SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 6/19
  
  

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 Just one chalky winner yesterday on a day with a quartet of 'em.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 6/19

 

Race  1

1.Double Happiness

2.Sengekontacket

3.Better With Age

#5 DOUBLE HAPPINESS hasn't shown her muzzle since procuring the diploma a couple'a Thanksgivings ago, but gal ( who owns a placing on the Inner ) will be led over by a chap who's won with half of his maiden claiming turf stayers who got their first win 68+ days ago ( $6, $11, $4, $29 & $7 ), and there's a sub category 3-4 with Junior in the saddle. #2 SENGEKONTACKET is a nose shy of a poyfect two fer two when coming off a break in the action, and they both came in three times she was made available for purchase ( with the other being a showing ). #11 BETTER WITH AGE is backed by a 3 for 10 trainer stat which has S. Klesaris at just that with 3rd off the L/O turf touters at this level ( 19-67 days ), with healthy mutuels of $14, $20 & $9.  OFF TURF: 10-4-7-6-1(MTO)

 

Race  2

1.Dust Devil 

2.Yankee Division

3.Arham

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #5 DUST DEVIL always seems to give a good account of himself ( in the super over his last octet ) and gets some serious jockey upgrade this afternoon. Mixed signals here with the barn on a rotten oh-fer-32 run. #6 YANKEE DIVISION is another steady Eddie who appears to be the clear speed of this deal & found the line first in his only start off the bench on a fast track. #3 ARHAM ran to his 222 turf Tomlinson when finishing in the back half of the field a bit more than a month ago ( not sure what Pletcher was thinking ), and is now switched back to his preferred surface; no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. 

 

Race  3

1.Flower Point

2.Cost Benefit ( GB )

3.Katama Moonlight

#2 FLOWER POINT showed zilch in an off the turf event a half month back, but is third off the layoff today, and has a decent overall body of work. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 COST BENEFIT (GB) went coast to coast like butter and toast in her sole start on the George Widener turf course & is eligible to rebound in tod's second start off the shelf. #4 KATAMA MOONLIGHT has a boatload of speed & is a touch better on firm ground than that with some give to it, so we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 4-1-6-7-2

 

Race  4 

1.Hohohoho

2.Ocean Air

3.L'Indiscret

Backers of #1 HOHOHOHO found coal in their stockings after Morley charge got set down against similar type on the 14th of May, but despite the DQ, has improved with each passing turf start ( at increasingly higher levels ), and aforementioned shotcaller is a snappy 18:7-0-4 with allowance runners who hit the board < 68 days ago going long on the lawn ( 13-1 or undah ), with a $2.65 ROI in that regards. #2 OCEAN AIR was a lively runner up at this level last time out, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #4 L'INDISCRET went from zero to hero to pick up the diploma on the dropdown at the end of April, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-8

 

Race  5

1.Combination

2.Sicilia Mike

3.Runaway Lute

#9 COMBINATION has been a model of consistency over the last 16 months ( 13:8-2-2 ) & has been transferred out of a 9% barn into one that's 2 1/2 times better for today's New York debut. Completely logical. #3 SICILIA MIKE has never been entered this cheaply, & his last tally came underneath today's pilot. Nibbler by rote has some okay in Elmont ( 15:2-7-3 ). #6 RUNAWAY LUTE ( 4 for 9 at BEL compared to being 1 for 18 otherwise ) is another who's yet to see these depths and owns a 4:1-1-1 in second off the bench engagements. 

 

Race  6 

1.Ava's Grace

2.Beach Banker

3.Lot of Honey

#10 AVA'S GRACE has yet to finish off the board, owns a touch of back class, and 24% Diodoro more than doubles that rate ( 6 of 12 ) with sod sprinters in the 47-67 day bracket @ 11-1 or beneath ( $6 x 2, $16, $7, $14 & $8 ). #11 BEACH BANKER is better bred for the green than the brown, and some of those dirt running lines ain't half bad. Penn National rider comes in for the mount once again, and of course, we dig the draw. #9 LOT OF HONEY was confidently hiked up in class for her secondary start, and Jimmy Ferraro was proven correct, as this one ( who was getting blinks & front wraps for the first ) got up in time to best maidens at 15-1. Barn hadn't won with a 2nd timer in quite some time, so like the ill fated Prospect Mountain ( who won at first asking ), it should pique your interest a bit.  OFF TURF: 5-6-1-7-2  NOTE: AS OF 10:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  7

1.Street Copper

2.Attentive 

3.Vettori Kin ( Brz ) ( AE )

#8 STREET COPPER has had a bout of seconditis of late, but in all fairness, has run to -- or better than -- his parimutual offering over the last troika, and should be a majah playah here. #5 ATTENTIVE has a nice overall "declining" mark of 21:6-2-1, and chestnut fella owns a nice mark @ today's distance of ground as well. #11 VETTORI KIN (BRZ) (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that be the case, would be toting along a decent overall body of work, as well as the meet's leading pilot.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-9-5  NOTE: AS OF 10:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Joycee Haz Pizzaz

2.My First Grammy 

3.Risk Profile

#3 JOYCEE HAZ PIZZAZ shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach for a runner who's scored in four of her last six, and seems to dig the scenery here ( 3:2-1-0 ). You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to this one's last quartet of speed figures, and while that ascension won't last forever, we see no reason to exclude. #10 MY FIRST GRAMMY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has always been a bit of a fringe player, but is okay at this locale & closed out the exacta in her sole start when last to load; we like her ability to send or rate just a bit. #6 RISK PROFILE was a visually impressive victress right here on the seventh of May, and the runner up from that day got her picture taken when next facing the starter. Could prove to be a good claim by Weaver. 

 

Race  9 

1.Ocala Dream

2.Dancing Buck

3.Step Dancer

#4 OCALA DREAM has gotten better and better and better since beginning his working life last year, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Effinex colt is 2:1-0-1 on this course, and we're seeing 8-1 as an overlay for today's third start off the hiatus. #2 DANCING BUCK jumped from a 70 to an 82 from his 1st turf attempt to the next, and the 3rd place horse in the allowance win got the job done when next in action. Gelding catches firm ground for the first time and appears to have plenty of upside. #13 STEP DANCER was taken eight wide in a field with that many on May 13th ( Nurse !! ), and doesn't figure to get the best of trips once again. We'll include tho, because other than the post L/O try, this one has always been right there.  OFF TURF: 13-7-6-2-1

 

Race  10

1.Queentigua

2.Lady Normandy

3.Bella Domenica

#9 QUEENTIGUA is beginning to approach "professional maiden" status, but has been given a bit of a freshening by Pringle, which is of a bit of relevance, as one of this gal's two starts off a hibernation resulted in a placing with an adj. BSF of 57.1 ( which fits with these ). Although this one doesn't appear to get the pulse racing, keep in mind that she finished in the first half of the field in her seven starts just prior to the layoff ( outrunning her odds in each ). Decent longshot in a suspect allotment. #1 LADY NORMANDY was a solid runner up at this level a month back & is sensible addition here. #6 BELLA DOMENICA drops to an all time low off a race that we think was intended to throw potential suitors off the trail, as this one is awfully bred for verde. Interesting to see Irad lean this way over 'Normandy. 

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  50-320     ( $358.70 )  Beatable Favorites    7-20    ( 35% )  Favorites   Win %:    123-320  ( 38.4% ) ( As of Saturday morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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