SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/16
  
  

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Solid opening day for us here yesterday, as we had the following:

--Two winners of $25.60 & $2.40 ( along with a placing at 18-1 & four show finishes -- two at 30-1 & 15-1 )

--A Rolling Pick 5 of $5,084 ( 50 cents )

--A Rolling Pick 4 of $636

--Five Rolling Pick 3's of $83, $511, $1,519, $353 & $81

--Six Rolling Doubles of $27, $170, $294, $29, $10 & $96

--Five Exacta Boxes of $64,$38, $30, $17 & $60 ( and an Ice Cold one of $96 )

--A Triple Box of $220

--And for those who could afford the $729 bet, a Rolling Pick 6 of $87,742 along with 12 consos totaling $5,496

 

Thanks to all for the kind words on Twitter, but more importantly, thanks to those who donated to Old Friends at Cabin Creek.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #5 Tough Street


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 7/16

 

Race  1

1.Gun It

2.Shashashakemeup

3.Smooth B 

#4 GUN IT was a gamely and well clear runner up when last in action down in Louisville, and not only did this one complete the exacta in his only start here last year, but has done decent work beneath Santana as well. Five year is a nibbler by rote, but's facing no world beaters today & should be in the thick of things late in the game. #5 SHASHASHAKEMEUP has a funny name, but monikers aside, got his photo taken the only time he was made available for purchase. Jock upgrade to Irad in store today. #1A SMOOTH B went all the way against what we would consider to be a slightly tougher allotment, and this is another one who has fared well against platers ( two of three ). 

 

 

Race  2

1.Quick Return

2.Clear Humor

3.Arms an Armor

Second half of the early daily double is a tight affair with no first draft eliminations, so we dove into the DRF Formulator platform a bit, and came up with three tidy but tight stats.  #8 QUICK RETURN has improved with each passing start, and despite the elongated absence, came back to finish a lively and daylight clear runner up on the 3rd of July. Jimmy Ferraro ( who you can't ignore up here ) is 4 for 10 with maiden claiming dirt stock who crashed the party less than 26 days back at 11-1 or less ( $19, $11, $6 & $5 ), and there's a sub category when adding "second off the L/O" types. #6 CLEAR HUMOR has been freshened up a bit since disappointing first time out, but takes the biggest drop in the game today, and Weaver has won 2 of 3 when doing that to his second time dirt starters off absences of 51-99 days ( $4 & $7 ). #3 ARMS AN ARMOR will be led over by a shotcaller who's two fer three with 3rd off the respite mdclm. dirt runners fitting these parameters. 

 

Race  3

1.Giacosa

2.Classic Colors

3.Dixie Cannon

#2 GIACOSA has partaken in the superfecta in all her starts but one, and comes in today toting along an uncharacteristic bullet breeze on the worktab. When it comes to his 3rd off the shelf turf stayers off breaks of 1-57 days ( 11-1 or undah ), 007 has the Golden Gun, as he's won five of nine with that type, and the mutuels for that survey were $17, $12, $6 x 2 & $5. There's a sub category of two for three in this zip code, and gal outran her 30-1 offering in her sole third off the shelf jammie. #7 CLASSIC COLORS' attempt at the hat trick was thwarted when facing open foes on May 28th, but is 3:2-0-1 at today's dist., and deserves a chance to make amends. #1 DIXIE CANNON hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but ( from a Beyer perspective ) was heading in the right direction when last in action, and rates a chance if sound & fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 1-5(MTO)-7-4-2

 

Race  4 

1.Endless front

2.Flaming Rouge

3.Angelou

#2 ENDLESS FRONT was a bit rank in the most recent, so The Toddster sees fit to affix the eye cups today, while enlisting the services of Ricardo, with whom he's 4 for his last 9 w/routers ( $3, $8, $15 & $12 ). Furthermore ( and heretofore ), shedrown is 3-7 with Toga based maiden special weight turfers going long that were OTB 17 to 67 days in the rear ( $6, $9 & $15 ). #5 FLAMING ROUGE has gamely placed in both North American starts to date and we see no reason to exclude. #7 ANGELOU ( uncoupled entrymate with our top selection ) has yet to finish out of the triple, and is in a "second off the bench/second time Lasix" spot this afternoon; totally logical.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-8-6

 

Race  5

1.Annika Gold

2.Absolute Love

3.Mongolian Humor

#3 ANNIKA GOLD was spotted in a position where she was unable to be claimed after the purchase two back, and she responded with a decent third place finish down in Maryland. Gelding is now placed at the prior level, and history tells us this one is 8:1-4-1-1 when going 1X to 2X, so we're expecting a solid performance for a barn who doesn't ship many up here. #5 ABSOLUTE LOVE was a snappy victress against similar type at Indiana on June 28th ( her second two turn win in a row ), and as she's already recouped the bread from three back, connex have no problems putting the "For Sale" tag on her rump this afternoon. #8 MONGOLIAN HUMOR overcame a slow onset to pick up the second place check vs. $10,000 competitors down in BEL a half'a month back and can land a share.

