SaratogaBets Handicapping - Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 6/6
  
  

KevinCoxItem


Just three chalky swinners on an afternoon full of the stuff, as faves are now 169 for 381 ( 44.4% ) since closing weekend of the winter meet.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #8 Miss Mi Mi


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/6

 

Race  1

1.Lily Simone

2.Zaccapa ( Fr ) 

3.JAnselle 

#5 LILY SIMONE has a nice collection of speed figures and take the biggest drop in the game for today's third start off the layoff; should be no worse than second for all those who enjoy betting to place. #9 ZACCAPA (FR) comes in today off of back to back L/O lines, ( which is something that always raises some flags ) but is another who's made available for purchase for the first time, and recognize that her best effort to date came off a break in the action. #1 JANSELLE is a firster with a maturity edge over all but one in here, and totes along a couple'a nice morning moves for the bow.  OFF TURF: 5-4-7-6(MTO)-2  NOTE: AS OF 10:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Clench

2.Aristocratic

3.Reed Kan

#6 CLENCH is a fairly steady sort who's done his best work right here at Big Sandy ( 5:3-0-1 ) and has also hit the board in five of six outings when breaking from the outermost two slots. Sensible selection. #1 ARISTOCRATIC appears to be the clear speed of this deal but despite the trainer having just three wins in her career, we'll chunk in because of the recent speed figure shown & this one's fondness for the strip. #5 REED KAN bested slightly weaker when last in action at the end of March, and ridgling ( ouch ) has found the line first in his last two trips off a respite, but we'll keep in the "unders" as the pilot and shotcaller have both been on the duck for quite some time. 

 

Race  3

1.Bolgheri 

2.Petrus

3.Hereby

#10 BOLGHERI has been in the back half of the field in both starts to date, but we've always been forgiving of pre & post layoff running lines, as perhaps something went amiss in the former with runner not being fully cranked up in the latter. That being said, this one has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the first time, and has decent enough pedigree to deserve another shot. #7 PETRUS hasn't been in action in nearly a year, but the adjusted figaro from the career starter was a 73.7, and could spice things up, should a frigid Castellano work out a decent trip. #9 HEREBY showed nothing in the dirt debut, but Rosario sees fit to stick around, and $260,000 auction purchase can be all yours for 40 large today.  OFF TURF: 1-5-10-7-2

 

Race  4 

1.Baby Boss

2.Sweet Mia

3.Miss Mi Mi

#6 BABY BOSS was claimed for two dimes out of a sharp placing right here 31 days ago, and that number is of some relevance, as being it was one day more than the jail period, it permits the new trainer to bring 'Boss right back at the same level. In the DRF Formulator department, Kantarmaci is a crisp 6:4-2-0 with freshly purchased mid level female dirt stock who were in the money 12-50 days back ( $5, $6, $7 & $8 ). #7 SWEET MIA will be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver here, based on her recent troika of adjusted speed figures along with a nice record at the trip. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #8 MISS MI MI

 

Race  5

1.Hilliard

2.Johnnypump

3.Fingal

#10 HILLIARD has pretty much been in the rear with the gear in his quartet of starts thus far, but the initial turf try over firm ground produced an adj. BSF of 73.8, and as there are no superstars entered, we'll permit ourselves to go that far back to find something positive. #4 JOHNNYPUMP may perk up with the blinker removal this afternoon. #2 FINGAL ( cross entered Friday, so check the changes ) has a nice collection of #'s and would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 6-5-1-4-2

 

Race  6 

1.Defy Expectations

2.Towering Gaze 

3.Ginger Kitty

#9 DEFY EXPECTATIONS who had no hope when hung out wide down at PIM last out, was a lively runner up in her sole "second off the shelf" engagement ( which came when shipped up here & running on this turf course ), and can definitely take a step forward w/today's positive jockey switch. Slight edge. #3 TOWERING GAZE makes her third start off a break here, and her lone tally came beneath Jose. #10 GINGER KITTY hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but barn without a starter in more than eight months entices Alvarado to climb on, and has a puncher's chance if ( and that's a BIG "if" able to regain some of that prior form.  OFF TURF: 7-10-5-6-4

 

Race  7

1.Bella Sofia

2.Dr B 

3.Decade

Our three selections here should be enough. #3 BELLA SOFIA won by a pole when beginning her working life right here on the 6th of the month, and while she may have outran her pedigree a bit that day, even with a bit of a regression she should still be able to handle this grouping. #2 DR B has led at every point of call during her sophomore season, and the runner up from her most recent victory got the job done when next facing the starter, improving her speed number by four pts. in the process. #5 DECADE stepped into the land of winners for the first time in Arkansas at the end of April, and won in going away fashion in the goo -- which she ls substantially less better bred for than a fast track. Note that the win came when having Lasix administered for the first time, so a bounce is not out of the realm of possibility. 

 

Race  8 

1.Dot Matrix

2.Analyze It

3.Reux ( GB )

#2 DOT MATRIX left himself when too much to do when getting smacked around a bit at the onset down in the Bayou back in December, but eight year old with a nice "declining" turf mark of 36:10-6-5 has historically done quite well when coming back off a sabbatical, and today's rider in Rosario has guided this one to two narrow misses in their lone partnerships. 26% Cox owns a 9:4-2-1 mark with optional turf stayers off L/O's of more than 67 days ( 16-1 or undah ), with mutuels of $4, $11, $16 & $14. #4 ANALYZE IT hasn't displayed that same mid race punch in his last duet, but won by a half dozen in his only dance on the Widener, and digs this trip as well. #3 REUX (GB) gave the late fade when showing his face in the States for the 1st time, but won comfortably the only time he was in a second of the L/O spot, and is one of two speeds signed on.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-6  NOTE: AS OF 10:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Royal Kitten

2.F F Rocket

3.Front Man

#5 ROYAL KITTEN has yet to finish out of the money while improving with each trip to the frontside, culminating with a diploma earning effort on the Turfway Park poly on the 26th of March. The Beyes are a bit low, but the turf bloodlines are honest enough, and this one skips over the blades for just the second time; there will be a change in riders, BTW. #1 F F ROCKET has been kept in prison since being plucked out of an OP dirt event 50 days in the rear, and as this one has already scored on the poly, we're betting he can handle the gramma as well. #2 FRONT MAN is still above the price claimed from two back, despite showing little on 5/14. Interesting to see Rosario accept a call from a Nordic shedrow that he rarely rides for.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-6

  

 
Belmont            ( Current ):  44-256     ( $298.30 )  Beatable Favorites     6-15 ( 40% )  Favorites   Win %:    106-256  ( 41.4% ) ( As of Sundayy morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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