SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 7/11 - Closing Day
  
  

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Just about a breakeven day for us here yesterday. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 7/11 - Closing Day

 

Race  1

1.Lokoya Road

2.Profusion

3.Michael's Bad Boy

#6 LOKOYA ROAD has the best overall body of work in the field, and overcame some trouble to close out the triple in his only "3rd off the layoff" attempt. Note that the place horse from the most recent got the job done next time out. Looms a short price. #5 PROFUSION is one of three in dirt dashes over a glib surface, and finds himself at his lowest level to date while having been gelded since the last. #3 MICHAEL'S BAD BOY is another who's never seen these depths, and could perk up with today's surface switch. 

 

Race  2

1.Charlee O

2.Champagne Camie

3.Continentalcongres

#1 CHARLEE O has shown absolutely nada in the mornings for today's first afternoon trip to the frontside, and although this is the first foal out of an unraced dam, there are some good things going on in the family tree. Father banked more than a million clams on the lawn in going 13:5-2-3 ( while winning his only one turn turf event ) and the paternal granddam was 8:1-1-1 on the poly, which we feel translates to the turf well. #2 CHAMPAGNE CAMIE put forth an honest showing first time out, but may have outran her pedigree a bit that day, so be leery of the short price. #8 CONTINENTALCONGRES has a maturity edge over the rest of the allotment, and owns some decent turf pedigree.  OFF TURF: 5-4-7-9-2

 

Race  3

1.Out of Sight

2.Constitutionalrage

3.Road to Remember

#1 OUT OF SIGHT displayed little in the bow, but isn't particularly well bred for a wet track, so we'll give her a chance to make amends over a glib surface -- while being in receipt of the miracle drug for the 1st time; mild choice in a race with but one first draft elimination. #2 CONSTITUTIONALRAGE is curiously spotted on the sand after being claimed out of a solid placing on the gramma 17 days back, and although the dirt debut left a lot to be desired, she was a'stumblin & a'bumblin at the onset, and being a Constitution out of a Tiznow mare, we can see some improvement off of that. #4 ROAD TO REMEMBER loses the hood and goes from Cancel to Vargas. 

 

Race  4 

1.Sidd Finch

2.Fame to Famous

3.Elston

#6 SIDD FINCH hasn't been in action since turkey time, but pre layoff pilot returns ( which is always a positive ), and six year old had a decent quartet of outings just before the sabbatical. Another slight edge in another tight heat. #4 FAME TO FAMOUS is in decent form these days, and went coast to coast like butter on toast in the lone route on this course ( beneath today's pilot as well ). As usual, you'll get some value here. #1A ELSTON ran to his backing when returning off a break the full length of the calendar to get the diploma on the Widener, and for all his efforts, ended up in a new barn afterwards. While a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-6-5

 

Race  5

1.Ananroad

2.Tiberius Mercurius

3.Big Package

#1 ANANROAD bested cheaper when going all the way beneath Odhair Mayta down at Mountaineer a month back, and aforementioned pilot ( who was once offered to us during out agenting days ) sees fit to make the trek to The Big Apple. Not a lot of speed signed on, and despite the hike in class, who's to say a repeat isn't doable? #9 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS gets a little bit of relief this afternoon, and the last time he was at today's level, he split a field of seven behind THREE next out winners, and a few positions in front of another one. Watch out, suckahs !  #6 BIG PACKAGE faces open foes for the first time today, but comes in off a sharp score, and is but a nose shy of having a two for two record beneath Cardenas.  OFF TURF: 6-3-2-7-9

 

Race  6 

1.Bon Raison

2.Wicked Trick

3.Jalen Journey

#3 BON RAISON was mercifully given a respite after getting walloped in four straight stakes attempts, but there are some good points for potential backers to hang their hats on here. 1-The four for nine mark in Elmont...2-The two for three record at the trip...3-The score in his lone "true" dirt start after a break in the action over a fast track...and 4-The 2:1-0-1 record outside of stakes company interspersed amidst the aforementioned defeats. #2 WICKED TRICK is on a 3:2-0-1 streak when made available for purchase, and consistent sort deserves your respect. #1 JALEN JOURNEY completes the "blastoff" triple based on the recent win under similar circumstances and a decent third in his sole "3rd off the bench" deal. 

 

Race  7

1.Bella Sofia

2.Harper's in Charge

3.Fierce Lady

#4 BELLA SOFIA ( cross entered yesterday, so check the scratch board ) was a dead game runner up behind Australasia in a listed stakes here about five weeks past, and comnes into this race as an "omnifig" ( "As rare as the ivory billed woodpecker." ), in such that all ( both ) his figures superseded anything that anyone in the race has put up to date. Will take some pounding at the windows, but appears too tough to down. #1 HARPER'S IN CHARGE hasn't been in action since blitzing maidens at The Big A back in the fall, and given the natural progression expected with maturing ( as well as getting Lasix for the first time ), this one has a shot to make some noise if fully cranked up. #3 FIERCE LADY always gives an honest account of herself, and is a solid "unders" candidate. 

 

Race  8 

1.Mutamakina ( GB )

2.Virgina Joy ( Ger )

3.Delta's Kingdom

#2 MUTAMAKINA (GB) took the overland route in the G2 New York, and gets a jock upgrade to Rosario in this spot, which is fine by us, as they rallied nicely together to close out the tri when racing in America for the first time. 3-1 is just a tad short for our liking, and will hope for a point more. #5 VIRGINIA JOY (GER) lost by less than a length the only time she was in a third off the bench spot ( & a $588K race, no less ) and got her Polaroid taken the only time she went over firm ground. Logical. #7 DELTA'S KINGDOM is a nibbler by nature, but did okay the only time she was in tandem with Looie, and can complete the Newcastle/Sauerkraut/Hot Dog tri.  OFF TURF: 3-5-4-2-8(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Queentigua

2.Happy Hill Lil ( AE )

3.Grace in Motion

Wide, wide finale on tap, so we'll swing away !  #12 QUEENTIGUA gave us quite the thrill on June 19th, when grabbing the lead mid stretch at 53-1, before getting passed by a couple late in the game. The lone turf try didn't due much to get the pulse racing, but this one is a sprinter -- not a stayer, and mommy was 1 for 3 in turf dashes, with said score coming to the tune of $127 !! #13 HAPPY HILL LIL (AE) needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but should that come to bear in today's initial turf try, would be bringing along a pedigree that had daddy at 5:1-0-1 in turf dashes, his maternal grandmommy at 6:1-2-1 on firm ground, the maternal grandsire at 2:1-0-1 on the poly, and her "husband" showing a 3:1-1-1 ledger doing the same. Worthy of a shot. #5 GRACE IN MOTION closes out our race, card, week, and meet here at Belmont. We thank you very much for your support, and look forward to a productive Saratoga. See ya Thursday.....at the Spaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh !!  OFF TURF: 9-5-3-7-9

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  67-444     ( $534.40 )  Beatable Favorites    7-27   ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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