SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 6/5 - Belmont Stakes Day
  
  

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Profitable Grand Slam on another mess of a day yesterday, and along with those winners were five Rolling Doubles of $59, $14, $103, $53 & $21, as favorites have continued to rule the roost in New York since closing weekend of the winter meet ( 164 for 358...45.8% )

Let's see if we can keep that mojo going into today's big card !!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/6 - Belmont Stakes Day

 

Race  1

1.Wit

2.Hagler

3.Too Much Action

#4 WIT is a $22,500 bred animal who went for 25 times that amount at Keeneland this past September, and starts out his working life today toting along a bullet gate breeze, which is something that always merits inclusion. Late foal gives up a bit of a maturity edge to the rest of the group, but is in fact a half to perennial fan favorite at Emerald Downs, Barkley, who went 20:10-5-1, banking nearly 370 large. Sticking with the boxing theme, #3 HAGLER ( and no, the two great fighters never squared off ) was a well beaten but daylight clear runner up first time out, and the figure earned from that day tells us this one should be no worse than 2nd in this spot. #8 TOO MUCH ACTION is a Texas bred who's been working admirably in Delaware for today's New York overture, and connections must think highly of this one to eschew a softer spot down south.  NOTE: AS OF 9:24 A.M., DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Mach One

2.My Cousin Rich

3.Pipeline

#10 MACH ONE has shown improvement with each passing start, and we like that this one is still claim protected after the snag two starts back. 47 and 2 bullet breeze for the comebacker is encouraging to see, and barn enlists their go-to rider. #9 MY COUSIN RICH came from the back of the pack to lose by less than a length when starting things out at Philadelphia Park 26 days back, and as this one is substantially better bred for the green than the brown, we wouldn't be surprised to see another solid performance. #6 PIPELINE ran into a buzzsaw first time out, and while this one is eligible to improve on the gramma, 3-1 is a tough piece of broccoli to swallow.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-5-6

 

Race  3

1.Jackie's Warrior

2.Caddo River

3.Dream Shake

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #3 JACKIE'S WARRIOR has won all five of her one turn events ( which includes a tally right here ), and according to DRF Formulator, "The As-Man" owns that same mark with locally based graded dirt stock who won 20-50 days back & are 7-2 or less, with mutuels of $9 x 2, $8, $4 & $2. Her race to lose. #6 CADDO RIVER has a 3:1-2-0 mark when going 1X, and won by a pole the only time she loaded last. Will likely be stalking the above. #4 DREAM SHAKE has yet to miss the board & gets a three post swap & two pound swing with Jackie today. Not hopeless. 

 

Race  4 

1.Lone Rock

2.Ajaaweed

3.Tizamagician 

#9 LONE ROCK is but a neck shy of going for seven in a row today, and Diodoro has done "miraculous" work with this one since reclaiming him from a Hall of Fame trainer for $40,000 last year, as gelding has banked $226,884 since, including two stakes wins. Aforementioned shotcaller has won with all three dirt routers at 8-1 or less who won 28-50 days back, ridden by Vasquez -- who got a good friend of ours into the NHC on Monday with a longshot winner. #7 AJAWEED comes in today off a career best effort when placing in the Flat Out and gets an appreciable rider switch off that effort. #8 TIZAMAGICIAN lived up to her odds on billing in the Tokyo City, winning that race by nine out in Arcadia, and makes all kinds of sense coming back at the same distance. 

 

Race  5

1.Obligatory

2.Travel Column

3.Search Results

90th year of the Acorn being run, and for some history of the race ( with some BIG names having won it ), please go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acorn_Stakes . As for the race itself, we'll give the nod to #2 OBLIGATORY was visually impressive when going from zero to hero in winning the Eight Belles at CD a tad over five weeks back, and while a bounce is always possible off a career best #, we're betting that the progression shown over the quartet of starts continues this afternoon. From a "trainer stat" perspective, Mott is a saucy 4 for 6 with Belmont based graded dirt equines who tallied a win 22-50 days back & are 12-1 or lower ( $3 x 3 & $6 ). #1 TRAVEL COLUMN has been alternating wins & losses in each start thus far, so today should be a victory, no? If only the game was that simple. Grey gal was photogenic in her sole try making one left turn, and should sit a nice trip with but one other true speedster signed on. #6 SEARCH RESULTS is but a noggin' shy of a poyfect 4 fer 4 boxscore, and that includes wins in both starts when going one turn, as well as a tally in her only deal when last to load. Deserving fave. 

