SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/18
  
  

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That makes three profitable days to start out the week, along with two Ice Cold Triples of $275 & $313, along with a couple of profitable exactas as well. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #10 Before You

 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - 7/18

 

Race  1

1.Silver Samurai

2.Doin'ittherightway

3.Mischief Mogul

#3 SILVER SAMURAI was a well beaten but decently clear runner up in this race at Belmont a month ago, and gets a positive jockey switch this afternoon, while having a decent DRF Formulator stat behind him. Over the last 1,826 days, Breen has won with half of his eight second time starters under these conditions who crashed the fiesta less than three dozen days in the rear ( $3 x 2, $6 & $9 ). #4 DOIN'ITTHERIGHTWAY will be brought over by a shotcaller who's 3 fer 7 when getting a runner who was 1-2-3 1- to 48 days back at 21-1 or lower ( $8, $5 & $30 ). #5 MISCHIEF MOGUL has a couple'a nice morning moves on the docket for today's overture, and the 391 Tomlinson figure only adds to the allure. 

 

 

Race  2

1.Tallis

2.Amano

3.Mystical Man

#5 TALLIS hasn't been in action since finishing in the back of the pack four months ago, but we have a fondness for fading dirt sprinters going two turns on the lawn for the first time, and this one is extremely well bred for this sorta deal. Dam was 20:8-4-2 on the gramma ( $628K ), the paternal granddam was 3:2-0-1 doing the same thing, while the maternal grandsire closed out the exacta in his lone start on the sod. #8 AMANO hasn't been in action since October, but hung up an adjusted 93.9 in his lone try after a break in the action, and runs sans tes-tee-klees for the first time. #6 MYSTICAL MAN posted an adj. 85.7 the only time he skipped over the blades & is available for purchase for the first time.  OFF TURF: 12-13(AE)7-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:39, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-9-3.

 

Race  3

1.Snicket

2.Get the Candy

3.Canarsie Angel

#9 SNICKET was a bit stymied in the most recent, and is reunited with Rosario this afternoon, under whose guidance she's gone 5:1-3-1. One of those placings came in her only attempt on the Mellon, and we'll give this one a slight nod. #5 GET THE CANDY went coast to coast like butter and toast when procuring the sheepskin in Elmont two dozen days in the past, and while a bounce is always possible in the "second off the layoff/second time Lasix" deal, we'd be remiss in excluding -- especially with the hot Saez aboard. #2 CANARSIE ANGEL is another who comes in today off a wire job, but got away with some ridiculously easy fractions last time out, so we have some mixed signals.  OFF TURF: 8-1(MTO)-3-9-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-15(MTO)-16(MTO)

 

 

Race  4 

1.Puye Timing

2.Honor Hop

3.Misty Veil

#3 PUYE TIMING is on a tidy little run of 3:1-1-1 going two turns, and is the meeeeeeeeekest of a selections in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 HONOR HOP has gone 40-68-79 on the dirt thus far, so right off the bat, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Johnny V. sees fit to take the call, but we would love to see this one a bit higher than 3-1. #2 MISTY VEIL fought gallantly throughout to complete the exacta in her first start off the claim for Amoss, and picks up Irad for the New York bow.

 

Race  5

1.Hot Rod Rumble

2.Wicked Bobby

3.Juggler

#2 HOT ROD RUMBLE has a decently hidden gate move nestled in amongst some glacial workouts for today's first afternoon trip to the frontside, and $7,500 bred animal went for a whopping 325 large just two months ago, so is obviously well meant. The bloodlines are decent enough, and The As-Man is 3 for 10 with locally based dirt firsters at this level ridden by Santana ( no Lasix ), and the winners in that survey came back $5, $6 & $10. #7 WICKED BOBBY hasn't done much in the mornings to get the pulse racing, but the sire & maternal grandsire were both goodies, and needn't be much to make an impression here. #4 JUGGLER burned a little baccala first time out, but can make amends if engaged a bit more early on.  NOTE: AS OF 1:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Race  6 

1.Summer to Remember

2.Matta

3.Malthael 

#9 SUMMER TO REMEMBER is a fairly steady sort who recently finished 2nd behind a next out winner, and will be brought over today by The Toddster, who's 3 of 6 with turf stayers who were in the moneyless than 68 days back and are now up for sale for the first time ( $5, $9 & $10 ). Mild choice in a race we're really not feeling the heat from. #6 MATTA has closed out the exacta in both "second off the respite" engagements, and posted decent numbers in doing such. Five year old overcame a bunch of trouble to close out the triple in his lone partnership with Johnny. #5 MALTHAEL is confidently hiked up in class after the June 10th claim and was a troubled 3rd the only time he started on the inner.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-2(MTO)-3-4-7  NOTE: AS OF 1:25, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-10(MTO)-5.

 

Race  7

1.Point Wild

2.Mezcal

3.Super Quick

#8 POINT WILD hit the board in both starts to begin his career, but was sidelined after the second of such back in early January, so you'd be well served to take a gander at this one pre-race. The good news tho, is that there's a troika of quick morning moves on the docket for today's return, and Rosario gets the nod. #3 MEZCAL is an extremely well bred firster who went for big balloons at Keeneland back in 2019, and can obviously be any kind. #2 SUPER QUICK may have needed the last after an eight month hibernation, and was heading in the right direction before disappearing; deserves another shot getting the big "L" for the 2nd time.  NOTE: AS OF 2:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Race  8 

1.Awesome Debate

2.Pleasure Luck

3.My Roxy Girl

#8 AWESOME DEBATE was claimed out of an identical spot a touch over two months ago, and is now brought back at that very same price by Gargan. The ol' grey mare has yet to miss a superfecta after a break in the action, and you have to love that quintessentially perfect "declining" 12:6-3-1 mark when going over a fast track, as it shows she knows where the line is. #3 PLEASURE LUCK has been a part of the triple in all six of his starts to date, and we simply can't fault those taking a favorable view. #5 MY ROXY GIRL has been our favorite horse in training for several years now, and it began with admiration of her ( literal ) nose to the ground style when in deep stretch for some of her battles. $1,700 auction purchase is likely the best valued New York Bred filly of all time, as six year old has earned an incredible $576,893 which is more than 339 times the sales price. Get home safely, my "Girl". 

 

Race  9 

1.Goin' Good

2.Bye Bye

3.Honey Pants

#4 GOIN' GOOD is an extremely game gal who's only been worse than second just one time, and that was by less than two lengths. Last tally at Churchill occurred underneath T-Gaff, and we like this one's ability to be right on top of the pace, or rate a bit. #5 BYE BYE may be a bit of an overlay in this spot, having recently failed going long for the first time, but if you can see your way past that ( which we can ), then what you have is an undefeated sod sprinter at 5-1; we're in. #3 HONEY PANTS rounds out the top three ( which is another way of saying, "It's 2:04 in the morning, and we're running out of creativity."  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-6(MTO)

 

 

 

Race  10

1.Shirley Greene

2.Shining Colors

3.Morning Cocktail

#6 SHIRLEY GREENE showed a touch of improvement from the 1st start to the next, and now has the hood affixed for the first time while getting some big time improvement at the reins. Lackluster selection in a forgettable finale. #7 SHINING COLORS has done some decent work since coming out of the H.P.P. ( Horsewitness Protection Program ), and is a solid second choice. #9 MORNING COCKTAIL bested half the field in Oldsmar back in January, and is now cut back in what appears to be a soft spot for the return.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 BEFORE YOU fills the bill, as Mott is 0-10 when going green to brown with his mdclm stock off breaks of 35 to 57 days.   NOTE: AS OF 1:48, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-4-6.

 


Saratoga          ( Current ): 8-31         ( $75.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3   ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %:      10-31    ( 33.1% )  
  

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 4-25         ( $34.60 )   Beatable Favorites    0-1      ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     10-25     ( 40% )


Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2923-15087 ($25,472.60)  Beatable Favorites : 371-1361( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5706-15169 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.5%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3008-15655 ($26,291.80)   Beatable Favorites : 386-1429( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 5889-15756 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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