 

 

Race  6 

1.November Rein

2.Let Her Inspire U

3.Succulent

#7 NOVEMBER REIN was a dead game & nicely clear runner up when beginning her working life down at Big Sandy two fortnights back, and we like that she's shown a crisp breeze since then. When it comes to his second time starters going short on the sand at this level, Breen gets the green, as he doubles his normative 18% batting average ( 4-11 ) w/returns of $3 x 2, $6 & $9. Grab her by the tail to glory with a switch to a stronger finisher in Jose today. #2 LET HER INSPURE YOU went for a whopping 22X the $22,500 stud fee at auction back in March, and is showing a crisp gate move for today's overture. Runner is a half to Jamaica Joy ( 3:1-0-1 ), with that one's sire being this one's paternal grandsire; not hopeless. #3 SUCCULENT has a nicely hidden bullet breeze over at Oklahoma on the ledger for today's initial trek to the frontside, and needn't be much to make an impression in the lower rungs here.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 TOUGH STREET

 

Race  7

1.Zia'a Song

2.Mused ( GB )

3.Mumbai

#8 ZIA'S SONG has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but gal is one for three when going short on the sod, and the adjusted figaro from said tally would be enough to make a major impression here. The obvious question is soundness, so take a peek in the paddock. Meek selection in a wide open deal. #6 MUSED (GB) showed stark improvement in her 2nd start in the States, and did so despite acting like a kangaroo at the onset. Eligible to do even better with a clean break. #3 MUMBAI has been a different animal this year ( 3-3 in the exacta ) and gets some improvement in the irons with a switch to a slightly heating up Saez.  OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-3-6-7-1(MTO)

 

 

Race  8 

1.Kandy Ginger

2.Greatest Love

3.Patty H

#2 KANDY GINGER started out his career on a sweet note, winning her first three starts in the southwest, but returned off the layoff to flop in the slop, then showed absolutely nothing when going over the blades for the 1st time. Those "efforts" can't be automatically tossed because of the L/O & surface conditions, because maybe this one has just went south a little bit, but it's encouraging to see a good trainer statistic in play. Over the last 60 months, the "As-Man" is a tight 5:2-3-0 when going green to brown with his mid level sprinters in the 11-57 day bracket ( while putting them in for a tag for the first time ), & the winners came back $17 & $4. We like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment/medication change off a decent effort, and Amoss sees fit to add the eye cups to #7 GREATEST LOVE after a placing at IND, while enlisting the services of Irad. #8 PATTY H is but a half length shy of a two fer two mark in 2nd off the bench affairs, and won her lone try when beginning from the two outermost slots. 

 

Race  9 

1.Delaware ( GB )

2.Value Proposition ( GB )

3.Sacred Life ( Fr ) 

#7 DELAWARE (GB) bested half the field when going up against slightly weaker in Elmont about seven weeks back, but overcame an extremely wide sojourn to score in the trip just before that, and earned a solid BSF in the process. Highest price of the three headed monster by Brown rates a good shot if able to get back to that effort, and rates a slight edge. #3 VALUE PROPOSITION (GB) is one of three signed on that Franco has gotten the boot off of ( I. Ortiz hops on ), and this one is toting along a lifetime best # for today's first try on the Saratoga Inner. #9 SACRED LIFE (FR) completes the all C.B. triple based on his two placings on this oval as well as the smart three for five mark at today's distance of ground.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9

 

 

Race  10

1.Kreesa La Wrote

2.U Should Be Dancing

3.Baudi Moovan

#8 KREESA LA WROTE had a nightmarish trip in this race three weeks past, but Donk charge has gone 47-46-61-60 in her turf sprints thus far, so is clearly figuring things out a bit. Would like to have seen a jockey change after said race, but we'll give her one more chance; should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #4 U SHOULD BE DANCING ( Got some Bee Gees for y'all right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xI68A-rntIk ) has closed out the exacta in all three turf tries and is now in receipt of the "Wonder drug" for the first time. Seems to be the lone threat to the above. #1 BAUDI MOOVAN ( an alias for Deanna Thompson, who investigated a heinous crime ) had the screws tightened with a nice workout last Friday and given the pedigree/auction price, could be any kind.  OFF TURF: 1-5-4-7-2

 

Saratoga          ( Current ): 2-10         ( $26 )        Beatable Favorites    N/A                 Favorites Win %:        3-10     ( 30% )  

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )  Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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