SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 6/10


Just five weeks until Opening Day at Saratoga !

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #5 Ghostmon

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/10


Race  1

1.Pier Forty

2.Liam's Fire


#2 PIER FORTY is back in decent form after being freshened up for 2 1/2 months, putting up back to back "71's", the second of which was at the level just above today's. Gelding has done his best work over this oval ( 2 for 6, compared to being 0-18 at other locales ), and there's a solid DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Noda has won with half of his ten locally based mid level male dirt stock who hit the board 15-35 days ago ( 10:5-4-1 ) with a strong $3.60 ROI as well. #6 LIAM'S FIRE has a touch of early speed & is one for two at today's dx., but we'll leave beneath as the trainer and jockey are icicles of late. #3 OBSESSED found the line first the only time he was available for purchase & today's pilot has closed out the exacta in two of three aboard this one.


Race  2


2.Dr. Shane

3.Ghost Giant

#1 NUTZFORBOLTZ can complete the Noda/Noda double based on this one's decent 11:1-4-4 mark when routing on a firm Widener course, and a confident hike in class off a career best turf number. Slight edge. #3 DR. SHANE can be forgiven the most recent, with that troubled trip & all, and by doing that what you're looking at are four sharp efforts in turf routes; gelding digs the trip & it's encouraging to see Looie stick around. #9 GHOST GIANT has done nice work at this trip and over this strip & can land a share.  OFF TURF: 7-1-6(MTO)-2-1A(MTO)


Race  3



3.Amazing Dream 

#6 GERRYMANDER is a $225,000 bred animal who went for that + 150 more at Keeneland back in September, and starts out her working life today with a 388 Tomlinson figure & a bullet gate breeze, which always merits consideration. This one is a half to Lone Rock ( 750G earner ) who won the G2 Brooklyn in a dazzling performance on Saturday as well as Public Information, who broke his maiden for this barn on 4/23. Trainer is a crisp 4 fer 5 with FTS'er fitting ALL these exact parameters ( any jock & NO Lasix ), with mutuels of $12, $13, $5, $14 & $4, and this one could be a goodie. #1 LEMIEUEX ( the lone "non firster" in the bunch ) was a daylight beaten but well clear runner up behind a next out winner when debuting on this oval 25 days back, and can move up off that performance. #4 AMAZING DREAM ( bred for 15 & sold for 190 ) has a nicely hidden work on the tab for The Toddster, & owns the same Tommy as our primary selection.  NOTE: AS OF 12:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.



Race  4 


2.The Important One


#9 KOKOPELLI has been visually impressive in winning both starts to date, and C-Squared is a delovely 6:5-1-0 with locally based optional sod sprinters right here off breaks of 65 days or less ( $4, $5, $6 x 2 & $19. No reason not to expect another big try. #8 THE IMPORTANT ONE ( who will have a jockey change ) posted a lifetime best numero in her lone "second off the layoff" deal & is one of two on the Inner. #3 DANCINGWTHDAFODLS is a pain in the butt to spell ( or misspell, as it were ) can come along for a sniff.  OFF TURF: 3-4-1-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  5

1.Home Run Maker

2.The Queens Jules

3.Eagle Pass

Just one first draft elimination here, so tread lightly. #2 HOME RUN MAKER trailed throughout in the comebacker and did the same in his last start before the hiatus, but we always try to be forgiving in scenarios such as this, as perhaps the runner wasn't fully cranked up in the former while having something go amiss in the latter. You can get some prices this way, and that being said, this one had amassed a decent resume' before all of that, and likes this distance as well; price play. After running up a 3:1-1-1 in her troika of outings after the claim, #3 THE QUEENS JULES was ambitiously spotted at a level twice of today's, and after flopping, is back at a more suitable spot today for Papa Englehart. Jose ( who rarely rides for this outfit & has NEVER ridden this horse ) gets the nod. #4 EAGLE PASS shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and it's well within reach given this one's poyfect three for three record in Elmont, and the fact that two of seven returnees ( from four sui generis heats ) came back to win their next races with an average Beyer improvement of 10.6 points per ( among those who finished ). 



Race  6 

1.Dante's Fire

2.Kid Mercury


#3 DANTE'S FIRE hasn't seen the scene since the day after Christmas, but gelding is made available for purchase for the 1st time, and gets one of the meet's leading riders aboard. #10 KID MERCURY ( used to coach a kid in baseball by that name -- helluva pitcher ) has a touch of back class and wouldn't be much of a surprise here. #4 MALTHAEL completed the triple in both T to D engagements, and fell short by only a neck the last time he was put in at this level. Not hopeless.  OFF TURF: 8-3-1-6-7


Race  7

1.Linny Kate

2.Windfall Profit

3.High Opinion

#6 LINNY KATE has a propensity for burning some baccala, but has yet to miss the board on the gramma, and is eligible to be in peak form for today's 3rd off the L/O scenario -- including a showing right here. #4 WINDFALL PROFIT is another who's making her third start off the shelf this afternoon, and this grey gal got her Polaroid taken in her only other "true" start off a similar absence. The only drawback is that Javier still hasn't gotten above 10% in the win department. #7 HIGH OPINION has partaken in the triple in his last three trips to the track, and lost by less than a length in her only 2nd of the layoff spot ( at 25-1 no less ). "California Joe" gets the assignment.  OFF TURF: 2-1(MTO)-7-4-3



Race  8 

1.Town Classic


3.Jalen Journey

#2 TOWN CLASSIC is a "professional nibbler", with that 50:6-20-10 mark staring straight at ya, but eight year old has done okay here ( 2:1-0-1 ), and there ain't no Firenze Fire's signed on. Mild selection. #3 JEMOGRAPHY showed improved speed last time out, and the 4:0-3-0 mark in this zip code & 3:0-3-0 record with Junior in the irons tells us that the secondary spot is fine for this Hennig charge. #5 JALEN JOURNEY has some graded black type to his credit and completed the tri in his sole third off the bench attempt; check the changes for a new jockey. 


Race  9 

1.Eight Weeks Long


3.Pivotal Run

#10 EIGHT WEEKS LONG took the overland route when outrunning his 33-1 offering on 5/14, and 12% shotcaller is a crisp 5 for 6 with maiden claiming turf stayers off breaks of 53 days of less ( < 30-1 ). The payouts for that survey were $21, $9 x 2, $8 & $7, and trainer/jockey paired up with a 60-1 winner last week ( that we had selected for second ). #4 DRESSEDFORTHEFIFTH got smacked around a bit at the onset of his working life, and Rosario treated it as a learning experience while "guiding" him 6W in finishing 7th of 12. When it comes to his maiden claiming 2TS'ers who missed the money at first asking & are now stretching out, Clement is three for four, w/prices of $8, $11 & $14. #6 PIVOTAL RUN gets the "Chop & Drop" for today's return to action, and also receives the big "L" for the first time as well. Threat if able to get back to the initial outing.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 GHOSTMON  NOTE: AS OF 12:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

Belmont            ( Current ):  46-265     ( $325.10 )  Beatable Favorites    6-16  ( 37.5% ) Favorites   Win %:    108-265  ( 40.8% ) ( As of Monday morning ) 


Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout