in nearly the full length of a calendar, but the winning bow was decent enough, and this one has a shot if sound & fully cranked up. 

 

Race  4 

1.Gonna Be Dancing

2.Brother Jeremiah

3.Volkert

#1 GONNA BE DANCING overcame a green onset to pick up the place money first time, and three returnees from that heat have gone 3:1-0-2 in their followup engagements ( Beyers not known as of this writing ). Sire was a goodie on the sod ( banking more than a million clams ), and although the dam never set a hoof on the stuff, the damsire was 5:1-0-2 in that regards. Smart move for the owner to sheep down and attempt to grab some breeders' rewards. #5 BROTHER JEREMIAH has been working well for today's initial afternoon sojourn to the frontside ( 6th best of 78 gate move ), and trainer conditioned the mommy, who was 9:1-1-0 on the gramma ). #9 VOLKERT completes the Davis "sister/brother in law-father/brother" triple based on the fact that he went for 12X the stud fee at auction, and the solid turf pedigree as well.  OFF TURF: 3-9-6-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Venus Oyzo

2.After the Party

3.Soupster

#7 VENUS OYZO is a longshot's longshot for sure, but goes from a turf route to a dirt sprint this afternoon, and the only other time she attempted that, an 80.1 was the end result. Recognize that in 45 lifetime workouts, there have only been two bullets -- the first....and the last. #2 AFTER THE PARTY put forth a lively showing first time out, and the two who finished directly in front of her that day, both retuned victress' in their followup engagements, with an average three point reduction in the BSF department. #3 SOUPSTER hasn't been in action since the flat debut back in November, but gets the wonder drug for the first time, and may show some improvement.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 LADY VALENTINE doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept 2-1 ?

 

Race  6 

1.Publication

2.Change of Control

3.Sweet Bye and Bye

#1 PUBLICATION has improved with each passing start, and despite being hiked up in class today, can most definitely get the hat trick given the connections. Gal could do with some pace to cut into, but will need to sit a perfect pocket trip beneath single digit Javy. #4 CHANGE OF CONTROL ( who has hit the board in five straight ) usually gives a good account of herself, and we like that her favorite pilot flies in for the mount. #2 SWEET BYE AND BYE makes her third start off a "true" break in the action today, and the ol' grey mare owns a 3:1-1-1 mark when doing such. Six year old is 2:1-0-1 on the Widener, and just got the job done in her only pairing with Irad.  OFF TURF: 5-1-4-6-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Midsummer Nights

2.American Bound

3.Constitution Gal

#5 MIDSUMMER NIGHTS hasn't quite set the pulse racing in either start to date, but catches a glib surface for the first time, and while this is the first foal out of a dam who left a lot to be desired, both the sire and maternal grandsire were classic winners, so we wouldn't be shocked to see this one take a step forward today. There's a decent trainer stat in play here, as 20% barn is 3 for 7 with dirt sprinters who hit the money 28-50 days back @ 35-1 or less ( $23, $12 & $11 ). #6 AMERICAN BOUND got the job done right outta the box down at Keeneland in early April, but apparently had a disdain for the Churchill goo 26 days later when finishing a well beaten 5th, and we'll give her a chance to make amends on a quick surface. #3 CONSTITUTION GAL was a bit tardy to the party first time out, but still managed to best half a turf field right here, and expensive purchase is nicely bred for this trip. 

 

Race  8 

1.Gift List ( GB ) 

2.Jouster

3.Con Lima

#6 GIFT LIST (GB) has yet to finish outside of the exacta, and comes in today off a win against tougher at CD at the end of April. No reason to not expect another solid effort in today's third start off the shelf. #5 JOUSTER is the clear speed of this deal, got her Polaroid taken in her lone start off a respite, and is but a nose shy of being a poyfect 4 for 4 with Looie in the irons; deserving chalk. #2 CON LIMA has been a different animal since switching surfaces ( 5:4-1-0 ) and should be left in all your rolling action.  OFF TURF: 3-6-9-5-1

 

Race  9 

1.Let's Go Native

2.Wow

3.Evvie Jets

#7 LET'S GO NATIVE begins her career in today's nitecap, and the 348/382 Tomlinsons for the surface & distance tell us today's parameters should be right in her wheelhouse. We'll take a nibble at 15-1. #8 WOW has hit the skids a bit after three consecutive placings to begin her resume', but blinks are now part of the package, and gal could perk up a bit. #5 EVVIE JETS hasn't been in action since turkey time, but did some decent work in 2020, and pre-layoff Cancel returns, which we see as a positive.  OFF TURF: 6-2-9-1-10

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  35-223     ( $248.50 )  Beatable Favorites     5-13 ( 38.5% ) Favorites   Win %:    91-223  ( 40.9% ) ( As of Thursday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )     Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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