SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 7/10
  
  

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Took it on the chin on another mess of a day, yesterday. Hoping for perfect weather upstate this summer !! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 7/10

Race  1

1.Any Minute

2.Flip the Script

3.Piqua

#3 ANY MINUTE was in the rear with the gear first time out, but the turf breeze up at Oklahoma wasn't half bad, and Rudy does well when adding the blinkers, which is on the agenda for today. Turf pedigree stinks, but sometimes speed can carry a weak runner a long way, and perhaps this one can improve a bit on the 22 & 3 first time out. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #7 FLIP THE SCRIPT has a nicely hidden 48 & 4 morning move for today's initial foray, and barn has improved with firsters over the recent years. This one is a full to a runner who's Beyered between 57 & 68 in her maiden starts, and any figure like that could make an impression versus this unproven allotment. #6 PIQUA is showing a bullet breeze on the Fair Hill synthetic for the bow, and we always feel that translates nicely.  OFF TURF: 7-8-9-2(MTO)-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Summer Bourbon

2.Financialstability

3.Cause of Action

#2 SUMMER BOURBON outran his 59-1 offering when closing out the superfecta at a slightly higher level than this 22 days ago, and while not in great form over the last quintet, has historically fared weill at this dx., and the BSF from the aforementioned races is comparable to several signed on. #1 FINANCIALSTABILITY has never seen these depths, and could perk up a bit. #4 CAUSE OF ACTION has been out of "action" for four months, but gelding is another finding himself at an all time low, and now picks up Franco; digs the track as well, and can factor if sound and fully cranked up. NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Caramocha

2.Destinationwnrscir

3.Sweeter

#4 CARAMOCHA was ambitiously spotted in the most recent, and the result was to be expected -- especially after smacking into the starting apparatus at the onset. Gal is back in with state breds, and rates an upset chance if able to get back to that penultimate effort. #5 DESTINATIONWNRSCIR didn't display a whole heck of a lot when trying the gramma at the end of April, but filly had never missed the superfecta in four dirt tries before that, and gal -- who's been firing off bullets -- picks up Rosario for the comebacker. #2 SWEETER gave a good account of herself when facing victresses for the first time, ( completing the triple at 16-1 ), and we'll chunk her in for the third off the layoff deal. 

 

Race  4 

1.Water's Edge

2.King Angelo

3.Tivoli Twirl

#2 WATER'S EDGE all the way. #1 KING ANGELO is a four year old facing mostly younger competition here, and we like the grittiness this one has shown in each start to date -- including when hitting the gate at the start in one ( which seems to happen quite often here ). Chestnut chap nearly went all the way in the only main track go round, and the 3rd/5th place finishers from that heat got their photos taken when next in action. Mainger danger to the above. #3 TIVOLI TWIRL ( recently removed from Bob Baffert's Baked Beans Barn ) was an honest fourth in his first off the L/O local jammie, and is eligible to move forward with that under his girthstrap.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-2-8.

 

Race  5

1.Stimulus Check

2.Beautiful Karen

3.Trinni Luck

#4 STIMULUS CHECK hasn't been in action since October ( a disappointing stakes effort ), so obviously things went amiss sometime after the October 27th work, as they don't give too many vacations in this game. The good news tho, is that the Matties' are good horsemen, and wouldn't bring back a short or sore animal. We remember this one's bow ( when taking a boatload of baccala ), as she won in a visually impressive performance, and it would behoove you to watch the board here. #3 BEAUTIFUL KAREN has lost ground in the lane in her last troika, but has enough speed to land a share. #1 TRINNI LUCK displayed an improved effort when having the hood affixed, and should be left in the hopper once again.   NOTE: AS OF 11:54, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Coragescontender