 

Race  6 

1.Greyes Creek

2.Oleksandra ( Aus )

3.Chewing Gum

We don't have the clearest of reads on this year's rendition of the Jaipur ( always a competitive affair ) and will give a slight nod to the #5 GREYES CREEK. Five year old has recently been removed from the Chad Brown barn, and the first thing new bossman Lobo does is spot him in the toughest race of his career. The good news tho, is that this one owns a win in a second off the L/O attempt, and after going oh-fer-19 when being handed a horse, Lobo is now the sheriff in that regards, having won three of his last four, and just look at these prices ( that have all come on the turf & poly ) -- $20, $8 & $66 !!  #9 OLEKSANDRA (AUS) burned some baccala when finishing a flat fifth in the comebacker, but history tells us this one has won both his "second off the respite, turf sprints" ( in which the jockey stayed aboard ), and man, it sure is hard to argue with the three for three mark on the Inner, ain't it? #1 CHEWING GUM completed the triple in his only "second off the hibernation" attempt, and six year old "horse" ( You hang on to them chiclets, buddy !! ) has been a part of the super in both starts when breaking from the pine; big time jock upgrade in store.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-3-1  NOTE: AS OF 9:28, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Letruska

2.Bonny South

3.Swiss Skydiver

Another race where our top troika will suffice.  #3 LETRUSKA ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there ) re-rallied for us to win the Apple Blossom in gutsy fashion , running up this one's lifetime ledger to 18:13-1-1-1, and we see little reason a repeat isn't with reach in the Ogden Phipps. #7 BONNY SOUTH held on by a head at Keeneland in her first start off an elongated absence, and before you start worrying about a bounce, keep in mind that this one improved by about 15.2% in her only second off the break jammie. The amazing #1 SWISS SKYDIVER visits her TENTH different venue from just 15 starts today, and game gal owns a 3:2-1-0 make when beginning from the inside, and going from Robby Albarado to Jose Ortiz is like getting first time Lasix. Expecting a vastly improved effort here.  NOTE: AS OF 9:32. DUE TO TWO KEY SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-4-6.  NOTE: AS ONLY ONE OF OUR SELECTIONS WAS SCRATCHED, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  8 

1.Daddy Is a Legend

2.Abscond

3.New York Girl ( Ire )

Another wide, wide open turf event on tap.  #3 DADDY IS A LEGEND is a bit light from a speed figure perspective, but Weaver charge has improved by an average of 13.5 points from all her first off the layoff outings to her second off the layoff outings, and is reunited with Manny Man today ( 9:1-2-3-1 together ). Don't sell this one short at a big numbah. #7 ABSCOND usually gives a good account of herself, and it's encouraging to see Joel stick around for today's third start off the break in the action. #12 NEW YORK GIRL ( IRE ) has gotten better, and better, and better in all her North American starts, so you're getting a runner with an unknown ceiling at double digit odds. OFF TURF: 8-1-3-9-4

 

Race  9 

1.By My Standards

2.Knicks Go

3.Mischievous Alex

The olllllll' Met Mile in it's traditional "Week after Memorial Day" slot. NURSE !!!  #5 BY MY STANDARDS was all out to get up in time at Oaklawn on the 10th of April ( off nearly a half year sabbatical ), and Calhoun trainee is 3:1-1-0 in "true" second off the L/O spots, while having his regular rider make the northward journey for today's event. Mild choice in a toughie. #6 KNICKS GO won his first four starts after being transferred over to the Cox barn ( "Another Festivus miracle !!" ) before having the streak snapped in Saudi Arabia, but as this one is a "mere" 1 for 5 in one turn starts ( compared to being 5 for 14 otherwise ), we'll keep beneath. #1 MISCHIEVOUS ALEX has won three straight, six of eight, and is two of three after a layoff line; what's not to like? 

 

Race  10

1.Bye Bye Melvin

2.City Man

3.Masteroffoxhounds

#2 BYE BYE MELVIN dead heated for 4th place in a G2 event on Preakness day, but don't read to much into the defeat, as this one is now 0-3 in second off the layoff deals, but what we like to see is that two of two record in third off the layoff affairs ( both on the turf at $10 & $41 ). Barn has been an igloo in New York over the last 40 some odd races, so if you're going to take a swing with someone who's slumping, be sure to do it at a price. #1 CITY MAN was an honest runner up in the Fort Marcy ( earning a best figaro in the process ), and Tyler has made us some money with pocket runners in turf routes, so we have no qualms about using at 15-1. #3 MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS had improved over all four of his starts since arriving in the U.S. of A., but then flopped with no palpable excuse beneath the Twin Spires, but they all can't be winners, kid, so we'll give him a shot to make amends.  OFF TURF: 5-4-8-6-3

 

Race  11

1.France Go de Ina

2.Essential Quality

3.Rombauer

Featured race of the day is upon us, and in this truncated field, we'll seek some value. After winning two straight to finish up his 2020 campaign in Japan, #5 FRANCE GO DE INA was quite flat in the UAE Derby, ( when being in the back of the back for a solid chunk of the race ) before displaying some decent early hoof in the early stages of the Preakness before fading after a half. Runner was "distracted" to say the least on several occasions in the mornings leading up to the race ( even dumping the rider one time ), but has been conducting his morning affairs at Belmont much better ( as there's more room to work with ), and we're looking for a stronger effort here underneath a jockey who is very strong in the lane. In the FWIW department, a search of everyone involved in the family tree shows a cumulative 3:0-2-0 mark in races at 1 3/8th's miles or more, so we really don't think the dist. should be too much of an issue. #2 ESSENTIAL QUALITY got smacked around at the onset down in Louisville, and tho finishing 4th that day, will officially be moved up to 3rd once Lidocaine Bob's disqualification has been made official ( as the sample of Medina Spirit did in fact prove that the trainer cheated in the Kentucky Derby ). That being said, we can't fault those taking a favorable view of EQ here, but believe he'll be more like 8/5 come postward. #3 ROMBAUER posted a career best fig in winning down in Maryland, & while we'd be remiss in excluding, we see a mild regression very possible in this spot. 

 

Race  12 

1.Cara's Dreamer

2.Unicorn Sally

3.Magnetique

#7 CARA'S DREAMER has gone 50-59-65 in her triad of turf routes to date, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Although she hasn't been stellar since being freshened up, she hasn't disgraced herself either, and appears to be rounding into form a bit. Blink addition couldn't hurt. #8 UNICORN SALLY has partaken in the super in nine of her last ten, and that includes two outings off a break in the action. Demand a price with chilly Javy getting legged up. We like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment and/or medication change after a strong performance, and Nevin sees fit to affix the eye cups for the first time after s legit showing by #10 MAGNETIQUE on 4/24. Bullet morning move over a wet track on Tuesday signals this one's fondness for the blinks, and we're expecting another honest try.  OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-1-2-4-6-9  NOTE: AS OF 9:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  13 

1.Kentucky Pharoah

2.Winning Factor

3.Journeyman

We thing #4 KENTUCKY PHAROAH may be an overlay in the ( literal ) nitecap, as you can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figs of this one's first quartet of treks to the frontside, ( which includes two wire to wire jobs when transitioning to the verde ), but something apparently went awry in the Kitten's Joy, ( hence the 4+ month sabbatical ) and now returns with the big "L" administered for the 1st time. Three year old gets a break in the weights, and perhaps T-Gaff can walk the dog here. #10 WINNING FACTOR is 3:1-2-0 on the Inner Turf Course & is perfection with Jose astride ( 3-3 ). #5 JOURNEYMAN wraps up the looooong morning/afternoon/evening marathon session.  OFF TURF: 6-5-10-3-2

 
Belmont            ( Current ):  41-243     ( $281.70 )  Beatable Favorites     6-15 ( 40% )  Favorites   Win %:    101-243  ( 41.6% ) ( As of Saturday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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