SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/17
  
  

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Another good day for us here yesterday, as we had the following:

--A grand slam on the win end ( $7, $8, $9 & $5 )

--Two Ice Cold Doubles of $17 & $21

--An Ice Cold $71 Pick Three

--Two Ice Cold Exactas of $14 & $19

--An Ice Cold $7 Quinella

--A successful Beatable Favorite

 

Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the Haskell & United Nations from Monmouth Park, merely go back one page.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #9 Chattalot  Race 7 - #1 Happymac


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 7/17

 

Race  1

1.Martinez

2.Neuro

3.Gonna Be Dancing

#9 MARTINEZ hasn't been seen since mid December, and as they don't give too many vacations in this game, you'd have to think that something went amiss either that day or shortly afterwards. That being said, Shug doesn't run too many short animals, and grey chap overcame a bit of trouble to close out the tri in his lone dash on the Mellon. Miracle drug now a part of the equation, an it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #2 NEURO comes in today off a career best performance, and outran his 46-1 offering in his sole sprint right here; no worse than second for all you place punters out here. #1 GONNA BE DANCING can show some improvement with a clean break.  OFF TURF: 1-2-9-7-6

 

Race  2

1.The Great Dansky

2.Repo Rocks

3.Trash Talker

#1 THE GREAT DANSKY is a bit light from a speed figure perspective, but found the line first in his only start at The Spa, and owns a nice mark at the trip as well. Colt has always been about 10% better on a fast track, so we'll take a swing at a big numero. #5 REPO ROCKS has been a completely different animal over his last quartet, and posted a lifetime best figaro in the maiden breaker 23 days in the rear. Deserving favorite. #7 TRASH TALKER takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged at Elmont last month, and may last for a share. 

 

Race  3

1.Third Draft 

2.Misspell

3.Magisterium ( Ire )

#9 THIRD DRAFT has a nice overall body of work, has done her best work beneath today's pilot, and is backed by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 260 weeks, the 18% shotcaller is a near perfect 4 for 5 with locally based optional turf routers who crashed the party less than three fortnights ago ( Positive ROI ), and there's a sub category of two fer two with Jose in the saddle. #1 MISSPELL has been laid up since snagging the sheepskin at Churchill back in the fall, but returns with Lasix today, and barn has a tight 4:3-1-0 mark with turf stayers at this level off sabbaticals of 70-520 days ridden by Irad. #7 MAGISTERIUM (IRE) has hit the board in 7 of 8 and may be a bit of an overlay in this spot.  OFF TURF: 5(MTO)-3-4(MTO)1-2

 

Race  4 

1.Grape Nuts Warrior 

2.Austrian

3.Matty's Express

We have three solid sets of trainer stats in play here, and as it's 1:37 in the morning, let's get to them directly.  #7 GRAPE NUTS WARRIOR: Brown 9:6-1-1-1 with Saratoga based allowance stock going long on the lawn off L/O's of 42-67 days ( $5 x 2, $4, $3 x 2 & $6 ). #8 AUSTRIAN: Four year old ( who is one for two off a layoff ) will be led over by a shotcaller who's 2 for 5 with allowance routers on the sod who were 1-2-3 53 to 67 days in the rear, and there's a sub category of 2 for2 with Looie astride. #9 MATTY'S EXPRESS: 18% outfit doubles that rate ( 4-11 ) with those of this ilk who partook in the tri when last seen ( $7 x 2, $5 & $6 ).  OFF TURF: 1-2-7-1A-6

 

Race  5

1.Fromanothamutha

2.Detroit City

3.Carpe All Day

#1 FROMANOTHAMUTHA is a $10,000 firster who went for 12 times that amount at Ocala four months back, and is conditioned by an hombre who has a two for six mark with Saratoga firsters in the maiden special weight ranks ( $9 x 2 ). This one is a half to four multiple winners, and we'll nibble at 15-1. #1 DETROIT CITY bested more than half the field at first asking, and is showing a bullet work out of the gate since. That being said, we expect this one to be a bit closer to the pace this time. #6 CARPE ALL DAY lost by just a length three weeks in the rear when starting things out, and can grab a slice of pepperoni.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 CHATTALOT is only 44 days removed from his second birthday & doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 9/5 ?

 

Race  6 

1.Rattle N Roll

2.Never Say Know ( Ire )

3.Commander Compton

#3 RATTLE N ROLL is displaying a nice "Z" pattern from the Louisville overture, when McPeek charge lost two lengths from the quarter to the half before gaining eight lengths from that point to the line ( coming home in 11 & 1 ). Aforementioned shotcaller is a poyfect three for three with 2TS'ers ( at 10-1 or below ) going long on the lawn for the 1st time, who were in the money when debuting 1-50 days ago, and those winners came back $13, $14 & $5. #5 NEVER SAY KNOW (IRE) has blinkers added after lugging in @ IND on 6/24, and is second time Lasix here as well. 9-2 is a bit short, so we're hoping this one will drift up a bit. #6 COMMANDER COMPTON has a couple'a nice morning moves for today's first afternoon trip to the frontside, and gets Cancel, who had a nice turf win for us here on opening day.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-5-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-5-2.

 

Race  7

1.Duress

2.Gear Jockey

3.Guildsman ( Fr ) 

#6 DURESS has been a part of the superfecta in his last octet, and five year old "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy! ) got his Polaroid taken in both pairings with Jose. Slight edge. #8 GEAR JOCKEY has hit the board in both tries off the pine, and Rusty has won with half of his six turf sprinters in the 68 to 86 day zip code at 32-1 or undah ( $8, $15 & $6 ). #7 GUILDSMAN (FR) is trained by a fella who's 5-13 with freshly purchased turf sprinters off breaks of < 68 days ( $4, $11, $9 & $16 x 2 ).   OFF TURF: 2-10-9(MTO)-7-1  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 HAPPYMAC is poorly bred for the gramma, so we'll side against.  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Newbomb

2.Mahaamel

3.Witsel

#3 NEWBOMB has improved with each passing start -- both in a BSF aspect & a finishing point of view -- and after going off as the chalk in the three straight, well be on the better side of 20-1 today. Having said that, we like that Kelly Breen is a snazzy 5 of 10 with allowance dirt stock who burst through the maiden ranks 6-50 days back ( $7, $10, $5, $3 & $8 ). #12 MAHAAMEL has hung up two monster #'s in both calls to the post, but will have to clear from today's outside slot -- or develop a new stalking style. Hard to fault those taking a favorable view. #4 WITSEL was privately purchased after winning by a pole down in Oldsmar seven months back, and gets the big "L" for today's comebacker.  

 

Race  9 

1.Trust Our Journey

2.Wit

3.Candy Landing

#4 TRUST OUR JOURNEY got smacked around a bit at the onset when facing winners for the first time, but still flashed some speed before finishing third in a truncated Tremont. Carlos is a crisp 5:3-1-1 with dirt runners in the 37-50 day bracket who were ITM last out, and are NOT receiving Lasix today ( Positive return on investment ). #1 WIT was extremely impressive when going from zero to hero on Big Sandy ( running the last 3 1/2 furlongs in a zippy 41 2/5th's seconds ), and should appreciate today's extra distance. #2 CANDY LANDING posted the same Beyer speed figure as Wit in winning first time out, but is listed as twice the price on the morning line, and the 384 Tomlinson tells us there's ample room for improvement here. 

 

Race  10

1.Althiqa ( GB )

2.Summer Romance ( Ire )

3.La Signare ( Fr ) 

Featured race of the day is upon us, and for some history on the Diana ( first won by War Regalia in 1939 ), please go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diana_Stakes . As for the race itself, we'll give a slight edge to #8 ALTHIQA (GB). Roan lady has yet to finish off the board, and that includes a two for two record off breaks in the action, as well as being 3/4's of a length short of a three for three record when making a left hand turn. Appleby 3 for 6 with turf routers who won 17-67 days in the past. #6 SUMMER ROMANCE (IRE)( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) finished just behind our top choice in their recent rendezvous, and will look to go all the way once again; barn 4 for 9 with turf stayers who were ITM off of this kind of absence. #1 LA SIGNARE (FR) completes the "Tea/Beer/Wine" tri based on the string effort last time out -- her only one when loading first.  OFF TURF: 6-3-5-4-1

 

Race  11

1.Southern Flag

2.Askin for a Baskin

3.Ducale

#4 SOUTHERN FLAG ( Noooooo, not Colonel Flagg ) has encountered some difficulty in each start, but has garnered a couple of decent BSF's and could get the job done with a tidier sojourn. We dig when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment change after a solid performance, and 'Miah slaps on the hood after the recent placing by #8 ASKIN FOR A BASKIN; Irad hops on. #7 DUCALE split 2nd & 3rd place money when beginning his career down in CD, and the monstrous pedigree says that it was likely not an aberration.  


Saratoga          ( Current ): 6-20         ( $54.20 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )    Favorites Win %:        5-20     ( 25% )   

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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