2.Bad Guy

3.Our Man Mike

#2 CORAGESCONTENDER got up in time to best mid level platers on this course a little less than two months in the rear, and given that this one's sole other turf dash resulted in a mere two length loss at 58-1, who's to say this one hasn't found his new niche'. Upgrade in the jockey dept. today with Junior taking over for Luzzi duly noted. #4 BAD GUY was positively awful at 5-2 last time out, but given the decent two honest efforts just prior to that, we'll give this nibbler ( 49:3-10-12 ) another shot at double digit odds. #7 OUR MAN MIKE has yet to finish out of the top four, and who are we to rock that boat for this decently bred runner taking his first spin on the sod.  OFF TURF: 10-5-6-2-15(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Cirona ( GB ) 

2.Gam's Mission

3.Con Lima

#2 CIRONA (GB) ( who has missed the exacta but twice in her octet of outings ), and found the line first the only time she made a left hand turn while going long. This one is a Grade 3 winner & is Grade 1 placed as well, so we think 12-1 is a steal here. Sans the inside horse, there is a dearth of speed entered, and as this one has shown a proclivity to be on or near the lead, who's to say he can't stalk & pounce -- or even try to steal it on the choo choo. #8 GAM'S MISSION shoots for the grand salami today, and it's well within reach, as those wins have come at increasingly higher levels, and distances as well. Will go off as a non favorite for the fifth straight time here & appears to be excellent value. #1 CON LIMA is an extremely consistent sort who can go all the way if able to loaf along on an uncontested lead.  OFF TRURF: 8-4-7-2-1

 

Race  8 

1.Ova Charged

2.Souper Sensational

3.Miss Brazil 

#4 OVA CHARGED ( cross entered at Monmouth, so check the changes ) is a Louisiana bred coming to New York after a win in Jersey, and given this one has gone all the way in both starts to date, we're wondering why he's 10-1 M.L.; going with the old adage of "Never discount an undefeated runner at more than 3-1 here, and a win ensures a bevy of extra Star Guitar commercials. #5 SOUPER SENSATIONAL had a bunch of trouble when going one turn on the dirt for the first time at CD, and as she won both poly sprints, we see no reason to disclude at a solid offering. #3 MISS BRAZIL has been in the money in all her starts, and you can even forgive the recent showing a bit, as she broke through the gate pre start. 

 

Race  9 

1.Hidden Enemy

2.Safe Conduct

3.Cellist

#9 HIDDEN ENEMY is listed as the longest shot in the field here, but in all honesty, doesn't appear to be that much worse than several signed on, and the adjusted figure from two back ( 85.7 )could at the very least make a bit of an impression with these. Not hopeless, and Looie heating up a touch. #3 SAFE CONDUCT is 3:2-1-0 over the green stuff, and as he's gone 67-75-87 on such, the sky's the limit, baby ! #8 CELLIST has done very little wrong to date ( a nose shy of having won his last three ), and this boy has gone "last to first" and "all the way".  OFF TURF: 1-3-9-7-2

 

Race  10

1.Big Castle

2.Ranger Fox

3.Deregulation ( GB )

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #7 BIG CASTLE starts out his career this afternoon, and does such with a bullet gate breeze in tow -- which always piques our interest for a firster. This is the first foal out of a dam who didn't show much on the verde, but paternal granddaddy was a poyfect two of two over the stuff, and that one's mating partner in this family tree was two for two going one turn on the lawn. Good to see T-Gaff take the call for a winless ( 0-26 ) shedrow. #3 RANGER FOX has been a lively & decently clear runner up in both turf starts, and is a deserving chalk. #11 DEREGULATION (GB) hung up an OK # in the turf bow, and gets some betterment in the saddle for today's followup. 

 

Race  11

1.Rejected Again

2.Mandate

3.Noblem Thought

#5 REJECTED AGAIN hasn't done much to get the heart thumping in the last duet, but we like to go three starts back to find somethin positive, and that crisp effort on May the second is snazzy enough to toss this one in. Colt is a neck shy of having a three fer five ledger in his last quintet when up for sale. #4 MANDATE is another where you'd have to go three back for some positivity, but if you can see your way clear of the last duet, then maybe the 4YO can jazz things up on the dropdown. #11 NOBLE THOUGHT closes out the card.  OFF TURF: 4-1(MTO )-9-6-3

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  63-424     ( $450.60 )  Beatable Favorites    7-27   ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    160-424 ( 37.7% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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