SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 6/18
  
  

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Back on track with a profitable three bagger yesterday along with two successful Beatable Favorites.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/18

 

Race  1

1.Lokoya Road

2.Super Wicked Charm

3.Wild Union

#5 LOKOYA ROAD didn't show much in the comebacker, but Franco returns this afternoon, which leads us to believe that perhaps this one wasn't fully cranked up that day. Having said such, gelding went 73-75 in his two dirt starts last year ( the lattermost being a win ), so who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Seems nicely spotted here. #1 SUPER WICKED CHARM overcame a bit of trouble at the onset to close out the tri vs. slightly weaker down at the shore, & as this one has historically been about 9.7% better on a dry track than a wet one, we're expecting some improvement here. #7 WILD UNION was a well beaten but decently clear runner up when facing tougher three weeks past & makes all kinds of sense here. 

 

Race  2

1.Pammy's Ready 

2.Manhaal

3.Champagne Camie

#3 PAMMY'S READY was a so-so 4th first time out, but six returnees from that affair amassed a cumulative 6:2-0-2 mark in their followup ( five different ) engagements, and well bred runner ( purportedly ) catches firm ground for the first time. #8 MANHAAL is a $225,000 bred animal who went for nearly two times that amount at auction, begins her professional working life in this spot, and not only totes along a healthy Tomlinson for the gramma ( 343 ), but brings along a crisp gate move ( 48 & 4, 14th best of 86 ) as well. Note that this one is a half to Takeover Target, who went 15:5-2-1 ( 824 large ), all on the verde. #7 CHAMPAGNE CAMIE ( cross entered yesterday at Churchill, so check the changes ) has been working decently for today's initial fray.  OFF TURF: 1-2-6-4-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCXRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-8-4.

 

 

Race  3

1.Wicked Mercury

2.Corey Scores

3.Saburai

#3 WICKED MERCURY has partaken in the triple over her last septet, and won this race down at GP the last time she was made available for purchase. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #1 COREY SCORES will be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver with the above, based on the decent 5:1-0-1 mark on the Widener, and ( as we always go back three races ) a nice score in early May. #6 SABURAI has partaken in the superfecta in 6 of his last 8 and is as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:31, DU TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-5-6.

 

Race  4 

1.Endless Crusade 

2.Kant Hurry Love

3.Cara's Nickels 

#6 ENDLESS CRUSADE did the hard fade after a half when starting things out, but barn dos well with second time starters, and although there are no siblings to glean information from, mommy was 14:5-2-2 going short on the sand ( 177K earned ), and daddy was a Grade 3 winner who owned a 3:2-0-1 record going short. One more shot in a race lacking any superstars. #7 KANT HURRY LOVE is a firster by one of our favorite sires ( Kantharos ) who owns a fat 395 Tomlinson figure for today's distance of ground, and although the dam's P.P.'s left a lot to be desired, the aforementioned father was a poyfect three for three, and the maternal grandsire was a three time G1 winner in Langfuhr, who made nearly 700 big ones. #5 CARA'S NICKELS is a moderately bred FTS'er who can land a share.

 

 

Race  5

1.Kikkerland

2.Sixteen Tons

3.G C Cam 

#4 KIKKERLAND showed absolutely zippo in his first start for Joseph, but as this one had progressed in his quartet of outings to begin his career, you'd have to figure there'd be a clunker at some point in time. Chance to make amends here w/Irad returning. #8 SIXTEEN TONS ( a 1947 piece, sung by Tennessee Ernie Ford, which you can here right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRh0QiXyZSk ) is another coming in off a clunker, but 4YO has a few decent running lines & is eligible to rebound. #11 G C CAM hasn't seen the scene in one year to the day, but posted a couple'a decent figaros in both starts to date, and now finds himself at his lowest level to date while returning sans tes-tee-klees. 9% bossman on a decent 11:2-2-4-3 string on Big Sandy since 9/26/18. 

 

Race  6 

1.Bar Fourteen

2.Cotton

3.Danzigwiththestars

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #10 BAR FOURTEEN showed precipitous improvement from his first turf start to the next, and while he mat have outran his pedigree that day, even a mild regression in this spot makes him a major contender, as Saez takes over for the injured Carmouche. No worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit. #7 COTTON came along solidly to snag 20% of the pot when returning off a bit of a hibernation, and despite the snappy effort, is now in "need" of Lasix for the first time. #6 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS was a mite flat in the return, but can move forward with that under his girthstrap.  OFF TURF: 1-4-7-6-14(MTO)

 

 

Race  7

1.Trinni Luck

2.Laura's Bellamy

3.Vienna Code

#1 TRINNI LUCK was in the back half of the field when coming back after a six month break in the action, but like we mentioned earlier, the fact that Manny Man comes back after the disappointment, says to us that perhaps this one is more geared up for a goodie in today's 2nd off the L/O try. Note that according to DRF Formulator, Rudy Rod is 9:3-2-0-3 when adding eye cups for the first time to his allowance dirt stock ( $8, $5 & $9 ). #8 LAURA'S BELLAMY was a lively and nicely clear runner up when getting caught late in the game in a near identical spot on the 22nd of May, & is logical once again. #6 VIENNA CODE picked up a decent check when completing the triple in a state bred stakes deal 18 days ago, and we'll slide in to spice things up. 

 

Race  8 

1.Veteran's Beach

2.Scocciatore

3.Wild William 

#4 VETERANS BEACH hasn't been in action since late September, but Clement charge has been ITM in both starts off a respite, with one of those being beneath Rosario. Slight edge. #5 SCOCCIATORE lit up the tote board when grinding out a $45 win in a career best performance two fortnights back, and as we consider this a drop in class, there's no reason a repeat isn't well with this one's grasp. #3 WILD WILLIAM was "unprepared" when last facing the starter back in December, so you can obviously draw a line through that, but 6 1/2 months is still a long time, so despite the two wins prior to that, it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock pre race.  OFF TURF: 10-5-6-2-4

 

 

Race  9 

1.Panster

2.Brazillionaire

3.Made My Day ( Ire )

#1 PANSTER obviously found the drop to his liking last time out, as he lived up to his 7-5 billing in snagging the sheepskin for C-Squared on the inner. Gelding will need to work out a pocket trip from today's inside slot, and while a regression is always feasible off a 1st off the L/O / 1st time Lasix / lifetime best figaro, we'd be silly to exclude. #10 BRAZILLIONAIRE has been a completely different equine since switching surfaces ( four I.T.M. finishes from as many tries on the turf ), and is a must use, despite Linda Rice ( who's license revocation is pending an appeal in court ) being on an 0-10 run of late. #4 MADE MY DAY (IRE) is 4:1-0-0-1 off a layoff and seventh different jock in his last seven outings is a solid one in Saez.  OFF TURF: 2-4-10-6-1

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  49-311     ( $351.50 )  Beatable Favorites    7-20    ( 35% )  Favorites   Win %:    119-311  ( 38.3% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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