SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 7/9 - Closing Week


Closing week here, as we look for some "mo" heading up north.  

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #12 Sweet Larissa

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 7/9 - Closing Week


Race  1

1.Fair Catch

2.Variant Perception

3.Bourbon Mission

#4 FAIR CATCH gets a big time trainer upgrade from a 4% shotcaller to a 29% outfit, and four year old has win two of his last three when made available for purchase, including a rare maiden breaker against winners. Slight edge in a wide open opener to closing week. #3 VARIANT PERCEPTION hasn't faced the starter since September, but has a fair 4:1-0-1-1 mark off "true" turf layoffs, and has been a part of the superfecta in all three starts on the Widener. #6 BOURBON MISSION has been away for nearly the full length of a calendar, but Jose is enticed to ride, and could be coming late with any tempo in front of him.   OFF TURF: 2-3-7(MTO)-6-1/1A (MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-5-2.


Race  2

1.Supreme Aura

2.Extrodinary Jerry

3.Dark Storm

#2 SUPREME AURA has done some nice work since being reclaimed by Rudy Rod back in January, cashing four straight checks while garnering his first win at Big Sandy. From a small sampling, trainer is three of seven with locally based dirt stock who won 51-59 days back & are 4-1 or less ( $4, $8 & $6 ). #6 EXTRORDINARY JERRY has bested but two in his last troika of spaced out starts, but six year old "horse" ( incorrectly listed as a colt ) is halved in price today and Joel sees fit to take the call. #5 DARK STORM as good as any for the show dough in a race with no first draft exclusions.  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET & A SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-2-3.



Race  3

1.Love And Thunder ( Ire ) 

2.Made In Italy ( Ire )

3.Star Command

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #2 LOVE AND THUNDER (IRE) has closed out the exacta in both North American starts to date, and the show horse in the most recent got her picture taken next time out, essentially replicating her speed figure from the prior start. Will take some pounding at the windows, but should be no worse than third for all you show punters out there. #1 MADE IN ITALY (IRE) overcame a boatload of trouble in her local bow to get 3rd place money a month back, and 4YO is now in receipt of the wonder drug for the first time. #3 STAR COMMAND ( like most Shug runners ) is seemingly getting better with time, and we see no reason to exclude. OFF TURF: 1-2-7(MTO)-6-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO SCRATCHES & THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-5-7.


Race  4 

1.Resilient Courage



#7 RESILIENT COURAGE hasn't shown much in the morning for today's first afternoon trek to the frontside, but late foal is a half to Courageous Girl, who's 18:2-4-1 ( 178K ) & is one for two at today's distance of ground. #6 SUNDAESWITHSANDY had the screws tightened by Rodriguez in the most recent work ( 48 flat from the gate ), and brings along a decent 353 Tomlinson for today's debut. #3 BOINTHEBACK has a bullet gate move on the docket, and cheaply bred runner would be no surprise. 



Race  5

1.Wish for Magic 

2.Happy Hill Lil

3.April Antics

#5 WISH FOR MAGIC has been freshened up a bit since outrunning her 38-1 offering on the sod back in April, and returns with a feather & a slight drop as well. 10% outfit is a snappy 4 for 9 with maiden claiming dirt sprinters off breaks of 51-107 days, and the payoffs for that survey were $13, $9 x 2 & $8. #8 HAPPY HIL LIL has been awful in the last pair, but we like to look anywhere in a maiden's P.P.'s to find something positive ( as they're winless for a reason, you know, and this one had a couple of solid efforts right here last year. #9 APRIL ANTICS was a touch tardy to the party when beginning her professional career at the end of May, but the crisp workout just prior to that tells us this one is eligible to show better.  NOTE: AS OF 11:54, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-9-10.


Race  6 

1.Mo Ready

2.Emaraart ( GB ) 

3.Price Talk

#2 MO READY is a perfect two for two in second off the layoff turf starts going over firm ground, and has that same record going a mile. Just one of those wins overlaps, so that makes him three for three in twp pertinent categories. Factor in that one of those tallies came when switching from green to brown, and you have the looks of a live runner. #6 EMARAATY (GB) is two for four off the shelf, and is reacquainted with blinkers this afternoon, and this one posted a lifetime best Timeform in one of his two starts w/ eye cups. #1A PRICE TALK had no palpable excuse for the flop on 6/5, but we'll accord him a chance to make amends.  OFF TURF: 1-1A-2-8-5(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-5-8.



Race  7


2.Too Early

3.I Love Jaxson

#6 DANEBURY was a daylight clear third when nicely spotted after the claim, and posted a lifetime best figaro that afternoon. Saez heating up a touch of late, and lightly raced eight year old excels at today's dist. ( 7:3-0-2 ). Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #4 TOO EARLY has hit the board over his last sextet, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #7 I LOVE JAXSON has a schnoz for the line ( 30:8-1-2 ) and has done good work in this zip code as well. As we're seeing this race going through our top two selections, we're relegate this one to the unders. NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. 


Race  8 

1.My Sweet Wife


3.Bramble Queen

#5 MY SWEET WIFE has flopped in the slop in her last to calls to the post, but hung up an adjusted 84.8 in the turf try just before all that, and as a matter of fact, this one has shown improvement over all three of her turf engagements, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #4 KILKEA was a runner up in the sole "3rd off the respite" deal, and the 4:2-2-0 ledger at today's dx., aids the cause as well. #9 BRAMBLE QUEEN has that nice "declining" record that we love so much ( 32:9-5-2 ) as it shows she has a scnoz for the line, and Dini charge has won one of two off of this kind of L/O scenario. Don't discount.  OFF TURF: 2-7-1-10-13(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-1A-10.



Race  9 


2.Cherokee Song

3.Entwine ( Ire )

#5 APPRECIATE played the fade at this level when going short a half month back, and notorious nibbler ( 40:1-8-8 is stretched out by Toscano while having the hood added once again. Recognize that the lone returnee from that heat came back a winnah, and upped her speed figure by 12.2% in the process. #6 CHEROKEE SONG is another with an unappetizing boxscore, but should appreciate the drop today, as this one broke her maiden the last time she was up for sale. #7 ENTWINE (IRE) was curiously placed against older males 19 days back, and is now 20% lower than the price claimed two back.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8(MTO)-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:10, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-7-1.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 SWEET LARISSA


Belmont            ( Current ):  63-415     ( $450.60 )  Beatable Favorites    7-26   ( 26.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    156-415 ( 37.6% ) ( As of Tuesday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout