SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 6/12



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/12


Race  1

1.Beyond Brown


3.Take It Off

#4 BEYOND BROWN has been kept in jail since being snagged for 16K about two months ago ( something a lot easier to do when you own the horse ) and is brought back at that very same level this afternoon, and new shotcaller is 8 for 19 with second off the layoff freshly purchased dirt runners at this level who last ran 51-65 days ago ( 11-1 or less ). #1 PREDETERMINED was a snappy winner first time out down at Keeneland first time out, and ended up in the Linda Rice ( who is appealing her license revocation by the New York State Gaming Commission, where she was said to have gained access to entries to races that she was considering entering in ) barn immediately afterwards. As the Beyer from that day didn't get the pulse racing, this one is brought back for the same price here, and makes sense if sound & fully cranked up. #3 TAKE IT OFF could perk up with the blinker removal.  NOTE: DUE TO A GATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2


2.Southern Flag


#1 VINDICTIVE begins his working life today, and pricey three year old does such with a couple'a bullet breezes in tow, as well as a 405 Tomlinson figure for the trip. Colt gives up a maturity advantage to all but one in here, but is a half to Stopchargingmaria, who banked more than three million dollars while going 18:9-4-1 while winning three grade ones. #4 SOUTHERN FLAG encountered a bunch of trouble when closing out the exacta right here about a month ago, and is promptly replaced by Junior this afternoon, and given the BSF hung up that afternoon, we'd be remiss in excluding. #5 BEATBOX hasn't been seen since besting only one at first asking back in the fall, but gets the wonder drug here and could show some improvement. 


Race  3


2.Roaming Union

3.Pubilius Syrus

#1A LEGIT has shown some improvement in all three fast track outings this year, culminating with a wide but decent showing vs. tougher over this oval three weeks in the past. Chestnut chap finds himself at his lowest level to date, and this one's best work on the resume' has come at today's distance of ground ( 4:2-1-0, compared to being 10:1-1-2 at other trips ). #4 ROAMING UNION has ascended the speed figure ladder over his last quartet and drops a touch. #3 PUBILIUS SYRUS ( a famous Latin writer ) has won his last two when made available for purchase, and six year old "horse" ( you safeguard those marbles, buddy boy ! ) lures Jose to ride.   NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-2-7.


Race  4 

1.Minuteman ( Ger ) 

2.Bunker Hill 


#6 MINUTEMAN (GER) outran his odds when losing by less than five when jumping into the deep end of the pool back in mid April, and six returnees from that affair came back to ring up a cumulative 6:2-0-2 record in their ( five different ) followup engagements, and ( excluding this one ) improved by an avg. of 4.5 pts. per. Big shot at a square price. #4 BUNKER HILL was pulled up after the finish when starting things out way back in September, but Barclay doesn't run unsound horses, and this one now gets the big "L" for the first time. #2 NEWSWORTHY rounds out the tri.  OFF TURF: 1-8-6-2-7


Race  5



3.Control Group

#4 KAZMANIA was in the back half of the field in the comebacker, but that was his best wet track figure to date, and if you were to prorate it to his best fast track figure, then what you have is a # which puts him in the thick of things here. Not hopeless, despite the recent ugly running lines. #1 MICROSCOPE has been a part of the superfecta in six of his last seven, and this one's last three in the money finishes came beneath today's pilot. Four year old has scored from the pine before, and will need to sit a good pocket trip. #2 CONTROL GROUP immolated some baccala in an off the turf event a dozen days past, but it's hard not to like the 31:10-8-4 "declining" mark on a fast track, and we'll chunk in, despite slumping Javier at the helm. 


Race  6 


2.Miss Delicious

3.Bella Jenshea

#9 SUPERBLOODWOLFMOON has lost ground in the lane in each & every start, but Kerry ( or his owner ) is electing to keep this one claim protected despite the pair of layoff lines after being purchased on the 1st of February, and perhaps that's because of the nice speed shown in the initial turf jammie. We're fond of fading dirt sprinters stretching out on the gramma, as sometimes they can get brave, and we'll take a swing on a trainer ( spend some time talking horses with him ) who deserves some better stock given his knowledge. #1 MISS DELICIOUS showed a touch of a "Z" pattern when first seen ( lost 5 1/2 lengths from the half to the top of the stretch before regaining 2 1/4 from that point to the line, and you'd have to think that recent 6F breeze gave this one some stamina for the return. #4 BELLA JENSHEA split the field at first asking & has been working lights out up at The Spa for the comebacker.  OFF TURF: 3-2-5-7-8


Race  7


2.Love and Love


These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 ENTREAT overcame a bit of trouble to get up in time right outta the box down at Churchill back in September, but Brown then backed off this lady for one reason or another, seven weeks later. She responded to the respite w/a bullet breeze in her first morning move a half'a calendar later, and hasn't missed a beat since. We're expecting a goodie. #2 LOVE AND LOVE comes in today off a duet of sharp placings, and the 11 of 21 exacta rate is goodly enough to include; no worse than second for all you show punters out there. #6 SUBSIDIARY bested what we would consider to be a tougher allotment in going away fashion and can't quibble with those taking a favorable view. 


Race  8 

1.Fierce Lady 

2.Good Credence

3.Ruvies in Time

#1 FIERCE LADY has some some nice work right here and comes in today off a crisp win versus optional foes. Threat right back. #3 GOOD CREDENCE got her picture taken in her lone second off the layoff deal, and owns a 7:3-2-1 ledger at Big Sandy, in contrast to her 5:0-1-0 mark on other strips. Logical contendress. #4 RUVIES IN TIME is a snazzy 6 for 14 at today's distance, and that's a touch better than the 0-8 mark in other events.  NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9 

1.Battle Station

2.Ghoul ( Brz )

3.Guildsman ( Fr )

#5 BATTLE STATION won this race 23 days in the rear, and the only way he can be put back in the same spot would be for an $80,000 tag, which he is. Franco fills in for the injured Kendrick Carmouche, and this one is one of two in third off the layoff outings on the gramma. #3 GHOUL (BRZ) is one of those horses that is in "good but not great" form that you feel compelled to use, and we'll do just that, given his collection of BSF's. #1 GUILDSMAN (FR) can complete the "Pizzeria/Churrascaria/Bistro" triple based on the better record with Lasix than without, along with the nice mark @ the trip.  OFF TURF: 3-6(MTO)-10-2-1


Race  10

1.Reeley Psyched

2.Lady Manhattan

3.Sweet Franny Lu

#12 REELEY PSYCHED has shown improvement with each trip to the frontside, and can continue that ascension once again, in going long for the 2nd time. #5 LADY MANHATTAN was up the track at 23-1 in the 5/15 bow, but takes the biggest drop in the game, and how often do you see a Pletcher charge run two stinkers to start out their career? #2 SWEET FRANNY LU is another one taking the plunge & has decent turf pedigree for today's first try over the stuff.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3


Belmont            ( Current ):  46-283     ( $325.10 )  Beatable Favorites    7-18  ( 38.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    114-283  ( 40.3% ) ( As of Saturday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout